BY JEFF THITOFF
As I sat down to pen this ode to the 2009 Experts Contest winner, I was reminded of this moment. You need only view the first 12 seconds to grasp what it’s like to work with Adam Conn of 411fantasy.com, the newly-crowned “Fantasy Football Expert of the Year.”

Conn emerged from an incredibly impressive field of experts and edged out Michael Jones (Football Diehards), Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Sports Empires) and Peter Davidson (Fantasy Phenoms). In all, 35 experts from 23 of the top fantasy sports sites – including ESPN, CBS Sports, RotoExperts, Yahoo and Sports Illustrated – took part in the competition.

(At this point, I could allow for Conn to say something – a quote about how humbled he is, or how much of his success he owes to me – but I will let him do a post of his own on the site. Quite frankly, I didn’t really want to talk to him.)

Conn becomes the second winner of the now-annual contest. Jonathan Phillips from RotoExperts won the event in 2008. The results from the 2008 contest are here, and an interview with Phillips last year is here for the nostalgic types.

The 17^th week of the NFL season was a difficult one to predict. Some key players were rested, some were benched (Denver) and that led to some surprising performances.

Patrick Welsh from Fantasy Pros 911 claimed the top spot in the weekly competition. Michael Jones (Football Diehards), Ross Mandel (NFL Draft Bible) and Matt Schauf (Rapid Draft) tied for second.

The top predictors for Week 17:

1. Patrick Welsh, Fantasy Pros 911

T2. Michael Jones, Football Diehards; Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft; Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible

5. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio

T6. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com; Zack O’Malley Greenburg, Forbes

T8. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms; Adam Helbling, 411fantasy.com

T10. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires; Mike Gilbert, Roto Experts

12. Dave Richard, CBS Sports

 And, in the season-long competition for the prestigious “Fantasy Football Expert of the Year” award:

1. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com – 14.65

2. Michael Jones, Football Diehards – 14.35

T3. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires; Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms – 14.18

5. Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible – 13.93

6. Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters – 13.88

7. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio – 13.67

8. Dave Richard, CBS Sports – 13.62

9. Jared Smola, Draft Sharks – 13.46

10. Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms – 13.27

11. Jeff Thitoff, 411fantasy.com – 13.25

12. Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft – 13.06

T13. Mike Gilbert, Roto Experts; James Rathbone, Fantasy Football InDepth – 13.00

15. Patrick Welsh, Fantasy Pros 911 – 12.93

16. Adam Helbling, 411fantasy.com – 12.76

It should be noted that Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes posted the top average for the season (15.30), but wasn’t added to the contest until Week Eight. To be eligible for the crown, participants have to compete in at least 13 weeks.

Just adds to the drama for the 2010 contest, when he will be a participant from the start…

Okay, maybe not. But this is Tito’s Week 17 experts entry…and I’ve been right a lot lately.

Quarterbacks

1. Matt Schaub

2. Ben Roethlisberger

3. Tony Romo

4. Donovan McNabb

5. Tom Brady

Running backs

1. Chris Johnson

2. Ray Rice

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Jonathan Stewart

5. Jerome Harrison

Wide receivers

1. Andre Johnson

2. DeSean Jackson

3. Santonio Holmes

4. Miles Austin

5. Roddy White

Tight ends

1. Vernon Davis

2. Jason Witten

3. Brent Celek

4. Heath Miller

5. Todd Heap

Kickers

1. David Akers

2. Robbie Gould

3. Ryan Longwell

4. Mason Crosby

5. Billy Cundiff

Defense/ST

1. San Francisco

2. Baltimore

3. Chicago

4. Carolina

5. Denver

QUIZ ANSWERS

Which one of these quarterbacks will have the most fantasy points?

 Donovan McNabb Tony Romo Ben Roethlisberger Matt Schaub

Which one of these running backs will have the most fantasy points?

 Rashard Mendenhall Thomas Jones Marion Barber Jonathan Stewart

Which one of these wide receivers will have the most fantasy points?

 DeSean Jackson Miles Austin Vincent Jackson Santonio Holmes

Which one of these defenses/special teams will have the most fantasy points?

 Pittsburgh Tennessee Buffalo San Diego

Which one of these running backs will have the most fantasy points?

 Beanie Wells Ray Rice Ryan Grant Jerome Harrison

BY JEFF THITOFF

Jim Caldwell threw a curveball at the field of experts, pulling out the Indy starters late in the third quarter of the Colts-Jets game, but scores across the board were higher than the previous week.

I humbly announce the high score in Week 16 belonged to yours truly – with a 23. Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes continued to shine and tied for second with Michael Jones from Football Diehards with 19 points.

The top experts from Week 16:

1. Jeff Thitoff, 411 fantasy.com

T2. Zack O’Malley Greenburg, Forbes; Michael Jones, Football Diehards

T4. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms; Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible

T6. Adam Helbling, 411fantasy.com; Mark Strausberg, Roto Experts

T8. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires; Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters; Robin Lundberg/Nick Stevens, The Flex Position

11. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com

In the overall standings, 411’s Conn slipped – but just a little. He still has the lead heading into the final week, but it’s “insert your own overused cliché here.”

Here’s how they look heading into the final week:

1. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com – 14.75

2. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires – 14.38

3. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms – 14.31

4. Michael Jones, Football Diehards – 14.25

5. Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters – 14.19

6. Dave Richard, CBS Sports – 13.92

7. Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible – 13.79

8. Jeff Thitoff, 411fantasy.com – 13.67

9. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio – 13.57

It should be noted that Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes would be leading in the overall contest, if he was eligible for the prize. He wasn’t invited until midway through the season, and participants have to compete in at least 13 weeks to be eligible for the prize. Greenburg’s average is 15.56 for the season.

BY JEFF THITOFF

Festivus was first celebrated in 1966, but introduced to the rest of us on December 18, 1997. The holiday, if you want to call it a holiday, has an official date of December 23.

Today is Festivus. I’ve got a lot of problems with these people…

Carson Palmer: We’re still waiting for you to show up.

Darren McFadden: Your McInjury-prone season has been McAnnoying…we all valued you too much.

Matt Forte, Jay Cutler, all Bears: A sophomore slump, a serious chump and a season-long dump. Lemon, Lemon, Lemon.

Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, Falcons brass: A 370 curse strikes Turner, Ryan never got going and a coaching staff that continues to make questionable decisions regarding injured players.

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia: All signs pointed to him breaking down in some fashion. I missed all of those signs. I guess I should look in the mirror on this one.

Tom Brady: Teased us with the huge game against the Titans. I owned him in one league and thought I was a genius. That is the one league that I missed the playoffs.

Steve Slaton: In many drafts, those picking in the middle of the first round had a choice between Slaton and Chris Johnson. How many of the Slaton-pickers made the playoffs?

Jim Mora: Forsett’s better. Clearly. We all see it. Why don’t you?

Braylon Edwards: He was hot for one week after the trade. Now, I want to go Dennis Green on him: he is who I thought he was.

Thomas Jones: Only because I am wrong about you every year.

Jason Witten: You were supposed to be the top tight end this year. You just moved into ninth place for the season after passing Owen Daniels in Week 15. The last time Owen Daniels caught a pass was in Week 8. Do the math.

Adam Conn: I wanted to beat you so bad in the Experts Contest this year.

Now on to the feats of strength…

The 15^th week of the NFL/fantasy football season was full of surprises with a number of players littering the top-5 lists for each position. Jerome Harrison? Matt Moore? Maurice Morris?

All these odd occurrences meant lower scores overall for the experts. Apparently the safest bet you could have made would have been a sawbuck on Peter Davidson from Fantasy Phenoms.

Davidson took top honors for the week as he continued his rise up the charts. A score of 16 by Davidson this week gave him a league-high total of 49 over the last three weeks and vaulted him into contention (fifth overall).

Russ Bliss finished second for the week and is third in the overall competition.

The top experts from Week 15:

1. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms

2. Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters

T3. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com; Jeff Thitoff, 411fantasy.com; Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft

6. Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible

T7. Dave Richard, CBS Sports; Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports; Robin Lundberg/Nick Stevens, The Flex Position; Paul Bourdett, Roto Experts

And the leaders, with average score, in the season-long competition:

1. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com – 14.80

2. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires – 14.33

3. Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters – 14.13

4. Dave Richard, CBS Sports – 14.09

5. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms – 14.07

6. Michael Jones, Football Diehards – 13.93

T7. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio; Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms – 13.57

T9. Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible; Jared Smola, Draft Sharks – 13.46

11. Mike Gilbert, Roto Experts – 14.00

12. Jared Smola, Draft Sharks – 13.33

T13. Jeff Thitoff, 411fantasy.com; Eric Karabell, ESPN; James Rathbone, Fantasy Football InDepth – 13.00

Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes will end up being a few weeks short of qualifying for the overall championship – but his average score of 15.13 is the best since he joined in Week Eight.

BY JEFF THITOFF

The 14^th week of the NFL season is, in all likelihood, the last week of your regular season or “playoff week” in your fantasy league. The 14^th week also proved to be significant in the experts contest: it was “moving week.”

Without touting ourselves too much, it was a banner week for all of the 411fantasy.com experts – one of us won the weekly contest, one of us took the lead in the annual competition and one of us is writing this article. Okay, it was a banner week for two of the three 411fantasy.com experts.

411’s Adam Helbling racked up 23 points to pace the field in Week 14, and our own Adam Conn smarted his way to 21 points and jumped to the top of the “Expert of the Year” contest.

Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes continued to shine with 21 points and Peter Davidson from Fantasy Phenoms also scored 21.

WEEKLY 14 LEADERS

1. Adam Helbling, 411fantasy.com

T2. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com; Zack O’Malley Greenburg, Forbes Magazine; Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms

T5. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires; Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio

T7. Michael Jones, Football Diehards; Mike Gilbert, Roto Experts

T9. Jeff Thitoff, 411fantasy.com; Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible; Eric Karabell, ESPN

T12. James Rathbone, Fantasy Football InDepth; Robin Lundberg/Nick Stevens, The Flex Position

 TOP 10 SEASON LEADERBOARD

1. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com – 14.93

2. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires – 14.64

3. Michael Jones, Football Diehards – 14.43

4. Dave Richard, CBS Sports – 14.40

5. Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters – 14.07

6. Mike Gilbert, Roto Experts – 14.00

7. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms – 13.93

8. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio – 13.85

9. Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible – 13.58

10. Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms– 13.57

Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes is not eligible for the annual contest, by no fault of his own. We didn’t invite him until the deadine passed. Pretty shrewd move by us – he would be leading the contest with a 15.86 average.

BY JEFF THITOFF

Let’s get this out of the way first. In the preseason, I predicted Ryan Grant would be a top-8 back this year. I was ridiculed by many.

Grant is now 11^th, but just ten points out of seventh. A decent finish by him and my guru-ness will be proven again.

Moving on…

Anxious moments for many this week, myself included. I am in four leagues this year – and made the playoffs in three of them. I think I have a legitimate chance at winning the title in all three of those leagues. Sounds like I should be pleased, right?

Nope.

That fourth league is the one that got me. Conn and I had won the title three straight times, but we got decimated by Michael Turner’s injury and played some hunches down the stretch that cost us.

Regarding Turner, is the 370 curse back in play now? I dismissed it in the preseason, but now?

For what it’s worth, it is highly unlikely that anyone will hit the 370 mark this season. Current leaders after Week 14:

Steven Jackson, St. Louis              285

Chris Johnson, Tennessee           272

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota       270

Thomas Jones, NYJ                          263

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati             257

Johnson would have to average 33 carries per game to get there, and that’s not going to happen. Jackson may not play again this season, and the Vikings won’t give Peterson the ball that much.

Speaking of ADP, we all expected him to be solid this year and he is second among running backs. Obviously, Chris Johnson (1^st) and Maurice Jones-Drew (3^rd) were high draft picks. I am surprised that Ray Rice is fourth, but not shocked.

But who could have seen Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams at fifth and sixth, respectively?

I am wrong sometimes, believe it or not, but I think the player I have been wrong about the most over the last couple of seasons is Thomas Jones.

In 2007, he scored just two touchdowns and rushed for 1,119 yards while averaging 3.6 yards per carry. I announced he was finished. They had Leon Washington ready to take over, and I encouraged all to give up on Jones.

Since I put the fork in him, he’s scored 26 touchdowns. Perhaps I was slightly off on him.

I really want to announce he is done as a fantasy football starter after this year, but I won’t.

After watching DeSean Jackson go nuts on the Giants I looked up his numbers for the season. The guy has scored a ton of points, and doesn’t get many targets from McNabb. It helps Jackson that he also returns kicks, but he still only has 90 targets this season – for 157 points in ESPN standard scoring leagues. Meanwhile, Davone Bess has just one fewer target, but 106 fewer points.

Miles Austin has 93 targets and 157 points, while Torry Holt has 91 targets and just 59 points.

But the most staggering numbers are from Robert Meachem in New Orleans.

Meachem has been targeted just 44 times this season but has 115 points. He is the only player with fewer than 70 targets and more than 100 points.

More proof that you don’t need to waste high draft picks on wide receivers. You could have picked up Meachem and Miles Austin off the scrap heap after the season started.

Good luck in Week 15…

If your trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, I have a suggestion for you. I am going to give you the name of a player that will single-handedly increase your chances of winning a title. You can get him at a reasonable price, because he’s not flashy.

Derrick Mason.

He might not put up great stats for you. You may even bench him sometimes. I am not going to tell you about favorable matchups against defenses down the stretch or a newfound chemistry with his quarterback.

This is all about the intangibles.

In fantasy football, intangibles usually don’t matter. You don’t need “good locker-room guys” or “guys with heart” to win at fantasy football.

I can tell you is when Mason is on my team, I usually win a title. Conn and I have won three straight titles in a league, and we think it happened because we had Mason.

I make it a point now to draft him a couple of rounds too soon, or overpay for him in a deal if I don’t get him in the draft.
I traded for him recently in what is my most personal league, the league I want to win most. So why do I bring this up today?

As I watched Allen Iverson break down in his press conference announcing his return to the 76ers, I wondered if Derrick Mason would have done the same when traded for him a few weeks ago.

Would Mase talk about how much it meant to him that Tito brought him back to the TCB franchise in the World League of American Gridboys?

I am not making fun of Iverson, I’m just jealous of the relationship between AI and the 76ers. I want that kind of relationship – I want a player to come out and say how much he wants to be on the TCB team.

Whenever Mason retires from the NFL, I will make sure I draft him the following season to ensure I am the last person to draft him in my league.

If I win the title in this league this year, when I don’t have the best team but I now have Mason, I will make it my life mission to get Mason on a podcast.

Good luck this week….

Allen Iverson press conference

BY JEFF THITOFF

I’ve long argued the point that by this time, only about half of the world’s fantasy football players still care about their seasons. Just a couple of weeks remain in your regular season and I believe more than the bottom third in your standings would rather wait for the start of baseball season.

You are obviously still involved. Thanks for reading, and congratulations…unless you are an owner of the “Mob” or the “Maynard Marauders” in my leagues.

We all have our hits and misses each week - I was way too optimistic about Matt Leinart this week, but I have continued to predict stellarness (new word) for Vince Young. I am loving this Vince Young story. I don’t know if he is destined for fantasy greatness (or stellarness), but he’s a guy I am rooting for. Did someone say Man Crush 2010?

My 2009 man crush Ryan Grant didn’t fare as well as I had hoped against Detroit, but I am still confident he will finish as a top-eight back when the season is over. He’s 12th in ESPN standard scoring leagues, but I think he could pass three of the guys in front of him: Gore, Addai and Turner (if he misses another game or two). If Steven Jackson’s back injury limits him, that’s another guy Grant could pass. That would put him 8th, and put me first in guru-ness.

What on earth were the Falcons thinking? Conn, Helbling and I all agreed that Atlanta should have sat Michael Turner instead of risking further injury. Now the Falcons will likely be without both Turner and Matt Ryan when they face the Eagles. In Week 14, Atlanta plays the Saints. Suddenly, I don’t like their playoff chances.

What on earth was I thinking? Although I did get great value in return, in my two most important leagues I have traded Drew Brees, Justin Forsett and Laurence Maroney at different times. I was smart enough to trade for Ray Rice (I overpaid for him in a keeper league), Wes Welker and Sidney Rice.

We’ll see how it all plays out, but in my four leagues I am in my combined record is 30-17-1. I clinched playoff berths in two leagues, I control my destiny in one and I need a little help in the other.

I love this stuff.

In this week’s hangover, I am going to pimp some of our upcoming materials and I’m going to provide you some links to the stories I found to be the most informative over the last couple of days.

Our own Adam Helbling knows his stuff. He was the only expert I know of that predicted Vince Young would be the starter coming out of the Titans’ bye week. He also had Josh Freeman starting this year for Tampa. What would that perfecta bet pay? His Waiver Wire story is here, and it’s a must-read.

I always read Peter King. His MMQB column is full of info, including news about the Colts resting their starters down the stretch.

The leader in our Experts Contest, CBS’ Dave Richard, offers his weekly “Fantasy and Reality” column. In it, he discusses some of his frustration with the whole Turner/Snelling/Falcons brass situation this week.

RotoExpert Mike Gilbert is calling this an important week for Carson Palmer and the Bengals receivers in his “Furious Five.”

According to ESPN’s Week 13 projections, Palmer bounces back against Oakland. The worldwide leader in sports has Thomas Jones going off this week.

CBS’ Jamey Eisenberg wonders why Brett Favre isn’t being started in more than 57 percent of leagues. I think part of this is due to teams out of the playoff race aren’t making lineup changes. Favre was off in Week Nine, so teams that benched him during the bye week (and fell out of contention) never put him back in the starting lineup.

Ralph Mancini from Fantasy Phenoms has some names of people you should consider while Searching the Scrap Heap.

Helbling’s “Risk Management” is going to be up shortly and make sure you check out the Thursday night show on Blog Talk radio at 9 PM ET. You won’t be disappointed…probably. No promises. It could suck. But you’ll be entertained. I think.

The unexpected happened several times over in Week 11 of the NFL season, and the result was lower scores across the board in 411fantasy.com’s “Experts Contest.”

Matthew Stafford? Brady Quinn? No one could have seen that coming, and no expert did.

Out of all of the participants, Matt Schauf from Rapid Draft came up with the highest score (18). Steve Sheiner of FanBall and Peter Davidson of Fantasy Phenoms both had 15 points and Michael Cooper from Cooper Sports Radio finished fourth with 14 points.

The Week 11 leaderboard:

1. Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft

T2. Steve Sheiner, FanBall; Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms

4. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio

5. Patrick Welsh, Fantasy Pros 911

T6. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com; Eric Karabell, ESPN; Jared Smola, Draft Sharks; Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms

10. James Rathbone, Fantasy Football InDepth

T11. Jeff Thitoff, 411fantasy.com; Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible; Robin Lundberg/Nick Stevens, The Flex Position; Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters

In the overall standings, Dave Richard from CBS Sports is still in front – but Conn was able to narrow the gap. The leaders and their average scores in the season standings:

1. Dave Richard, CBS Sports – 15.43

2. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com – 14.45

3. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires – 14.27

4. Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters – 14.00

5. Eric Karabell, ESPN – 13.80

6. Michael Jones, Football Diehards – 13.73

T7. Jared Smola, Draft Sharks and Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms – 13.55

8. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio – 13.45

9. James Rathbone, Fantasy Football InDepth – 13.44

10. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms – 13.36

11. Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible – 13.30

12. Ginny Loveless, Football Diehards – 13.09

T13. Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports and Steve Sheiner, FanBall – 13.00