BY ADAM CONN:
Controversy is brewing in the NFL; To play or not to play? Unfortunately, these are the risks fantasy owners take when they agree to a 17-week schedule. The best of the best will rest leaving fantasy owners pressed and stressed in their quest for success…. Anybody want a peanut? In lieu of the Big Daddy podcast, Conn serves up his own version… Poddin me?
Chin up, 411 will get you through Week 17 just as we have all season long. (photo by espn.com)
Indianapolis at Buffalo
News flash? The Colts will rest their starters this week. The only question that remains is which running back will get the bulk of the carries. As I’ve stated before, any back facing the Bills is one worth starting. Some believe that Chad Simpson and Mike Hart will share carries the entire second half if not the final three quarters. Others like Donald Brown. I’m one of those guys. Brown’s workload was limited most of the season, especially late. Last week against the Jets he had his highest number of carries all season (15), matching his total number of carries between weeks 7-15. Getting him ready for the post-season should be near the top of the Colts priority list and the Buffalo is a great team to practice on. Brown and WR Austin Collie are the only players worth considering for Indy this week.
Buffalo will likely benefit much the way the N.Y. Jets did last week. Thomas Jones put up good numbers on the ground, 21-105 and a touchdown, but had only 34 yards on 10 carries in the first half. Fred Jackson might get off to a similar sluggish start, but against second and third stringers, Jackson’s value rises into a No. 2 RB this week. The same could be said for WR Terrell Owens and yes, even Lee Evans – IF Ryan Fitzpatrick starts. Without Fitz however, or rather with Brian Brohm, stay away from the Bills passing attack.
With Fitz, Bills 23, Colts 17
Without Fitz, Colts 17, Bills 16
New Orleans at Carolina
Saints have home field throughout the playoffs locked up, so expect to see several starters rested for at least the second half in Carolina. QB Mark Brunell will start in place of Drew Brees and as such, confidence is low this week for Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and so on. Pierre Thomas has been ruled out so it’ll be a committee approach for Mike Bell and Reggie Bush, who will both eventually step aside for Lynell Hamilton. It is wise to stay away from all Saints except for PK Garret Hartley.
Carolina has certainly looked more competent since Matt Moore took over at quarterback and I expect to see another successful game out of him and Jonathan Stewart, who is an auto Top 5 player this week assuming DeAngelo Williams (ankle) misses this game. No Steve Smith (IR) this week, which could kill Carolina’s chances for an upset, but against the Saints reserves the Panthers players (and some staff members) will attempt to save and/or audition for jobs next season.
Saints 24, Panthers 23
Jacksonville at Cleveland
MJD and Sims Walker – Next?
Based on the recent play and game-planning by Cleveland, Jerome Harrison is about as close to a must start as it gets for a running back on a crappy team. Theoretically it’s a good match up too. The Jags are average against the run and QB Derek Anderson may be able to put up respectable numbers against a dismal Jags pass defense (ranked 27th overall). Another 30 carries is expected for Harrison, who has 73 attempts, 454 yards and four scores the past two weeks. Can the Browns win four in a row? Yes.
Browns 17, Jaguars 14, OT
New England at Houston
Patriots can all but clinch the No. 3 seed with a win, but have zero shot at earning a bye. Nevertheless we’ve seen New England play all-out in the most meaningless of games, even with a 15-0 record from two years ago. I expect roughly the same approach this week against the Texas, who are destined to be an 8-8 team. I think Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker owners are good to go this week, but use caution with Laurence Maroney, who was pulled last week after a goal-line fumble. Sammy Morris took over and rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Either way, the Texans are one of eight teams to allow less than 100 yards rushing a game over the last month.
The Texans will shoot for their first winning season in franchise history and will ride the hot arm and hands of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Schaub is averaging 315 yards passing per game over the last four weeks and Johnson is logging in 140 yards and a score per game during the same period of time. Arian Foster appears to be the lead back to close the season, but it’s not the best of match ups. The Patriots rank in the top third of the league against the run and have allowed just four rushing TDs this year.
Patriots 27, Texans 20
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota
The Giants, losers of seven of their last 10, have only pride to play for having missed the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Brandon Jacobs is out, which propels Ahmad Bradshaw into a starters role, but against the Vikings it will be tough for him to crack the top 20 this week. I’ll back him as a weak No. 2, given that he’ll command a fair number of touches, but Eli Manning has that pained expression on his face again and the Giants look like a team waiting for golf season to begin. Go Steve Smith and Bradshaw gain 411 approval, as does TE Kevin Boss, but I’m not counting on any of them to carry my teams this week.
Speaking of teams stuck in reverse, The Vikings are still fighting for a bye in the post season despite losing three of four. Really Minnesota… the Bears??? Lucky for them they get a team even less motivated these days. Visanthe Shaincoe tops my Vikings starters, as the Giants have allowed the most points to opposing tight ends this season. Shaincoe has 10 touchdowns including four in the past six weeks. He will finish among the Top 5 this week at his position. The remaining Vikings players fall in line as usual. ADP, Favre, Rice = Start. Harvin = Flex.
Vikings 30, Giants 20
San Francisco at St. Louis
Last week I called for Alex Smith to post 260 yards and two TDs…. 230 and one didn’t cut it. The Rams pass defense presents another possibility for Smith to achieve solid numbers. I’m maintaining my stance on two touchdowns (one to Crabtree, one to V.Davis), but I’ll lower his yardage totals to 235. Frank Gore cracked 1,000 yards last week, all the while missing four games earlier this season. He has 69 carries over the last three weeks (23 per game) and he should maintain that pace against a miserable Rams run defense. Gore is a Top 5 candidate this week as is Davis and the 49ers defense, which tallied three defensive TDs against St. Louis back in Week 4.
Steven Jackson is expected to play against the 49ers this week and is a must start. This is also a 1 p.m. kickoff, so if there are any last minute changes to his game-day status, you’ll have a chance to pull him out of your lineup. Ignore all other St. Louis players.
With Jackson: 49ers 31, Rams 16
Without Jackson: 49ers 34, Rams 9
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
In what woulda, shoulda, coulda been a career game for Jason Snelling last week, the Falcons rolled out a RBBC approach against the woeful Bills. 28 carries split between Snelling (15) and Jerious Norwood (13) totaled 120 yards. Atlanta rushed 37 times in all and a similar game plan could be in order again this week at Tampa. The Bucs have allowed 146 rushing yards on 31 carries per game over the last month. They have also allowed a rushing touchdown a game so far this season. Theoretically that belongs to Snelling as the goal-line threat, which is why he’ll once again get the 411 nod over Norwood. Roddy White is also a very good option as TE Tony Gonzalez (calf) may not suit up in the finale.
It was nice to see Cadillac Williams post his first 100-yard game of the season last week and it’s also nice to see that he’ll finish a full season (knock-knock) for the first time…. ever. Wow. He’s averaging a healthy 4.1 yards per carry en route to 200+ carries and 800+ yards, second only to his rookie campaign in 2005 (290-1,178) – Awesome comeback. We’re afraid that last week, however, was Williams’ best effort as this week’s opponent is allowing just 73 rushing yards per game over the last four games. The Falcons stifled the Bills and Jets recently and held the Bucs to just 73 yards in Week 12. We don’t see Cadillac or Derek Ward hitting 50 this week, especially without lead blocker Earnest Graham (toe) out for the season. TE Kellen Winslow is the only must start on this team. WR Antonio Bryant (3-91, 1TD in Week 12) is a good flex option.
Falcons 26, Buccaneers 17
Pittsburgh at Miami
Santonio Holmes has a chance to post elite numbers this week against a soft Dolphins pass defense and possibly without Hines Ward (hamstring). The Dolphins have allowed more 20+ yard receptions than any other team this season, so Holmes and potentially Mike Wallace are primed for big games. Miami also just lost MLB Channing Crowder, making Rashard Mendenhall a decent enough option. Mendenhall scored in three of four games in December, salvaging an otherwise pedestrian month from a yardage point of view (64-230-3.6 ypc). Crowder’s absence could also pave the way for Heath Miller to have another solid outing in has what already has been a career year for the tight end.
Ricky Williams, a-la Cadillac, is having a comeback season of his own, but will be relegated to a weak No. 2 RB play this week – and that’s if he suits up after suffering a shoulder injury last week. Pittsburgh got beat up on the ground by the Ravens, but they’re still the third best team against the run and names like Lex Hilliard is far from threatening. Chad Henne has thrown for 300+ yards in three of four games, but has just four TDs to six INTs over that time. Like many teams against the Troy Polamalu-less Steelers yards will come easily, but in a must-win situation, Pittsburgh prevails.
Steelers 27, Dolphins 24
Chicago at Detroit
Matt Forte’s only 100 yard game this year came against the Lions in Week 4. Congrats, Matt. You get an actual plug from 411 this week. Enjoy just your fifth 4.0 or more yards-per-carry game this season. And sure, I’ll jump on the Devin Aromashodu bandwagon. No Devin Hester; No Johnny Knox… why not. Greg Olsen? You betcha – the Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends this year. Hell, I’ll even plug Jay Cutler this week if he’s your backup to Manning, Brees or Rodgers.
Calvin Johnson is a start because he’s Calvin Johnson. I mean, the guy caught 96 of 130 passing yards from Drew Stanton last week. He managed to salvage something out of nothing, which is just about what Detroit has to offer this week as well.
Bears 31, Lions 10
Philadelphia at Dallas
Eagles soaring into the post season and can clinch the division with a win. DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek have been on fire and are must starts, but don’t expect game-breaking performances. The last two weeks the Cowboys were able to tame the Saints and shut out an improved Redskins offense, or so we thought. In Week 9, Dallas held Donovan McNabb to 227 yards and one TD to Celek, who had 3 receptions for 39 yards. Jackson had just two catches for 29 yards. Stay away from Brian Westbrook or LeSean McCoy. The Eagles, who are using a two-to-three RB committee, are barely averaging 100 yards rushing over the last month, and the Cowboys have been tops in the league over that same period of time, allowing just 70 rushing yards a game.
Miles Austin continues to shine and like DeSean Jackson is a must start. Austin has at least six receptions and 71 yards receiving in his last five games to go with four touchdowns, giving him 11 total. In addition, Jason Witten has come to life since Thanksgiving and has three 100+ yard games since Turkey Day. The Eagles allow the most receptions and yards to opposing tight ends… Gobble-Gobble. On the flip side, Roy Williams is sulking, and has just two receptions in the last two games. Marion Barber and Felix Jones are splitting carries at about a 55-45 ratio, limiting their fantasy values. If you’re in a TD weighted league, Barber passes as a No. 3/flex option. Otherwise, don’t expect more than 45-55 yards apiece, coincidence unintended.
Eagles 23, Cowboys 17
Kansas City at Denver
Josh McDaniels has a funny way of coaching a team into the playoffs. Apparently the strategy is to start 6-0, lose seven of your next nine games, and then bench your best player in a must-win situation. Check. Brandon Marshall will not play because according to McDaniels, Marshall has been dogging it with a hamstring injury. “We’re looking to put the 45 guys on the field on Sunday that want to play together, want to help us try to win and qualify for the playoffs,” McDaniels said. “… And anybody that showed any indifference to that, we’ll play without them.” Mmmkay. This is the same Marshall that not only set a record with 21 receptions three weeks ago, but has 15 more since and was voted to the Pro Bowl. TE Tony Scheffler was demoted to the scout team, WR Eddie Royal (scrub) might miss the game with a head injury…. RB Knowshon Moreno is a good play this week, by the way. He would have been a great play, but um… see above.
While the Broncos defense has been solid most of the year, recent trends suggest that the Chiefs could pose some problems. Denver has allowed 28, 20 and 30 points the last three weeks. The Chiefs, in losing five straight (I can’t believe this team beat Pittsburgh), have found a grove with Jamaal Charles and recently got Dwayne Bowe back from suspension. Nevertheless, Matt Cassel’s horrific season continues and throwing an average of 40 passes per game (over the last three weeks) is not a winning formula. I would avoid all Chiefs players this week with the exception of Charles, who has three straight 100+ yard games and a touchdown in six of his last seven games.
I would love to see the Chiefs roll in this one, but on four Matt Prater FGs and a Moreno TD the Broncos win 19-10
Baltimore at Oakland
Pass the Rice, please. Over the last four weeks, the Ravens are the third best rushing team in the league (168 yards per game, 1.5 TDs). Ray Rice has 549 total yards (448 rushing) in that span and gets to face the 29th ranked run defense in the league. The Raiders gave up 148 to Jerome Harrison last week. Nuff said. I’d shy away from Joe Flacco and company unless you’ve been hit with the Week 17 stud-benching curse.
Avoid any and all Oakland players.
Ravens 27, Raiders 6
Tennessee at Seattle
From 0-6 to possibly 8-8, the Titans will be a force next season. Their surge into 2010 will continue this week at Seattle and at or near the top of the charts will once again sit Chris Johnson. Johnson’s near-record setting season is in large part due to Vince Young, who has opened up the Titans offense considerably since Week 8. Johnson may actually crack 100 yards both rushing and receiving this week as Seattle has allowed 288 yards passing and seven scores over the last four weeks. With that in mind, Young makes a good start if he’s your backup to P. Manning, Brees, Rivers or Rodgers. Match up alone, he’s worth considering as well. Lately, however, it’s been hard picking a Titans receiver as there’s been a different team leader in each of the last three weeks. Kenny Britt has cooled off considerably over the last few games.
Seattle…. What an uninspired bunch. Technically Matt Hasselbeck and T.J. Houshmandzadeh have a good match up, but Housh has had a miserable season save for two games and Hass has tossed eight picks in his last two games. Julius Jones added an ankle injury to his aggravated ribs injury… maybe Jim Mora Jr. will actually wise up and start Justin Forsett (14-70 last week). If so, plug him in as a No. 2 back. Otherwise, move on.
Titans 27, Seahawks 13
Washington at San Diego
Speaking of uninspiring, the Redskins have nothing to look forward to except yet another coaching change, another offensive coordinator change, overpriced free agents and a disgruntled (fill in players name here). However, the Chargers will rest most of their starters this week, allowing the Redskins a chance to post better than expected numbers. RB Quinton Ganther makes an okay play this week as does TE Fred Davis. Jason Campbell? Errr, no.
The Chargers will employ second and third stringers this week, so say goodbye to LT, Gates, V.Jackson and Phillip Rivers and even Darren Sproles as fantasy options. If you want to make a splash pick up RB Mike Tolbert at the last minute and roll the dice.
Chargers 20, Redskins 17
Green Bay at Arizona
Ryan Grant giveth, and he taketh awayeth. My colleague Jeff Thitoff has been boasting non-stop about Ryan Grant’s leap into the Top 8 among running backs, which is where Tito predicted Grant would finish by season’s end. As I tried to explain, it was circumstantial due to injuries and playoff strategery. Grant will now lose his grip in the rankings as he is poised to sit most Sunday’s game while Steven Jackson rightfully takes his spot back. Grant and a host of other starters (Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, etc.) will rest as the Packers will enter the playoffs as a fifth or sixth seed based on the outcome of the Eagles/Cowboys game. Shy away from the Pack unless you want to take a flyer on Brandon Jackson and/or Ahman Green… yeah I said it, Ahman Green.
The Cardinals have a shot at a No. 2 seed and a first round bye, but it is contingent upon whether or not the Vikings lose. If so, Arizona will go all out to earn a week off. If not, expect them to scale back on offense. Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin and Wells’ status remain a question mark and you should juggle your roster accordingly if you can. Many roster deadlines are at 1 p.m. but if you have the option to make subs before the 4 p.m. games pay close attention to the Giants/Vikings early game. No matter, Steve Breaston makes a good option this week. Green Bay is strong against the run and he may see the field more than any other receiver this week.
Cardinals 24, Packers 20
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets
Flex scheduling has never failed so miserably. The Bengals will likely rest their starters in the second half, if not sooner, and allow an underachieving luck-box Jets team coast into the playoffs with no regard for the integrity of the game…. I’m not bitter. Personally I’m pulling hard for L.J., but there are very few appealing options for Cincy assuming the worst, which is no Carson Palmer, Ochocinco, Cedric Benson et all. Frankly, given the Jets defense (see Revis, Darrelle), Benson would have been the only lock of the bunch.
Regardless of how many Bengals sit down, Thomas Jones remains the only quality start for New York.
Who Dey? Sadly, no.
Jets 16, Bengals 13
