All Tebow All The Time

Apparently a memo was sent out late Sunday night that said all sportswriters and pundits must do nothing but talk/write about Tim Tebow today. I must not be on the mailing list because I didn’t get it , but how can you not write about the guy. Tebow’s 59-yard field goal to send this weekend’s game to overtime looked like it would have been good from 69. Tebow’s 51-yard field goal to win the game was about as clutch as it gets. Who can’t be impressed with Tebow after he held perennial All-Pro quarterback Caleb Hanie to just 115 yards passing. With all the talk of Tebow’s fourth quarter heroics, most have overlooked his nine solo tackles (Tebow doesn’t need assists even in his stat column) two sacks and four tackles for loss. Perhaps most impressive was him forcing Marion Barber to run out of bounds so the Bears couldn’t run out the clock and then stripping Barber of the ball in overtime when the Bears were in field goal range. Don’t let anybody tell you any different. This was all Tebow.

Sure those contributions were done by players known as Matt Prater, D.J. Williams and Wesley Woodyard, but before Tebow these players didn’t really care about winning. They didn’t believe. The Broncos 7-1 record over the last eight weeks is based solely on Tebow’s erratic passing and will to win. Everybody knows that talent on the field has little to do with the outcome of a game when one player really, really wants to win. Every pre-game show should ignore the x’s and o’s and just tell us on a scale of 1-10 how badly each team wants to win. I’ve even decided to adopt this winning philosophy in my professional life. Prior to Tebow I always wanted to win a Pulitzer, now I really, really want to win a Pulitzer so I figure I am now a lock to win one. My mom is going to be so proud of me.

Snark aside, I’m not up for a debate on what type of quarterback Tim Tebow will be two or three years for now. I’ll leave that to others, but Tebowmania needs a heavy dose of reality. Just three of Tebow’s wins have come against teams with winning records and two of those teams (Chicago and Oakland) were without not just their No. 1 quarterback but their No. 1 running back as well. Tebow’s passer rating in the first three quarters is lower than Blaine Gabbert and Curtis Painter. While the Broncos are 7-1 since Tebow was inserted into the line-up the Broncos have outscored their opponents only 164-162 and those opponents have a combined record of 39-52. Yes, the Broncos are winning, but they are struggling to win against some pretty weak teams. The Broncos defense, running game and special teams are keeping the Broncos in the game despite Tebow. That should be the story, but in a league built around quarterbacks and the passing game we get Tebow and his will to win and failure to quit. If only somebody had told Jack Del Rio, Toddy Haley and Tony Sparano about this magical elixir they might not spend this Christmas looking for jobs.

Oh and for all you Tebow fans out there, I don’t hate him. I don’t dislike him because he is a Christian and wants to tell me about it every time a camera is within the same zip code. I hate the distortion that is “Tebowmania” and those who feed off of it.

Don’t Be Like The Bears/Texans

With parity reigning supreme in the NFL each teams playoff stock can rise and fall in the blink of an eye. The Chicago Bears are in the thick of things for a wildcard ticket in the NFC. After Jay Cutler suffered a thumb injury this weekend the Bears will have to lean on Caleb Hanie and/or Nathan Enderle until at least Week 16 or 17. The Houston Texans, in the running for a first round playoff bye and home field advantage, will now have to count on Matt Leinart to carry their team for the rest of the season. The lesson here for fantasy owners is a pretty simple one. Don’t get caught counting on a Leinart or Hanie. If you own Arian Foster look to pick up Ben Tate. If you own Aaron Rodgers make sure that should he get injured you are not forced to count on guys like Matt Moore or Joe Flacco. After 11 Weeks you want to make sure that you season doesn’t go up in smoke because you lost one player. Being proactive and shoring up your depth now is going to be much cheaper than trying to do so after your stud goes down. This doesn’t mean you should mortgage everything for depth, but giving up a No. 3 wide receiver for Ben Tate if you are a Foster owner is pretty cheap insurance.

As If I Needed Another Reason To Love Aaron Rodgers

I have no problem admitting to having an Aaron Rodgers man crush. Who wouldn’t have one if you had him on as many teams as I do this season? I love him so much I even laugh at his pathetically bad State Farm commercials. According to ESPN standard scoring Rodgers worst week was Week 3 against the Chicago Bears when he threw for just 297 yards and three scores. However, the things that Rodgers says off the field, or while being interviewed on it, only makes my man crush stronger.

“I just think it just goes to the point that you can’t take a whole lot of what those people say too personally because they’re shock experts on ESPN and NFL Network. A lot of them are just going for the shock value of what they’re saying, as is typified by that guy on ESPN, I don’t want to even say his name. He works for “First Take”…All he does is say things that are so ridiculous just for the shock value.”

That ‘guy on ESPN’ Rodgers is referring to is one Skip Bayless and if you have ever watched the show “First Take” you know just what Rodgers is talking about. It isn’t just Skip Bayless and shock comments that make so many of ESPN’s studio shows a struggle to watch. It is also the over the top and worthless analysis. Watch any Monday Night Football game and you are likely to hear of at least one pass or run a weel that is the greatest pass or run that Jon Gruden has ever seen. Take Herm Edwards who can at times make Stephen A. Smith seem sedate. ESPN still has first class sports coverage, a number of guys that to first rate work (see Karabell, Eric and Schefter, Adam), and it would be a dark day should they ever leave the air, but there are times where you can see that they clearly value schtick over content. Of course, I would probably livestream the Sunday Scramble in a clown suit while dancing the polka if it meant more hits so I probably shouldn’t be casting too many stones.

Waiver Wire

Miami Dolphins Quarterback Matt Moore - Moore only had 160 yards passing, but it was the second time in three weeks that he had three touchdown passes in a game. If you are in a two quarterback league or playing in a deep league and have lost your starter to injuyr, Moore is worth a look and currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

Oakland Raiders Carson Palmer – Palmer’s numbers were limited in part to the Raiders getting up big early and coasting for most of the game. Still, thanks to a one-yard touchdown run Palmer finished one point out of the top 10 at his position in ESPN standard scoring. Since taking over as the Raider’s starting quarterback Palmer has averaged 265 yards passing and two touchdown passes per game. Palmer is currently available in nearly half of all league polled.

Detroit Lions Running Back Kevin Smith – Smith will be the hottest pickup of the week after posting 201 total yards and two scores against the Panthers last week. Fantasy owners need to remember who the Lions were playing and not expect a repeat performance, but Smith is worth a pickup in all leagues and formats. He is currently available in all leagues polled.

Detroit Lions Wide Receiver Nate Burleson – Burleson was a popular sleeper pick during the preseason that hasn’t panned out having been an after thought in the team’s passing game for most of the season. Over the last two games he has averaged eight touches and 73 yards rushing per game. Burleson is currently available in 85 percent of leagues polled and should be considered a low end No. 3 wide receiver for deep leagues.

Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Jabar Gaffney – Gaffney’s value will take a hit once Santana Moss returns to the lineup. Until that happens Gaffney is the Redskins No. 1 wide receiver in an offense that will likely be playing a lot of games from behind. He isn’t likely to duplicate his Week 11 performance any time soon (115 rec. 1 TD), but he is worth a look as a low end No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receiver Laurent Robinson – Robinson led the team in targets last week with 11 and has scored five touchdowns over the last four weeks. Once Austin Miles returns to the lineup Robinson’s value is likely to take a hit, but you can’t argue with his production over the last month. Robinson is currently available in half of all leagues.

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receiver Torrey Smith – Smith’s production is likely to be hit or miss, but he showed last week with 165 yards receiving and one touchdown just how high of a fantasy ceiling he has. He is worth stashing if you have the roster spot and worth a spot start depending on matchup. Smith is currently available in half of all leagues polled.

San Francisco 49ers Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree – Crabtree has had at least five receptions and 50 yards receiving in four of his last five games. He isn’t a valuable commodity in standard scoring leagues, but could be a decent No. 3 in PPR leagues. Crabtree is currently available in just under 40 percent of leagues polled.

Run The Damned Ball

The Ravens, one week removed from being considered one of the elites in the AFC after completing their season sweep of the Steelers, lost 22-17 to the Seattle Seahawks. For much of the season the Seahawks have shown to have a very strong rush defense and a pretty pathetic pass defense. It makes sense for teams to look to attack them through the air, but there is no excuse for Ray Rice having just five carries. Rice only had two carries in the first half! It wasn’t that they were down big early. The Seahawks led 19-7 at half. It wasn’t that Rice was ineffective. Rice finished the day with a 5.4 yards per carry average. What it was, was bad coaching.

Stop Running The Damned Ball With That Guy

I didn’t see Mike Shanahan’s press conference after his Redskins lost 20-9 to the Miami Dolphins but the first question had better of gone something like this. “Ryan Torain hasn’t averaged more than 2.5 yards per carry in five weeks. Roy Helu just came off a game where he totaled 146 offensive yards. So what the hell were you thinking giving Torain 11 carries to Helu’s six?” Of course, I remember Shanahan saying at the start of the season that he was will to stake his reputation on Rex Grossman and John Beck so it isn’t like we should put much stock in any answer he gives. At this point, I really think that the only reason Shanahan is still coach is so he can screw with fantasy owners.

Attention Walking Dead Writers

Please stop trying to make your series more than it is. Stop trying to play with Man Vs. Nature, Man Vs Man or Man Vs. Anything other than Zombie. The deepest issue you should deal with is Bullets Vs. Blade when it comes to fighting zombies. The correct answer, by the way, is blade. Save the deep stuff for the unfinished novel collecting dust in your desk that you have been trying to finish for the last 10 years.

*writer’s note* Adam has a novel collecting dust that he has been trying to finish for 10 years.

No Celebrations Allowed

Denver Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker catches a touchdown reception, goes to his knee and then salutes. Decker says that his celebration was simply ‘saluting the men and woman in the military on Veteran’s Weekend!’ and the result is a lot of angry fans. Not to sound all un-patriotic, and I rarely ever say this, but I’m with the league on this one. It isn’t that I don’t support the troops, but a rule is a rule. Let it slide and next week tribute celebrations will be just as big as the no huddle offense. After all how can you fine Mike Wallace for his salute to breast cancer survivors or Arian Foster’s salute to the Special Olypmics? Then pretty soon we will have Mark Sanchez saluting his offensive lineman’s daughter who couldn’t make it to the game because she was sick with the flu. Few of these celebrations will have anything to do with who or what they are saluting. Even Decker’s was odd, why take a knee and then salute? The rule is the rule. If you fine Troy Polamalu for calling his wife after sustaining an injury, you fine Decker for his salute.

This certainly doesn’t mean I support the rule. If I ever get the chance to rewrite the NFL rulebook I’m drawing the celebration line at the use of lasers and dry ice, everything else is fair game. If you want to blame anybody for Decker’s penalty and possible fine, blame these guys…

Wavier Wire

Houston Texans Quarterback Matt Leinart - With reports that Matt Schaub could be done for the season the Texans are looking at the possibility of Leinart under center for the rest of the season. The Texans have gone run heavy with the injury to Andre Johnson and that will likely remain the status quo with Leinart starting. It is an explosive offense and Leinart is worth a look in deeper leagues or two quarterback leagues, but owners will need to be prepared for limited upside from him.

Denver Broncos Running Back Lance Ball –  With both McGahee and Moreno suffering injuries last week Ball received the majority of carries at running back. Ball only averaged 3.2 yards per carry, but had 30 carries for 96 yards. If both running backs miss time, Ball could make a decent flex option due to the bulk of carries he could receive.
San Diego Chargers Wide Receiver Vincent Brown – The Chargers rookie wide receiver has averaged 88 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per game over the last two contests and is current available in nearly all leagues. He makes a good addition for depth or as a possible No. 3 wide receiver with some upside.

Chicago Bears Wide Receiver Earl Bennett – Despite being  a hot pickup last week, Bennet is still available in nearly half of leagues polled. After another strong performance last week (6 rec. 81 yds) Bennett is averaging 5.5 receptions ad 88 yards over the last two weeks.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown – Over the last four weeks Brown has averaged 91 yards receiving per game and has scored one touchdown. It isn’t often that you can get a legit No. 2 wide receiver off the waiver wire, but Brown is looking just like that. He is currently available in nearly 50 percent of leagues polled.

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receiver Laurent Robinson – Over the last three weeks Robinson has scored four touchdowns while averaging 70 yards receiving per game. With Miles Austin out with a hamstring injury Robinson makes a nice No. 3 wide receiver option with upside. Robinson is currently available in nearly 90 percent of leagues polled.

Philadelphia Eagles Tight End Brent Celek – Celek may be the low man on the totem pole when it comes to options in the Eagles passing game, but the tight end is make the most of his chances. Over his last four games Celek has scored two touchdowns and hit at least  the 50 yard receiving mark in each of thm. Celeck is currently available in nearly 90 percent of leagues polled.

The Dolphins Can’t Do Anything Right

Unless Andrew Luck loses his right arm in some freak accident he is going to be the No. 1 draft pick. The consensus among pundits and experts is that he is a quarterback prospect that the NFL hasn’t seen since Peyton Manning. If, for some reason, whoever holds the No. 1 pick next year doesn’t want to take Luck it has been estimated by some that the pick could be trade for as many as three future No. 1 picks. The Dolphins hadn’t done much right this season, entering this week 0-7 and tied for the lead in the ‘Suck For Luck’ sweepstakes. Their season is already a waste. They have a coach that looks like he could be fired any day now. They haven’t won a game at home in nearly a year. Who cares if you go 0-16? Are teams taunting the Lions because they went 0-16 in 2008? If I’m Bill Pollian, the Indianapolis Colts GM, I’m not giving some cheap team poster to the first 1k fans through the gates. I’m giving the first 52 through the gates a number and helmet. Give me 0-16 and Andrew Luck over 1-15 and Matt Barkley any day.

Allow Replay For Helmet To Helmet Contact

I’m all for the penalties for helmet-to-helmet contact. Anybody who thinks otherwise needs to read a bit more about Dave Duerson. The problem that I do have is that the calls are too inconsistent. The officials have been told to err on the side of caution which means a number of flags on plays where there was no helmet-to-helmet contact. There have also been a number of plays where there was clear helmet-to-helmet contact with no flag thrown. Look no further than Ray Lewis’s hit on Hines Ward this week. Deep in Ravens territory, Ray Lewis stopped Hines Ward just short of a first down with a vicious hit. With fourth and one to go the Steelers were going for it, or at least going to attempt to draw the Ravens offsides. John Harbaugh challenged the play before the snap and replay overturned the call on the field (a completion) forcing a Steelers field goal. Of course replay also clearly showed helmet-to-helmet contact, which completion or not should have resulted in a 15-yard penalty and a Steelers first down. I don’t blame officials for getting calls like this wrong. I blame the NFL for not letting them get it right.

More Tebow

I got an email from a friend who has read my last two Tuesday Hangovers shortly after the Broncos win against the Raiders. He was worried that I would have nothing to write about with Tim Tebow playing ‘lights out’ (his words not mine) against the Raiders and if I was ready to eat some crow. Tebow fans need to settle down. He turned in a great fantasy day, but I watched a lot of that game and I would hardly define his play as ‘lights out’. Carson Palmer’s three INTs and Willis McGahee’s two touchdown runs had a lot more to do with the Broncos winning that game than Tebow did. What Sunday’s game showed is that much like the Dolphins game, if Tebow gets a lot of help the Broncos can win with him. Of course, he still completed less than 50 percent of his passes and if you can find one guy that did that in the HOF or in a Pro Bowl I would be surprised.

Waiver Wire
Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow – Tebow’s play isn’t always going to be pretty, but it can be effective from a fantasy standpoint. In three starts this season, Tebow has turned in two top five scoring performances at his position. With Tebow’s ability to run the ball he always has the potential to turn in big days. He is currently available in just over 30 percent of league’s polled.

Washington Redskins Running Back Roy Helu – Helu is likely to be the hottest waiver wire target this week after totaling 146 offensive yards against a tough 49ers defense last week. Helu only had 10 rushes for 41 yards, but had 14 receptions for 105 yards as John Beck was forced into a lot of check downs. Helu could make a nice No. 2 RB down the stretch run if he can survive the Mike Shanahan running back carousel. He is currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receiver Laurent Robinson – Over the last five weeks Robinson has either scored a touchdown or totaled more than 100 yards receiving. Robinson has proven to be an effective producer with limited touches and with Austin Miles reportedly out 2-4 weeks with another hamstring injury, Robinson is line for more targets. Robinson is currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown - Over the last three weeks Brown has averaged 93 yards receiving and scored one touchdown. Those number would be even better had Mike Wallace not cut in front of a would be touchdown pass that was clearly intended for Brown. Regardless, over the last month Brown has become a key part to the Steelers pass first offense. He is currently owned in just 35 percent of leagues polled.

New York Jets Tight End Dustin Keller – Even after missing most of the first half due to injury Keller finished with 64 yards receiving. It marked the third straight week that Keller had move than 50 yards receiving. If you missed out on the top tier tight ends in your draft, Keller is a nice option to have. He is currently available in 35 percent of leagues polled.

Philadelphia Eagles Tight End Brent Celek – After being little more than an afterthought for the first part of the season, Celek has seen his role increase in the team’s passing game. Over the last three weeks Celek has scored two touchdowns and averaged 65 yards receiving per game. Celek is currently available in nearly 90 percent of leagues polled.

The Hurry Up Is Not For Everyone

I think that we can all agree that the NFL is currently in the Madden era where passing is king and everyone runs some version of the hurry-up offense. Even the Seahawks are doing it. The same Seahawks that rank 31st in yards per game. The same Seahawks that are averaging five offensive penalties per game. The same offense led by Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. Is the hurry-up offense really something that a mistake prone and inefficient offense should be running?

The Tebow pose. Bravo, Stephen Tulloch.

Tebow Time

I know I run the risk of turning Tuesday Hangover into All Tebow All The Time, but I just can’t resist…

It was 38-3 late in the third quarter and the broadcast had just cut to a shot of Matthew Stafford shaking his hand after getting it hit by a Bronco. This led the broadcast crew to question what Stafford was still doing in the game. It is a legitimate question. Stafford is hardly the most durable player to play in the league and the Lions clearly had the game wrapped up. However, the better question is what was Tim Tebow still doing in the game? At that point he was 6-for-20 for 74 yards and had spent most of the day looking even worse than that stat line might suggest. This quote from Michael Silver helps sum up the thoughts of one Lion on Tebows play.

“Can you believe ’15’ ?” one Detroit Lions defended asked after his team’s 45-10 immolation of Tebow and the Denver Broncos. “Come on – that’s embarrassing. I mean, it’s a joke. We knew all week that if we brought any kind of defensive pressure, he could do anything. In the second half it got boring out there. We were like, ‘Come on- that’s your quarterback? Seriously?”

Silver said that he spoke to numerous coaches and front-office folks around the league after the game and the description of Tebow’s play wasn’t too kind.

atrocious, terrible, completely exposed and not even close to ready kept coming up in these conversations.

The Broncos are in a tricky spot. It should be clear to anyone that Tebow is not getting a chance at the starting spot based on the merits of his play, but rather based on the believe from his most hardcore supporters that being a good guy is a key component to quarterback play. I’d be willing to bet that there are a number of guys in the Broncos locker room that have had friends cut from one NFL team or another. I would be willing to bet that a number of those friends were good guys, maybe even better guys than *gasp* Tim Tebow. How many more games can the Broncos send out Tebow when his play clearly doesn’t merit it without causing a good deal of resentment in the locker room.

Coaching Hot Seat
I’m not going to bother with a list, but just say Norv Turner deserves a spot on any one that is made. Turner was supposed to be the guy to get the Chargers over the hump and secure their first Super Bowl victory. Despite playing in a division where the other teams have gone a combined 69-123 from 2007-10 the Chargers struggle early, make the play-offs and then flame out. The window NFL teams have to win a Super Bowl can close quickly and if the Chargers feel it hasn’t shut on them yet, this offseason might be the time to look at a different coach.

Waiver Wire Targets

New England Patriots Running Back Kevin Faulk - In his first game of the season Faulk was the team’s most utilized running back playing in 39 of 58 offensive snaps. Faulk is unlikely to lead the team in carries on a week-to-week basis, but his value as a receiver out of the backfield makes him an interesting flex option in PPR leagues. Faulk is currently available in all leagues polled.

Tennessee Titans Running Back Javon Ringer – Chris Johnson’s contract and the hope he might turn things around are the only two things keeper Ringer from getting a bigger role in the Titans offense. In nearly any other situation Johnson’s 2.8 yard per carry average for the season would have found him on the bench long ago. Look for Ringer to get a bigger workload as long as Johnson struggles. Ringer and Johnson split carries evenly last week with Ringer averaging 4.3 yards per carry and Johnson averaging 2.4. If you have the roster space, stashing Ringer might pay off down the road. Regardless, he is a player to keep a close eye on.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown – The Patriots secondary keyed on taking away the big play this past weekend leaving plenty of space for Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders to work underneath. As a result, Brown led the team with 15 targets finishing with nine receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown. As more teams look to take away Wallace, Brown’s role in the offense could grow. He should be considered a No. 3 receiver and is available in nearly 80 percent of leagues polled.

San Francisco 49ers Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree – Crabtree’s value is going to be limited as long as the 49ers remain a run-first offense. No team has fewer pass attempts than the 49ers, a situation unlikely to change as long as Frank Gore remains healthy. Still, Crabtree has shown to hold value averaging 56 yards receiving per game over the last month. Crabtree should be considered a deep league No. 3 receiver with some upside and is available in nearly half of all leagues polled.

Seattle Seahawks Wide Receiver Doug Baldwin – Baldwin leads all Seahawks wide receivers with 70 yards receiving per game over the last month. With the shaky play at quarterback, Baldwin’s doesn’t have much upside. However, as often as the Seahawks are forced to play from behind Baldwin should have plenty of chances to contribute. He is currently available in nearly 80 percent of leagues polled.

Philadelphia Eagles Tight End Brent Celek – Celek turned in his best performance of the season against the Cowboys totaling seven receptions, 97 yards receiving and one touchdown reception. With the number of weapons in the Eagles offense, Celek is often an afterthought, but with his second straight strong performance could see his role increase. Celek is currently available in just under 95 percent of all leagues.

We have a tab thingy up at the top of our page for Tuesday Hangover and we get some hits each week on Tuesday Hangover so we might as well have one right? Anyway, each week I will give you some of my thoughts and insights from the past week. I don’t promise it to be informative, entertaining or even all about football, but at least we will have something to fill the tab thingy at the top of our site.

All Tebow All The Time

I apologize for starting this whole thing off with Tebow talk. I’m tired of it and you are probably tired of it, but I have to get in my two cents. Yesterday’s game, according to most pundits, proved that Tim Tebow is an awful NFL quarterback and not even Tim Tebow’s horrible play can prevent Tim Tebow from winning….or something. There won’t be too many games where the Broncos are only going to be down by 15 points with five minutes left after Tebow goes 4-14 for 40 yards. There won’t be too many games where they then score a touchdown, recover an onside kick, score another touchdown, convert a two point conversion, lose the overtime coin toss, recover a fumble at the other team’s 32 and then get a 52 yards field goal. According to advancednflstats.com the probability of the Broncos winning last week’s game when they started at their 20-yard line with 5:23 left in the game was around one percent. The bottom line is that there was a lot more luck in Sunday’s game than Tebow magic.

Run The Damned Ball!

The Lions averaged 5.2 yards per carry against the Falcons last week and finished with just 18 carries between Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams. I get that it is a passing league and that most offensive coordinators call games like a 12-year old playing Madden, but when you are averaging over five yards per carry you should be running the ball more than 18 times.

Promotion/Relegation Would Be The Best Thing To Happen To The NFL

For non-soccer fans a quick explanation…You start with two leagues. League 1 is the league everybody wants to be in. They have the best players, the best facilities and most importantly all the tv money. League 2 is filled with teams that want to be in League 1. At the end of the season the worst team in League 1 is sent to League 2 and the best team in League 2 replaces that team in League 1.

Think the Super Bowl is a high stakes game? Imagine a game were the loser gets sent to the UFL to spend the season playing the Las Vegas Locomotives, Omaha Nighthawks, Sacramento Mountain Lions and the Virginia Destroyers. Do you think teams like the Kansas City Chiefs would leave 32 million dollars in cap space on the table if there was a chance they could miss out on all the tv money the league doles out? Why should the Colts, Rams, Dolphins or whoever ends up with the worst record get rewarded with Andrew Luck and not punished for forcing the rest of us to watch 16 weeks of horrible football? No more stealing franchises. If LA wants a third team in California, start a UFL team and play your way in. Seriously, this is the greatest idea ever. You are welcome.

Waiver Wire Targets For Week 8

Cleveland Browns Running Back Montario Hardesty – Hardesty’s 33 carries for 95 yards was about as ugly to watch as the game itself, but it has earned him more carries even when Peyton Hillis returns to the lineup according to Pat Shurmur. With Hardesty splitting carries I don’t see him as more than a flex play, but an injury to Peyton Hillis could change that quickly. Hardesty is currently available in nearly half of all leagues.

Kansas City Chiefs Running Back Jackie Battle – Battle followed up his 119 yard rushing performance against the Colts with 76 yards rushing against the Raiders last week. Look for Battle to get the bulk of the carries heading forward and to be a nice flex option in most leagues barring injury. He is currently available in nearly half of all leagues.

Dallas Cowboys Running Back DeMarco Murray – Murray is likely to be the hottest pickup this week after rushing for 253 yards and one touchdown last week. Murray won’t be playing the Rams every week, but he will be the primary runner until Felix Jones returns from injury and could even stake a claim to the No. 1 job. He is currently available in nearly 70 percent of leagues polled.

Denver Broncos Wide Receiver Demaryius Thomas – Thomas is only worth a look if you are in a pretty deep league or feel like gambling. He only had three receptions for 27 yards against the Dolphins, but he did find the end zone and was the most targeted receiver for the Broncos last week with 10. If you have the roster space you could get ahead of the curve by picking him up this week and drop him next week if it doesn’t pan out. Thomas is currently available in nearly all leagues.

Oakland Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey – I’ve written about Heyward-Bey three straight weeks now so I’ll make it short and sweet. Heyward-Bey has totaled at least 82 yards receiving for four straight weeks. He is currently available in nearly half of all leagues.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown – Brown had seven receptions and 102 yards receiving against the Cardinals last week. If Hines Ward misses any time with the ankle injury he suffered last week, Brown could make a nice No. 3 wide receiver or flex play. He is currently available in 95 percent of leagues polled.

BY JEFF THITOFF

Let’s get this out of the way first. In the preseason, I predicted Ryan Grant would be a top-8 back this year. I was ridiculed by many.

Grant is now 11^th, but just ten points out of seventh. A decent finish by him and my guru-ness will be proven again.

Moving on…

Anxious moments for many this week, myself included. I am in four leagues this year – and made the playoffs in three of them. I think I have a legitimate chance at winning the title in all three of those leagues. Sounds like I should be pleased, right?

Nope.

That fourth league is the one that got me. Conn and I had won the title three straight times, but we got decimated by Michael Turner’s injury and played some hunches down the stretch that cost us.

Regarding Turner, is the 370 curse back in play now? I dismissed it in the preseason, but now?

For what it’s worth, it is highly unlikely that anyone will hit the 370 mark this season. Current leaders after Week 14:

Steven Jackson, St. Louis              285

Chris Johnson, Tennessee           272

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota       270

Thomas Jones, NYJ                          263

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati             257

Johnson would have to average 33 carries per game to get there, and that’s not going to happen. Jackson may not play again this season, and the Vikings won’t give Peterson the ball that much.

Speaking of ADP, we all expected him to be solid this year and he is second among running backs. Obviously, Chris Johnson (1^st) and Maurice Jones-Drew (3^rd) were high draft picks. I am surprised that Ray Rice is fourth, but not shocked.

But who could have seen Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams at fifth and sixth, respectively?

I am wrong sometimes, believe it or not, but I think the player I have been wrong about the most over the last couple of seasons is Thomas Jones.

In 2007, he scored just two touchdowns and rushed for 1,119 yards while averaging 3.6 yards per carry. I announced he was finished. They had Leon Washington ready to take over, and I encouraged all to give up on Jones.

Since I put the fork in him, he’s scored 26 touchdowns. Perhaps I was slightly off on him.

I really want to announce he is done as a fantasy football starter after this year, but I won’t.

After watching DeSean Jackson go nuts on the Giants I looked up his numbers for the season. The guy has scored a ton of points, and doesn’t get many targets from McNabb. It helps Jackson that he also returns kicks, but he still only has 90 targets this season – for 157 points in ESPN standard scoring leagues. Meanwhile, Davone Bess has just one fewer target, but 106 fewer points.

Miles Austin has 93 targets and 157 points, while Torry Holt has 91 targets and just 59 points.

But the most staggering numbers are from Robert Meachem in New Orleans.

Meachem has been targeted just 44 times this season but has 115 points. He is the only player with fewer than 70 targets and more than 100 points.

More proof that you don’t need to waste high draft picks on wide receivers. You could have picked up Meachem and Miles Austin off the scrap heap after the season started.

Good luck in Week 15…

BY JEFF THITOFF

I’ve long argued the point that by this time, only about half of the world’s fantasy football players still care about their seasons. Just a couple of weeks remain in your regular season and I believe more than the bottom third in your standings would rather wait for the start of baseball season.

You are obviously still involved. Thanks for reading, and congratulations…unless you are an owner of the “Mob” or the “Maynard Marauders” in my leagues.

We all have our hits and misses each week - I was way too optimistic about Matt Leinart this week, but I have continued to predict stellarness (new word) for Vince Young. I am loving this Vince Young story. I don’t know if he is destined for fantasy greatness (or stellarness), but he’s a guy I am rooting for. Did someone say Man Crush 2010?

My 2009 man crush Ryan Grant didn’t fare as well as I had hoped against Detroit, but I am still confident he will finish as a top-eight back when the season is over. He’s 12th in ESPN standard scoring leagues, but I think he could pass three of the guys in front of him: Gore, Addai and Turner (if he misses another game or two). If Steven Jackson’s back injury limits him, that’s another guy Grant could pass. That would put him 8th, and put me first in guru-ness.

What on earth were the Falcons thinking? Conn, Helbling and I all agreed that Atlanta should have sat Michael Turner instead of risking further injury. Now the Falcons will likely be without both Turner and Matt Ryan when they face the Eagles. In Week 14, Atlanta plays the Saints. Suddenly, I don’t like their playoff chances.

What on earth was I thinking? Although I did get great value in return, in my two most important leagues I have traded Drew Brees, Justin Forsett and Laurence Maroney at different times. I was smart enough to trade for Ray Rice (I overpaid for him in a keeper league), Wes Welker and Sidney Rice.

We’ll see how it all plays out, but in my four leagues I am in my combined record is 30-17-1. I clinched playoff berths in two leagues, I control my destiny in one and I need a little help in the other.

I love this stuff.

In this week’s hangover, I am going to pimp some of our upcoming materials and I’m going to provide you some links to the stories I found to be the most informative over the last couple of days.

Our own Adam Helbling knows his stuff. He was the only expert I know of that predicted Vince Young would be the starter coming out of the Titans’ bye week. He also had Josh Freeman starting this year for Tampa. What would that perfecta bet pay? His Waiver Wire story is here, and it’s a must-read.

I always read Peter King. His MMQB column is full of info, including news about the Colts resting their starters down the stretch.

The leader in our Experts Contest, CBS’ Dave Richard, offers his weekly “Fantasy and Reality” column. In it, he discusses some of his frustration with the whole Turner/Snelling/Falcons brass situation this week.

RotoExpert Mike Gilbert is calling this an important week for Carson Palmer and the Bengals receivers in his “Furious Five.”

According to ESPN’s Week 13 projections, Palmer bounces back against Oakland. The worldwide leader in sports has Thomas Jones going off this week.

CBS’ Jamey Eisenberg wonders why Brett Favre isn’t being started in more than 57 percent of leagues. I think part of this is due to teams out of the playoff race aren’t making lineup changes. Favre was off in Week Nine, so teams that benched him during the bye week (and fell out of contention) never put him back in the starting lineup.

Ralph Mancini from Fantasy Phenoms has some names of people you should consider while Searching the Scrap Heap.

Helbling’s “Risk Management” is going to be up shortly and make sure you check out the Thursday night show on Blog Talk radio at 9 PM ET. You won’t be disappointed…probably. No promises. It could suck. But you’ll be entertained. I think.

BY JEFF THITOFF

“I can’t believe the news today. I can’t close my eyes and make it go away.” Bono, from the song “Sunday Bloody Sunday”

“The beat goes on.” Sonny Bono from “The Beat Goes On”

I wanted to include a quote from Steve Bono, but those are impossible to find.

Nonetheless, the theme for this week’s podcast lies somewhere in the middle of Sunday Bloody Sunday and The Beat Goes On. I’m not comparing it to the 1972 ambush that U2 was referencing, but Sunday was a tough day for some key players:

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia: A couple of weeks ago, I said his concussion was a good thing. I lied. He may not play again this season.

Michael Turner, Atlanta: Dude had nine carries for 111 yards before leaving with a high-ankle sprain. I know low-ankle sprains hurt like hell and I heard high-ankle sprains are worse.

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati: Doesn’t sound too serious, but that didn’t stop a desperate owner in one of my leagues to jump on Bernard Scott. Guys with names like “Bernard Scott” don’t normally do well in the NFL.

Ronnie Brown, Miami: Suffered an ankle injury, and was off to a solid start before being sidelined. What’s up with Auburn running backs always getting hurt? Brown, Cadillac Williams and do you remember Kenny Irons?

Julius Jones, Seattle: I actually read on CBS Sports a report that said Jones’ injury was “not considered life-threatening.” Any time someone has to say that about an injury, I get concerned.

Also, Kyle Orton goes down (and takes Brandon Marshall with him) and now Dwayne Bowe has been suspended four games.

If you have any of the above players, it looks like you might lose a starter (except for Jones). You are probably still in the postseason race for your league, or you wouldn’t be checking out The Hangover. Or maybe you are just a fan. Either way, thanks for reading.

My point is this – you need some advice about what to do. I am not going to tell you the “who” – I will leave that to Adam Conn’s Waiver Wire piece. Instead, I am offering a checklist that will outline how to deal:

1. “Don’t believe the hype” – Chuck D

I read a report on ESPN that actually asked “Does Seattle have the next MJD?” in Justin Forsett. That is a bit of hype, I believe. I immediately went out and traded Forsett away for more than he is worth.
Could he be good? Yes. Could he be MJD-good? Highly doubtful. I would still get him on waivers, but I wouldn’t overpay for him in a trade.
I’d rather have a guy who has proven he can do it for more than one week. Give me Betts over Forsett.

2. “Relax” – Frankie Goes to Hollywood

You are in playoff contention for a reason. You drafted well, managed the team well – don’t panic and make some drastic move just because one of your running backs might miss a game or two.

3. “Let me tell you how it will be; There’s one for you, nineteen for me.” – George Harrison

Just as Frankie said to relax, George is encouraging you to find the owner that is in panic mode and take advantage of the situation. If you have Larry Johnson, sell him to the Benson owner in your league. Ship Norwood or Snelling to the Turner owner in your league.
Quite frankly, those guys are “fill-ins” for a reason. None of those backups are going to win a title for you.

4. “Right down through the wire, even through the fire” – Kanye West

See, another person encourages you to read the Waiver Wire.

Questions? Shoot them to jeff@411fantasy.com.

BY JEFF THITOFF

Josh Freeman came out of nowhere and scored 22 points. Jason Hill was a top receiver this week. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew caught seven passes for 70 yards a score. Totally random and unpredictable performances.

Things like that are tough to predict, but I have spent hour of research to discover the key to winning fantasy football.  Pop culture from the 1970’s.

That’s right, if you would have drafted based on what was groovy three decades ago you could be winning your league right now. With a nod to VH-1…let’s go back in time and create a cheat sheet for this year’s draft.

I used ESPN’s experts mock draft from August 20.

Round one: The correct choice? Gotta go with Rocky’s wife. Best player in the round is Adrian Peterson. Other choices could be “Some people call me Maurice (Jones-Drew)…” from Steve Miller Band’s “The Joker” or Ted (Michael) Turner.

Round two:  As 70’s TV dads go, the conversation about the best starts and ends with Mike Brady. Choice here is Tom Brady. If you were a fan of “Every Which Way but Loose” and “Annie Hall” actress Beverly D’Angelo, you could take a Carolina running back here.

Round three:  Need a receiver here. Let’s go with Reg Dunlop from Slap Shot (1977)…or Reggie Wayne from Indianapolis.

Round four: Who was the coolest animated dude in the 70’s? Freddy Jones, voiced by Frank Welker. Take Wes Welker here.

Round five: We’ve already used the Brady’s once, but they come into play here as well. In a three-episode marathon of a vacation, the multi-married and the steps run into Vincent Price. Using that logic, your pick is Vincent Jackson.

Round six: Need a tight end? Now is the best chance to get one, and where better to look than South Fork. Grab Dallas Clark.

Round seven: Ray Leonard won gold in ’76 and was fighter of the year in 1979. Roll the dice with Ray Rice.

Round eight: When the series started in 1979, he was simply the head of household affairs for Governor Eugene Gatling. Benson quickly moved up the ladder and eventually became Lieutenant Governor. A similar upswing for Cedric Benson, so grab him here.

So eight rounds in you have the best team in your league. You roll through the season, as long as you avoid trading for Lily Tomlinson.