By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs…

Buy

QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – Over the last five weeks McNabb has thrown for 284 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. He faces the Falcons this week who are giving up 269 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest. Also, the Falcons defense gave up 250 yards passing and two touchdowns just last week to Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman.

RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – With most of the attention in Minnesota on Brett Favre, Peterson has averaged a rather quiet 99 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game. The spotlight might be back on ADP this week as he faces a Cardinals defense giving up 146 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game to running backs over the last five weeks.

WR Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals – Ochocinco’s 50 yards receiving per game and zero touchdowns over the last five weeks of the season have been a big disappointment. Luckily for Ocho owners he faces a Lions unit giving up 198 yards receiving and 1.2 receiving touchdowns to the wide receiver position during the same period of time.

Sell

Somewhere under there is Ryan Grant (photo by espn.com)

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers had a Happy Thanksgiving against the Detroit Lions throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns. Over the last five weeks of the season he has averaged 287 yards passing and 2.2 touchdowns per game. But during this same period of time the Baltimore Ravens have held opposing quarterback to just 184 yards passing and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game.

RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – Grant had one of his worst games of the season last week totaling 61 yards rushing and just 3.1 yards per carry. Things could be even tougher this week against a Ravens defense giving up only 89 yards rushing and 0.6 rushing touchdowns to the running back position over the last five weeks.

WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals – With Matt Leinart at the helm, Fitzgerald had just 34 yards receiving last week, tying a season low. Leinart could possibly make his second start of the season and the Vikings are giving up just 140 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over the last five weeks. Keeping expectations low for Fitz would be wise.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – Smith had one of his best performances of the season last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars throwing for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Last week was also the first time all season he failed to throw an interception. Over the last five weeks Smith has averaged 212 yards passing and 1.6 touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Seahawks have given up 274 yards passing and have given up a league leading 13 touchdowns.

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – With the addition of Miles Austin helping to revitalize the Cowboys passing game, Tony Romo has averaged 256 yards passing and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. He faces a struggling Giants secondary that is giving up 240 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns per contest.

RB Jamal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs – Charles has to be making Chiefs fans wondering why they didn’t cut their losses with Larry Johnson earlier in the season. Over the last five weeks of the season the J.C. (he’s earned it) has averaged 73 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game. After a strong start to the season, the Broncos defense has struggled giving up 141 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the running back position.

RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai’s involvement in the team’s passing game has made him one of the more valuable fantasy options in the NFL over the last five weeks, averaging 86 offensive yards and one touchdown per game. During that same time the Titans have given up 6.1 yards per carry and 98 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position.

RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets – Jones has either rushed for over 100 yards or scored a touchdown in each of his last five games while averaging 89 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Bills have given up 130 yards rushing and 1.8 touchdowns to opposing running backs.

WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – Crabtree has been a decent No. 3 WR for most teams since ending his hold-out. Over the last five weeks of the season he has averaged 58 yards receiving and 0.2 touchdowns per contest. He might be in line for a breakout game this week against a Seahawks defense giving up 172 yards receiving and 2.2 receiving touchdowns to the wide receiver position over the same period of time.

Sell

T.O.'s Thanksgiving surge may have been short-lived (photo by espn.com).

RB Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals – Even with Hightower splitting carries with Chris Wells the Cardinals No. 1 running back has averaged 89 offensive yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. During the same period of time, however, the Vikings defense has given up just 2.8 yards per game while allowing 35 yards rushing per game.

RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – Over the last five weeks of the season Smith has averaged 96 offensive yards and 0.2 offensive touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Bengals defense have given up just one touchdown and 62 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.

WR Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills – Owens finished last week with 96 yards receiving and one touchdown, his second straight game with a touchdown reception. Making it three straight will be difficult as he draws the attention of Darrelle Revis and the New York Jets. Over the last five weeks of the season the Jets have given up only 117 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position.

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars – Sims-Walker has scored a touchdown in three of his last five games while averaging 68 yards receiving per contest. This week he will face the Texans who are one of the best in limiting production from opposing receivers (115 yards receiving and 0.8 touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks).

PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share. * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – Palmers 110 yards passing last week was a season low. Worse, it was against the Cleveland Browns and Palmer has not one 300 yard performance this season. But he gets a chance at redemption this week against the Lions who are giving up 303 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks.

WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Britt had his best game of the season last week against the Arizona Cardinals. The rookie finished with 128 yards receiving and the game winning touchdown as time expired. He will face a depleted Colts secondary this week who has given up a league leading 206 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers over the last five weeks of the season.

Email  Bling

By Adam Helbling:

There are just two weeks until most fantasy post-seasons begin and if you’re on the playoff bubble, you may be in the market for some last minute help. Here’s a look at a half-dozen players that could get you in the money, so to speak.

Britt posted 128 yards plus this game-winner against the Cardinals last Sunday (photo by espn.com)

RB Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks – In Forsett’s debut as the Seahawks starting running back he only totaled nine yards rushing on eight carries. Of course he also scored a touchdown and had 80 yards receiving. Sunday he rushed for 130 yards and two touchdowns. The unknown factor with Forsett is what effect the return of Julius Jones will have on his workload. Look for a RBBC, but Forsett has demonstrated to be the most complete and productive back. He is currently available in 50 percent of leagues polled.

RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs – Charles rushed for over six yards per carry last week finishing with 93 yards and a touchdown against the San Diego Chargers. Over the last three weeks he has two touchdowns and is averaging 85 yards rushing a game. Charles is best used as a flex option, but depending on the match-up could serve as a No. 2 running back. He is currently available in half of all leagues polled.

WR Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs – Since joining the Chiefs (four games), Chambers has averaged 80 yards receiving and scored three touchdowns. With Dwayne Bowe out, he should continue to be the team’s go-to receiver. He is best used as a situational starter, but can also provide depth to your roster. He is currently available in half of all leagues polled.

WR Jason Avant, Philadelphia Eagles – Owning a Philadelphia wide receiver is often a hit-and-miss situation. But over the last three weeks Avant either totaled at least 90 yards receiving or scored a touchdown. Avant is best used as an option in deeper leagues, but his 92 yards receiving per game since Week 9 might make him a nice pick-up for depth if you have the space. He is currently available in all leagues polled.

WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Britt has moved into a starting role with Justin Gage missing time due to injury. He had his best game of the season this past week against the Arizona Cardinals, posting 128 yards receiving and scoring his second touchdown in two weeks. It is unclear what Britt’s role will be when Gage returns, but for now Britt makes a decent option in deeper leagues. He is currently available in 90 percent of league polled.

TE Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – Finding fantasy value on the Oakland Raiders can be a trying task. However since Bruce Gradkowski took over the starting role the task is a bit easier. Zach Miller posted 69 yards receiving per game and one touchdown over the last two weeks of the season. Fantasy owners tired of playing tight end roulette each week might be able to settle with Miller for now. He is currently available in over 40 percent of leagues polled.

Email Bling

By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a “bad” week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

Buy

RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – There is no word on the status of Benson’s hip, but most reports last week had him with a good shot to return Week 12. This will be a situation to watch for Benson owners, but should he play this week it could be a good one. The Browns are giving up 127 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per contest over the last five weeks of the season and rank 29th overall against the run.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has either scored a touchdown or gained over 100 yards in four of his last five games and is quickly becoming the team’s go-to receiver. Over the last five weeks he has averaged 117 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. We look for another solid out against the Bears who have struggled defending opposing wide receivers. Over the last five weeks the Bears have given up an average of 153 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdown receptions per game.

Sell

(photo by espn.com)

QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – Over the last five weeks of the season McNabb has thrown for at least two touchdown passes in three games and is averaging 263 yards passing per contest. McNabb could struggle to hit those numbers this week against the Washington Redskins. The ‘Skins held Tony Romo to just 158 yards passing and one touchdown last week and are giving up only 165 yards passing and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks.

RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens - Rice hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since Week 4, but it is his combined numbers that give him his value. Over the last five weeks of the season Rice has averaged 121 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per game. A betting man would take the under on those numbers this week as he faces a Steelers defense giving up 59 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per contest to the position over the same period of time.

WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts – This is the section of the article where we give the obligatory reminder that just because a player finds himself in the ‘Sell’ section does not mean you should bench him. This is especially true for Wayne who has averaged 101 yards receiving and 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. But this week the Colts draw the Texans, who have clamped down defensively a bit in recent weeks (112.3 yards receiving allowed per game over their last five). Use Wayne with lowered expectations is all we’re saying.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – Even with Benson out of the line-up the Bengals still leaned on the running game last week against the Raiders. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard combined for 34 rushing attempts (43 as a team) and Palmer threw the ball only 22 times, his lowest number of attempts this season. Over the last five weeks Palmer is averaging 210 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. Forget what the Browns are giving up to the position during the same period of time (265 yds passing, 2Tds), did you see what Matthew Stafford did last week against them?

QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos – Orton has struggled over the last five weeks of the season averaging only 184 yards passing and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. Owners will have to follow his injury status through the week, but he could be worth a start this week. The Giants have given up 237 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns to the position during the same period of time.

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – A strong second half against the New York Giants helped Ryan put together one of his best performances of the season. For the first time in six weeks Ryan did not throw an interception and finished with 268 yards passing and two touchdowns. Ryan will have a legit shot at two solid games in the row facing the Buccaneers this week. Over the last five weeks the Bucs have given up 234 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns to the position per game.

RB Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins – The injury to Ronnie Brown cleared the path for Ricky Williams to take over the No. 1 job in Miami. He responded with three touchdowns Thursday night against the Carolina Panthers. Look for another good outing this week with the Bills allowing 119 yards rushing and 1.8 touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks.

Ricky being Ricky (photo by espn.com)

RB Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys – Barber’s numbers over the last five weeks have been a disappointment. The encouraging news is that for the first time this season he had 20 carries. Moreover Barber faces the Oakland Raiders who are giving up 4.8 yards per carry, 161 yards rushing and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position over the last five weeks.

Sell

RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – Over the last five weeks Forte has averaged only 44 yards rushing per contest. What has helped Forte owners though is that he has also averaged 54 yards receiving per game. Reaching those totals against a Viking defense that is giving up only 49 yards rushing and 0.3 touchdowns per game to the position over the last five weeks is going to be tough.

WR Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ward finds himself here for two main reasons. First, with Charlie Batch (wrist) out and Roethlisberger (concussion like symptoms – concussion-ish for short) a little woozy from last Sunday, the Steelers could potentially use Dennis Dixon at quarterback. Big Ben is likely to suit up and play, but also consider that the Ravens have given up just 132 yards receiving per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.

PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Ryan Fitapatrick? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills – Fitzpatrick had 297 yards passing and a touchdown last week. Don’t count on him to duplicate those numbers this week, but he does have a good match-up against the Seahawks. Over the last five weeks the Seahawks have given up 272 yards passing and three passing touchdowns per game.

Email Bling-Bling

By Adam Helbling:

Go directly to the waiver wire. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200.

(photo from nvfs.org)

RB Rock Cartwright, Washington Redskins – Jim Zorn has already ruled out Clinton Portis (concussion) for Week 12 and Ladell Betts tore his MCL this week so Cartwright looks like the last man standing. While we don’t see him duplicating his 140 offensive yard production next week, a starting running back is a starting running back. Cartwright is currently available in virtually all leagues polled.

WR Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs – Chambers has totaled at least 60 yards receiving in each of his games with the Chiefs. He only has 10 catches in three games, but is averaging 83 yards receiving per game. Chambers is currently available in 50 percent of leagues polled and could serve as a No. 3 wide receiver option.

WR Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis Colts – Garcon was targeted 17 times last two weeks (nine and eight) and finished Sunday’s game with six receptions and 108 yards receiving. Over the last four weeks Garcon has one touchdown while averaging 68 yards receiving per game. Prospective owners will need to track the progression of Anthony Gonzalez. Reports are that Gonzalez (three weeks removed from a knee scope) will attempt to return to the line-up this week, which could limit Garcon’s production. Garcon is currently available in slightly more than 50 percent of leagues polled.

WR Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets – Even Mark Sanchez’s four interceptions didn’t stop Cotchery from producing. He finished the day with 80 yards receiving and one touchdown and has scored a touchdown in two straight games while averaging 74 yards receiving. In fact he has no less than 68 yards in each of the seven games he’s started this season. He is currently available in nearly 30 percent of leagues polled.

TE Kevin Boss, New York Giants – Boss has scored a touchdown in three straight games and has averaged 54 yards receiving per game over the last four weeks. Boss is currently available in 50 percent of leagues polled.

Email Helbling

Risk Management

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a “bad” week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS

Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

Buy

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – There have been few players more valuable in fantasy football than MJD over the last five weeks. During this time he has averaged 133 yards rushing and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. He has also scored at least one touchdown in four straight games. Count on him for another good game against a Bills defense giving up 179 yards rushing, 5.8 yards per carry and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks.

(photo by espn.com)

RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – The Rams may be struggling, but it certainly isn’t because of Jackson. He has rushed for more than 130 yards three straight weeks and has averaged 116 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack in defending the run. However, it should be noted that they are also giving up 5.5 yards per carry. As heavy as the Rams lean on Jackson, he could be in for another solid outing.

WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans – Johnson is averaging 91 yards receiving per contest over the last five weeks, but has gone four weeks without scoring a touchdown. Johnson’s touchdown streak could come to an end this week against the Titans who are giving up an average of 2.3 receiving touchdowns and 91 yards receiving per game to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks.

Sell

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – Over the last five weeks of the season the Cowboys passing game has come alive as Romo has averaged 281 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game. Those numbers will be hard to reach against a Redskins defense that has given up 172 yards passing and one passing touchdown to the quarterback position over the last five weeks.

RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – You can’t take Johnson out of you line-up, especially with him averaging 156 yards rushing and 1.5 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. However, Johnson owners should keep in mind that the Texans have given up just 54 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position during this period of time. As well, the Texans are giving up just 3.3 yards per carry.

WR Randy Moss, New England Patriots – Like Johnson, you aren’t going to sit Moss. Over the last five weeks he has averaged 131 yards receiving and 1.5 touchdown receptions per game. During the same period of time the Jets are allowing just 86 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdown receptions per game. Moss will also have to face off against Darrelle Revis so Moss owners shouldn’t expect him to carry their team this week.

.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS

A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – Hasselbeck has thrown for over three hundred yards in two straight games and is averaging 251 yards passing and one touchdown per contest over the last five games. The Vikings have struggled in defending the pass over the last five weeks giving up 268 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. The big reason for the Vikings struggles has to do with Antoine Winfield missing time with a foot injury. The good news for Hasselbeck owners is that Winfield has already been ruled out for this week.

The secret to catching a football... eyes closed? (photo by espn.com)

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Ryan has thrown at least two interceptions in four of his last five games and is averaging 206 yards passing to with 1.4 touchdowns during this period of time. He will have a chance to turn things around this week against the New York Giants who are looking for their first win since Week 5. Over the last five weeks the Giants have given up 262 yards passing and 2.8 passing touchdown per game.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has only two touchdowns for the season, none since Week 4. The lack of touchdowns hasn’t prevented Rice from contributing from a fantasy standpoint, however, as he has averaged 138 yards receiving over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Seahawks have given up 188 yards receiving and two receiving touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

Sell

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Over the last five weeks Gore is averaging 78 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. Gore has also scored a touchdown in three straight games. That streak could come to an end this week against a Packers defense giving up 70 yards rushing and 0.2 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs during the same period of time.

WR Devin Hester, Chicago Bears – Hester has had at least 80 yards receiving in four of his last five games and has averaged 81 yards receiving and 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game. Building on those numbers might be difficult against the Eagles defense has given up 126 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers over the last five weeks.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Matthew Stafford? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – Stafford is only averaging 198 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game over the last five weeks. During the same period of time the Cleveland Browns have allowed 263.8 yards passing per game and 1.25 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 5 the Browns have held an opponent to under 27 points and 225 yards passing just once.

(photo by espn.com)

RB Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – Being stuck in a time-share at running back is the only thing keeping Wells in the Penny Stocks section. Over the last five weeks Wells has averaged 60 yards rushing and 0.6 touchdowns per contest. As well, he has rushed for more than five yards per carry three straight weeks. Another strong week could be in the making against the Rams who are giving up 143 yards rushing and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position over the last five weeks.

Questions? Comments? Email Helbling.

By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

Blue Chip Stocks

Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

Buy

Best fantasy player over the last two weeks, Can Johnson make it three? (photo by espn.com)

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees turned in his fifth 300-yard plus passing game of the season last week and has thrown for 300 yards in five out of his eight starts. For the season, Brees is averaging 292 yards passing and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game. Fantasy owners could be looking at another big week with the Rams giving up 248 yards passing and 1.4 passing touchdowns per contest this season.

RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – After two straight starts that might have single handedly carried a fantasy team, Johnson has moved into third place in scoring in ESPN standard scoring leagues. For the season Johnson is averaging 120 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. The Buffalo Bills are currently giving up 158 yards rushing and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position this season, giving Johnson a good shot at another strong week.

RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – Peterson has either rushed for 100 yards or found the end zone in seven of eight games this season. He could do both and then some this week against a Lions defense that is giving up 103 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per contest to opposing running backs.

WRs Randy Moss/Wes Welker, New England Patriots – The Colts defense has done well in limiting production from the wide receiver position giving up 158 yards receiving and 0.1 receiving touchdowns per game. However, with both Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson on IR and Kelvin Hayden not practicing this is an area the Patriots should look to exploit. Moss is averaging 89 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns per contest. Welker is averaging 71 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns a game.

Sell

RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – Benson continued to build upon his strong season with over 100 yards rushing and a touchdown against the Ravens last week. For the year he is averaging 105 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. Considering the numbers Benson has put up this season you can’t sit him, but your expectations for this week should be lowered. He had 76 yards and a score against Pittsburgh in Week 3, but the Steelers are giving up just 56 yards rushing and 0.3 touchdowns per contest to opposing running backs.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS

A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

Edwards has a chance to take down another Florida team this Sunday (photo by miamiherald.com)

QB Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers – Favre is averaging 241 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest this season. More importantly he has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of eight games and has just three interceptions for the season. With the Vikings facing the Lions this week, the biggest threat to Favre might be that the Vikings get top far ahead for him to contribute in the second half. The Lions are giving up 270 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns a game; Favre is a solid play this week.

RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice’s carries had been somewhat limited due to sharing the workload with Willis McGahee, but McGhaee has just 10 carries in the last four games and Ravens HC John Harbaugh said he can’t justify taking Rice off the field as much as he used to. “It’s pretty hard to take [Rice] off the field when he’s making the plays,” he said.” That’s great news for Rice owners and the Ravens, who face a Browns defense allowing 143 yards rushing and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. Rice, who is averaging 72 yards rushing and 55 yards receiving a game, hasn’t had a 100 yard rushing game since Week 4, but has a good shot at it this week.

WR Braylon Edwards New York Jets – Since joining the Jets Edwards has averaged 48 yards receiving per game and has scored two touchdowns through four weeks. Counting on Mark Sanchez to get him the ball consistently might worry some owners, but he has a solid match-up against a Jaguars defense giving up 176 yards receiving and 1.6 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position.

Sell

Worst NFL beard - ever (photo by espn.com)

QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos – Orton has struggled to produce over the last two weeks with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. This week is unlikely to be his bounce back game with the Redskins giving up only 174 yards passing and 1.1 touchdowns per game.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – Tomlinson has been a decent flex option over the last four weeks averaging 55 yards rushing per contest with two touchdowns (both against the Raiders). You might want to consider other options, however, as he faces an Eagles defense giving up only 82 yards rushing and 0.6 touchdowns per contest to opposing running backs.

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars - Sims-Walker is averaging 116 yards receiving and one touchdown per game when the Jaguars play at home. Unfortunately for Sims-Walker owners the Jaguars are on the road and he will likely be drawing Darrell Revis in coverage. For the season the Jets are giving up just 96 yards receiving and 0.4 receiving touchdowns per contest to opposing wide receivers.

WR DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles - Jackson is averaging 66 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per contest this season. The biggest downside to any Eagles wide receiver is that they can be hit or miss on any given week. Look for a miss this week as the Eagles play a Chargers defense giving up only 105 yards receiving and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Trent Edwards?  * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – You have to be pretty desperate to start Edwards. The Bills quarterback is returning from injury and is averaging only 164 yards passing and 0.8 passing touchdowns per game this season. But if you are in a pinch with byes (Texans, Giants are off this week), keep in mind he faces the Titans who are giving up 298 yards passing and 2.6 passing touchdowns per contest this season.

Email Bling

By Adam Helbling:

At this point in the season you probably have a pretty good read if your team has playoff potential or if you need to start planning who you will take with next year’s first overall pick. For those of you in the latter group, you will have to check back in about eight months. For fantasy owners who see the playoffs in their future it is never too early to start planning for the stretch run. Consider acquiring or shipping the below listed running backs who either have a very favorable or very unfavorable set of match-ups over the last four weeks of the season. For Helbling’s first installments on quarterbacks, click here.

* Match-ups between weeks 13-16 were used in judging the value of each players. Week 17 is not included as most leagues, due to NFL teams sitting their starters, have their championship game Week 16.

Trade For

From NFL bust to fantasy boom - Get Benson if you can. (photo by espn.com)

RBs Tim Hightower/Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – It would probably take some gamble in you to make a move for either of the Cardinals running backs. After all, neither back has averaged more than 40 yards rushing per game this season. Still it is difficult to look past the Cardinals Week 16 and 15 match-ups. In Week 15 the Cardinals face the Lions who are giving up 165 offensive yards and 1.1 touchdowns per game to the position. Week 16 the Cardinals face the Rams, who are giving up 160 offensive yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. The Cardinals have a tough Week 13 match-up against the Minnesota Vikings, but you should be able to get either back for a fairly cheap price. In standard scoring leagues lean towards Wells and in PPR leagues side with Hightower who is averaging five receptions per contest this season. You wouldn’t want to count on either as a No. 1 or even No. 2 option at running back, but they could serve as valuable flex options during the playoffs.

RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – The price is likely to be pretty steep to acquire Benson, but it might be worth it for his playoff match-ups. Over the last four weeks of the season Benson and the Bengals face three teams (Lions, Chiefs, and Chargers) that rank in the bottom third in the league defending the run. The real tough test on Benson’s schedule during this time is Week 14 against the Minnesota Vikings. After the Vikings, the remaining opponents on Benson’s schedule are giving up a combined 160 offensive yards and 1.1 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.

Trade Away

Sell Tito's man-crush, he won't mind. (photo by espn.com)

RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – After his 96 yards rushing and one touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this might be the time to look to move the underachieving Grant. Grant’s best match-up over the last four weeks of the season is against the Chicago Bears who rank 15^th in defending against the running back position. Fantasy owners with Grant on their roster will need to get past the Pittsburgh Steelers Week 15, who are No. 1 defending against the running back position.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – Fortes fortuna adiuvat, or, for you non-Latin types, fortune favors the bold. For those more interested in fantasy football it means you might want to take a look at shipping MJD. Over the last four weeks of the season MJD has one good match-up, Week 13 against the Houston Texans. Over the remaining three weeks he faces three teams that all rank in the top 12 in the league in defending against the running back position. Considering what you should be able to receive in a trade for Jones-Drew this is a move that shouldn’t automatically be dismissed.

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Go directly to the waiver wire, do not pass go, do not collect $200.

QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers - If you are in a league that doesn’t punish too harshly for turnovers Smith makes a decent option to provide depth and an occasional spot start where needed. Over the last three weeks of the season Smith has averaged 230 yards passing and two touchdowns per game. With rookie WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis the team has two solid weapons in the passing game and all-purpose RB Frank Gore should help in keeping defenses honest. Smith is currently available in 85 percent of leagues polled.

RB Ryan Moats, Houston Texans – Moats didn’t match his numbers from last week – far from it – but he did find the end zone despite rushing for just 38 yards. The bigger news is that Moats got the start and more carries than Steve Slaton. Things could change over the Texans’ bye week, but finding running back help at this point in the season is tough to do. Moats is currently available in nearly 50 percent of leagues polled.

RB Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – Wells had his best rushing day of his rookie year with 72 yards on 13 carries. Part of his success likely was due to the fact that the Bears DT Tommie Harris was ejected early in the game not to mention a large second-half lead for Arizona. The biggest thing currently holding Wells back is his struggles in blitz pick-ups, a problem most rookie RBs have. He is currently available in 40 percent of leagues polled and could add depth or a flex option for fantasy owners.

Betts, who has very used very little mileage lately, will start at least one week for the Skins

RB Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins – Betts got his first extensive action of the season against the Falcons after Clinton Portis left the game with a concussion. Betts followed through with 70 yards rushing and one touchdown on 15 carries. Portis is already listed as doubful for Week 10 and with the go slow approach the league takes towards head injuries, Betts should be in line for another heavy workload this week. He is currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

WR Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - Despite finishing this weeks game with just three receptions for 44 yards, Maclin was the team’s most targeted wide receiver against the Cowboys Sunday night. Playing in the Eagles offense means there can be a lot of hit and miss nights, but his ability to contribute big plays make him an option for owners in deep leagues.

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At this point in the season you probably have a pretty good read if your team has playoff potential or if you need to start planning who you will take with next year’s first overall pick. For those of you in the latter group, you will have to check back in about eight months. For fantasy owners who see the playoffs in their future it is never too early to start planning for the stretch run. Consider acquiring or shipping the below listed quarterbacks who either have a very favorable or very unfavorable set of match-ups over the last four weeks of the season.

* Match-ups between weeks 13-16 were used in  judging the value of each players. Week 17 is not included as most leagues, due to NFL teams sitting their starters, have their championship game Week 16.

Trade For

QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – Of the four teams that Schaub will face over the last four weeks of the fantasy season, three rank in the bottom 10 in defending quarterbacks. The worst match-up that Schuab will face during this stretch are the Seattle Seahawks who are giving up 251 yards passing and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game. Week 16 Schaub faces the Dolphins who are giving up 247 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per contest. There are legitimate concerns over what the loss of Owen Daniels will do to the team’s passing game, but Schaub’s favorable schedule is hard to ignore.

Warner could have your team looking up come playoff time (photo by azcentral.com)

QB Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – Warner faces four teams over the last four weeks of the season who rank in the bottom half of the league in defending opposing quarterbacks. His two best match-ups during this time are the Lions (Week 15) and Rams (Week 16) who combined are giving up 253 yards passing and 1.7 passing touchdowns per contest.

QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – Rivers has the best match-up possible Week 16 when he faces the Titans who have held just one quarterback to under 300 yards passing and 299 yards passing and 2.8 TDs per game. Considering that his worst match-up is against the Cleveland Browns Week 13, Rivers has a stretch run difficult to ignore.

Trade Away

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Ryan has put together a solid second season averaging 236 yards passing and 1.7 touchdowns per game. However, if you are eyeing a championship run you might want to look to move him. The best match-up that Ryan has over the last four weeks of the season is against the Philadelphia Eagles who are giving up 216 yards passing, 1.6 passing touchdowns and have forced two interceptions per game this season. In Weeks 15 and 16 he faces the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, the top two teams in the league defending against opposing quarterbacks.

Romo may be hot now, but he may cool off by December (photo by romosucks.com)

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – With the emergence of wide receiver Miles Austin the Cowboys passing game is starting to click and Romo is averaging 289 yards passing and three touchdowns per game over the last two weeks. Those numbers will be hard to duplicate over the last four weeks of the fantasy season when Romo faces three top 10 pass defenses.

QB Eli Manning, New York Giants – How much of Eli Manning’s struggles are tied to his foot injury and how much of it is tied to a tougher schedule lately is up for debate. What isn’t up for debate is that Manning’s numbers have taken a nosedive. Over the first five weeks of the season Manning averaged 242 yards passing, two passing touchdowns per game and had just two interceptions. The last three games, however, Manning has averaged 214 yards passing, one touchdown per game and has three interceptions. There is still time for Manning to turn it around, but it will be difficult to do over the last four weeks of the fantasy season when he faces three teams that rank in the top 10 in defending the pass.

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Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS

Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

Buy

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Despite getting little help from his offensive line and running game, Rodgers is averaging 284 yards passing and two touchdowns per game this season. He will get the chance to improve on those numbers against a Bucs defense giving up 223 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – MJD is proving to be one of the more valuable fantasy players this season averaging 91 yards rushing and 1.4 rushing touchdowns per contest this year. He shouldn’t disappoint this week against a Chiefs defense giving up 123 yards rushing and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs.

Sell

Turner broke free last week, but could take two steps backwards Week 9 (photo by ajc.com)

QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – The Colts defense has given up just 200 yards passing per game and only three passing touchdowns all season. Schaub, who has benefited from a soft schedule thus far, has seen his numbers have dip each time the Texans face a middle-of-the-road or better pass defense. Add to that the loss of Owen Daniels and Schaub might struggle to put up the 293 yards passing and two touchdowns he has averaged per game this season.

RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – Save for last week’s 151 yard performance, Turner’s rushing numbers have been disappointing. He has scored a rushing touchdown in every game but one this season, but  the Redskins’ defense is allowing just 93 yards rushing per game and has given up only two rushing touchdowns this year to opposing running backs.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS

A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – In the four games that Hasselbeck was able to start and finish he has averaged 220 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per game. If you have a quarterback on a bye, Hasselbeck is an option against a Lions defense giving up 260 yards passing and 2.4 touchdowns per contest this season.

RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – Jacobs probably belongs in the penny stocks considering he has just two touchdowns to go with 69 yards rushing per game this season. However, he should prove his worth this week against the Chargers who are giving up 118 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game to opposing running backs.

RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – Grant is averaging just 75 yards rushing and has only three touchdowns for the season. He should improve upon those numbers against a Bucs defense giving up an average of 139 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per contest to the running back position this season.

WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – It has been a difficult season for Bowe and his owners as the Chiefs wide receiver has averaged only 43 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns per game. If he is going to improve upon those numbers it will be this week against the Jaguars who are giving up 168 yards receiving and 1.6 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers per contest.

(photo by packingcheese.com.... packingcheese?)

WR Donald Driver/ WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers – If you own one of the two Packers wide receivers you should feel good about starting them against a Tampa Bay defense giving up 147 yards passing and 1.7 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position.

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars – Sims-Walker had only two receptions for nine yards against the Titans last week. He gets the chance to bounce back against a Chiefs secondary giving up 170 yards receiving and 1.3 touchdowns per contest to opposing wide receivers.

Sell

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – It would be tough to sit Roethlisberger considering the numbers he has put up this season. With the Steelers leaning on the passing game this season Roethlisberger is averaging 295 yards passing and 1.6 touchdowns per game. This might be a good week to look at your depth as Roethlisberger faces a Broncos defense giving up only 198 yards passing and 0.5 passing touchdowns per game this season.

First Baltimore, now Pittsburgh? Save Moreno for another day. (photo by espn.com)

RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – The rookie running back is averaging 60 yards rushing per game this season. Those numbers would probably be higher if he weren’t competing for carries with Correll Buckhalter. He will have more than Buckhalter to contend with this week against a Steelers defense that is giving up only 60 yards rushing per game and only two rushing touchdowns for the season to opposing running backs.

WR Steve Smith, New York Giants – The third-year pro is averaging 83 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. However, it should be noted that most of his production came in the first four weeks of the season where he had two 100 yard games and scored a touchdown in three of the first four weeks. Over the last four weeks he has zero touchdowns and zero 100 yard games. It will be tough to break that streak this week against a Chargers secondary giving up only 98 yards receiving per game and just four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Matt Cassell? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – The Titans finally held an opposing quarterback to under 300 yards passing last week. But until they are able to do it two weeks in a row, they present a pretty good match-up for opposing quarterbacks. Smith has averaged 202 yards passing and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. With Michael Crabtree continuing to grow in the offense and Vernon Davis at tight end there should be enough weapons for Smith to put up points.

QB Matt Cassell, Kansas City Chiefs – You would have to be pretty desperate to look up Cassell who is averaging just 142 yards passing and 1.1 touchdowns per game this season. Still, if there is nothing else on the waiver wire he has a nice match-up against the Jaguars who are giving up 247 yards passing and 1.6 touchdowns per contest to opposing quarterbacks this season.

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