By Adam Conn:
For Adam Helbling’s picks, click here. Tito? He’s running out of time…. Stay tuned.
Onto the game.
…… Sigh. Has there been a quality Thursday night match up yet this season? The short weeks are really starting to burn some teams out. The Miami/Carolina game was pretty good from a fantasy perspective; Ricky Williams had one of his best career games and Steve Smith decided to show up. But the rest have either been awful one-sided contests (see all three Thanksgiving games) or snoozers (See Bears/49ers or Jets/Bills). Last week’s Pittsburgh/Cleveland match up was disappointing on all counts, both from a fantasy point of view to a WTF is going on with the Steelers point of view.
Which brings us to what supposedly could be a higher scoring affair between the Colts and Jaguars. One problem – Indy has nothing to play for with the exception of staying in game shape for the next three games. That alone is why Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark are a good bet to play 3+ quarters. Reggie Wayne? I’m not as confident about him. He’s nursing a foot injury and may take a back seat to my super-duper sleeper – Pierre Garcon.
The question is, do I have big enough cojones to put Garcon in my top five. The Jaguars have allowed 16 passing touchdowns to WRs this season, rank 26th overall against the pass and typically allow Wayne to run wild on them. With Wayne’s snap count to possibly be limited, Garcon stands to reap the benefits.
Back to that debate in a minute. First thing’s first. Dallas Clark will be placed third amongst my Tight Ends this week. Really, he should be No. 2 this week, but I’m reserving that spot for Redskins TE Fred Davis, who is a solid bet to score this week. Clark had three TDs last Sunday and another two weeks ago, but I’m not sold on him finishing the game, so I’m holding back just a bit.
As for the rest of the possible studs – Addai and Maurice Jones Drew, I’m going to pass. Jones-Drew hasn’t been top-5 worthy in a month, and Addai falls into the same trap as the other starters. He’s also limited by his yardage totals this season. So unless he scores twice, he won’t qualify. He will not score twice.
Defense? Nope. Kickers? Scobee has possibilities, but outside of Jay Feely a few weeks ago, the scoring just isn’t there on a short week. I’ll pass there as well. Actually, if anything, Matt Stover may be a sneaky play. If some of the Colts starters take some time off tonight, Stover could see more field goal attempts. But I’m not confident in either kicker enough to rank them high. Pass.
By the way, all this talk of how well the Jaguars play at home? Check the schedule. Wins against Tennessee (early in the season), St. Louis, Kansas City, Buffalo and Houston don’t impress me. Losses against the Cardinals and the Dolphins are more telling. The Jaguars will lose by 10-13 points tonight – and that’s assuming the Colts lay down in the fourth quarter.
Back to the above dilemma. I’m going to plug in QB Peyton Manning at the #5 spot. I really don’t like this pick, but I’m hoping he tosses three scores before he’s pulled – if he’s pulled – which I expect at about the eight or nine minute mark in the fourth quarter. Only way he finishes this game is if the Jaguars are within a touchdown. As mentioned earlier, TE Dallas Clark will sit in the No. 3 seat. I’m not feeling confident enough in Reggie Wayne’s health (despite his strong history against Jacksonville) or guru enough to make a splash with Garcon.
And that, my friends, is about as long-winded of an Expert Entry breakdown as I can write on a meaningless Thursday night game. Best of luck this week!
Colts 27, Jaguars 17 (thanks to a late TD by the Jags against the Colts’ reserves).
In before tl/dr.
