I had big plans for a draft guide. It was going to be huge. It was going to set the industry standard for years to come. It was going to get me a gig at ESPN and allow me to blow loserville. I assumed that everybody was one board because not a single staff writer or intern objected to my ambitious plans. Imagine my surprise when Mr. Conn and Mr. Thitoff informed me that I was the staff and we had no interns. Long story short, there will be no official draft guide from us this season. I do what to get my thoughts and predictions on the official record so over the next couple of weeks I will be doing so here. It might be a bit disjointed, it will be filled with typos and the editing with be terrible, but I hope that it helps you on your way to fantasy glory this season. At the very least it allows you a chance to mock my picks. Enough chit-chat….

The first thing that I do when I am putting together my cheat sheet is look at how things went down over the last eight weeks of the previous season. I ignore, for the most part, the playoffs as they are different animal. Mr. Conn disagrees with me on this, but we are talking about a guy who once made a tuna fish and Prego sandwich. Anyways,  looking at the last eight weeks of the regular season can help you spot some trends over the last half of the season that you ignored/forgot as well as help shape your draft strategy. You have to be careful as the trends can be misleading at times, as I’ll show later, but it is a great place to start.

Tampa Bay Quarterback Josh Freeman – If your draft strategy is to wait till the middles rounds before you start targeting your quarterback Freeman is a nice option to keep on your radar. Freeman finished the second half of the 2010 season with 15 touchdown passes (3rd most) and was the No. 5 fantasy quarterback. Over the last eight weeks he tossed at least two touchdowns in four games and threw at least one touchdown in all eight. He isn’t going to carry your team as he had zero 300-yard passing games and only one game with more than two touchdown passes for the season, but his steady and consistent production makes him a very nice commodity to have.

Buffalo Bills Running Back Fred Jackson – Over the last eight weeks of the season Jackson outscored Cleveland Browns Peyton Hillis, Tennessee Titans Chris Johnson and Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson. Smart money is that unless there is an injury that won’t happen again, but as the 30th running back off the board he present nice value. In the second half of the 2010 season Jackson was 9th in rushing yards while average 4.4 yards per carry. I like Jackson a lot in deeper leagues as flex option and as depth to the running back position. C.J. Spiller could cut into some of Jackson’s touches this season, but with an ADP in the late eight round he is worth taking a flyer on.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Mike Wallace – I’m all-in on Wallace this season. The Steelers wide receiver finished the second half of 2010 as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver. Over the last eight weeks of the season he had five games with at least 100 yards receiving and only once failed to hit the 75 yard receiving mark. Wallace’s value takes a bit of a hit in PPR (points per reception) leagues, but his 21 yards per catch average from last season means he only needs a couple of completion to be a solid contributor to your team. Wallace finished sixth overall in scoring at the position and could see a repeat or even an improvement on that with Ben Roethlisberger not having to serve a suspension to start the season (so far).

New York Giants Wide Receiver Mario Manningham – With a touchdown reception in each of his last five games Manningham finished the second half of 2010 as the league’s No. 5 fantasy wide receiver. With Steve Smith now with the Eagles, Manningham is the team’s clear No. 2 wide receiver and will see few double teams with Hakeem Nicks on the other side. Manningham is currently the 28^th wide receiver off most draft boards giving him nice value as a No. 2 or strong No. 3 wide receiver for your team.

As I mentioned above looking at the last eight weeks can sometimes be misleading. Matt Cassel is a perfect example of this. Over the last eight weeks of 2010 Cassel was ranked No. 8 in scoring at the quarterback position. However, it is important to note that five of those games came against teams that ranked in the top 11 in points given up to the quarterback position. In other words, those stats are a bit inflated. The Chiefs offense is likely to be focused around running backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones and not on the arm of Cassel.

That should take care of things for now. Over the next couple of weeks I plan on doing mini-breakdowns at each position, cover some sleepers /bust and go out on a limb with some predictions for the season. Feel free to use the comments if you want to mock some of my picks or simply want to let me know how awesome I am.

By Adam Helbling:

Week 16 Preview

We’re rolling out a new format this week which focuses on team defenses versus each skill position. So when you’re looking at each team’s defense stats the lower the number the better the match-up for its opponent, and vice-versa…

For example:
The Carolina Panthers have been the best team defending against the QB position over the last four weeks while they have been the second worst defending against the run. Carolina’s rank of 31 means in theory the Steelers may not fare as well in the passing game – And/or it could mean the running game could flourish due to Carolina’s low ranking of 2nd against opposing running backs. The higher the score, the better the team at defending x-position, and thus the harder the match up for said opponent. Conversely the lower the rank, the worse that team is at defending x-position, creating a stronger match up for said opponent.

Carolina Panthers At Pittsburgh Steelers

Panthers Defense
vs QBs – 31st (high rank bad match up for opponent)
vs RBs – 2nd (low rank equals great match up for opponent)
vs WRs – 25th

Injury News

Mike Goodson – Listed as questionable with the flu and missed Tuesday practice. Goodson’s absence should mean a few more touches for Jonathan Stewart, but against the Steelers defense it probably won’t matter much.

Chris Gamble – Currently listed as probable. If he plays, it hurts Mike Wallace and Hines Ward’s value.

Steelers Defense
vs QBs – 23nd
vs RBs – 31st
vs WRs – 21st

Injury News

Troy Polamalu – Returned to practice on a limited basis Monday. His current status is questionable, but he is looking to start Thursday.

Bryant McFadden – Expected to start Thursday. McFadden isn’t very good when he is 100 percent, but the Panthers don’t really have the passing game to take advantage here.

Aaron Smith – Might be start practicing this week, but won’t be playing Thursday.

Dallas Cowboys At Arizona Cardinals

Cowboys Defense
vs QBs – 2nd
vs RBs – 18th
vs WRs – 1st

Injury News

Felix Jones – Listed as questionable with a shin bruise. I think he plays and it is a nice match-up, but Choice will continue to poach a good deal of his value.

Roy Williams – Participated in the team’s walk-through, but is listed as questionable. If he doesn’t go, look for another strong game from Witten.

Marion Barber – Listed as questionable, but has done some work in practice lately. I would be leery of using Choice as a flex-play should Barber be activivated.

Cardinals Defense
vs QBs – 32nd
vs RBs – 6th
vs WRs – 27th

Injury News

Chris Wells – Will probably play and eat into Hightower’s value. I would only look to use Hightower as a flex in deep leagues.

New York Jets At Chicago Bears

Jets Defense
vs QBs – 16th
vs RBs – 23rd
vs WRs – 14th

Injury News

Damien Woody – Expected to miss the rest of the regular season and a big blow to the Jets run game.

Bears Defense
vs QBs – 3rd
vs RBs – 28th
vs WRs – 6th

New England Patriots At Buffalo Bills

Patriots Defense
vs QBs – 26th
vs RBs – 19th
vs WRs – 18th

Injury News

Aaron Hernandez – Listed as questionable with an illness. I would bet on him playing.

Bills Defense
vs QBs – 28th
vs RBs – 9th
vs WRs – 26th

Tennessee Titans At Kansas City Chiefs

Titans Defense
vs QBs – 10th
vs RBs – 15th
vs WRs – 11th

Chiefs Defense
vs QBs – 27th
vs RBs – 17th
vs WRs – 19th

Injury News

Jamaal Charles – Left in the fourth quarter last week, but it appeared simply to be an issue with cramps.

Washington Redskins At Jacksonville Jaguars

Redskins Defense
vs QBs – 21st
vs RBs – 3rd
vs WRs – 30th

Injury News

Ryan Torain – Listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but is expected to play this week in a nice match-up.

Brian Orakpo – Might be done for the season after suffering a groin and hamstring injury. Orakpo leads the team in sacks.

Jaguars Defense
vs QBs – 15th
vs RBs – 7th
vs WRs – 17th

Injury News

David Garrard – Listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but expected to start.

Maurice Jones-Drew – Listed as questionable with a knee injury, but expected to start.

Detroit Lions At Miami Dolphins

Lions Defense
vs QBs – 7th
vs RBs – 12th
vs WRs 7th

Injury News

Drew Stanton – A Grade 3 shoulder separation on his non-throwing shoulder. With Shaun Hill is expected to start this week so this news shouldn’t be of much concern.

Amari Spievey – One of the few positives in the Lions secondary this season injured his neck during warm-ups. Bump the Dolphins passing game if he can’t make it this week.

Louis Delmas – Suffered a concussion Sunday. He won’t be cleared till later in the week. The injuries are mounting for a pretty awful secondary making Brandon Marshall a better play this week.

Dolphins Defense
vs QBs – 22nd
vs RBs – 32nd
vs WRs – 13th

San Francisco 49ers At St. Louis Rams

49ers Defense
vs QBs – 9th
vs RBs – 25th
vs WRs – 2nd

Injury News

Anthony Dixon – Has stated that he expects to play against the Rams this week. With Westbrook and Dixon splitting the carries fairly evenly, including in the red zone, neither is really worth a look.

Rams Defense
vs QBs – 17th
vs RBs – 14th
vs WRs – 4th

Baltimore Ravens At Cleveland Browns

Ravens Defense
vs QBs – 5th
vs RBs – 29th
vs WRs – 8th

Injury News

Todd Heap – Heap’s hamstring kept him out of last week’s game. Reports are that he was close to playing which should put him on track to return to the line-up this week.

Browns Defense
vs QBs – 30th
vs RBs – 10th
vs WRs – 31st

Injury News

Scott Fujita – Was placed on injured reserve and is done for the season. Bump the Ravens run game a bit with the LB out.

Houston Texans At Denver Broncos

Texans Defense
vs QBs – 13th
vs RBs – 11th
vs WRs – 15th

Injury News

Arian Foster – Left last week’s game with an ankle injury, but has said he could have come back into the game if it were necessary. Look for him to return this week.

Broncos Defense
vs QBs – 18th
vs RBs – 1st
vs WRs – 24th

Injury News

Knowshon Moreno – Left last week’s game with a rib injury. There isn’t much info on his current status so fantasy owners should keep a close eye on this as the week advances.

Indianapolis Colts At Oakland Raiders

Colts Defense
vs QBs – 12th
vs RBs – 8th
vs WRs – 28th

Injury News

Austin Collie – Suffered yet another concussion last week. Safe money is on Collie being done for at least the regular season. Pierre Garcon’s value took a brief hit, but now returns to it’s Week 14 status.

Raiders Defense
vs QBs – 4th
vs RBs – 16th
vs WRs – 12th

Injury News

Richard Seymour – Left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. No current news on his status for this week.

Langston Walker – Suffered a concussion last week. He won’t be cleared to play, if at all, until he goes through the concussion tests later in the week.

San Diego Chargers At Cincinnati Bengals

Chargers Defense
vs QBs – 29th
vs RBs – 22nd
vs WRs – 29th

Injury News

Malcom Floyd – Was close to returning last week which is a good sign for Floyd returning this week. Hamstrings can be one of the more tricky injuries to return from. Look for him to be a game time decision.

Antonio Gates – Missed last week and is a good bet to miss this week. Be sure to have a replacement ready as this is likely to be another game time decision.

Bengals Defense
vs QBs – 14th
vs RBs – 27th
vs WRs – 5th

Injury News

Terrell Ownes – Out for the season. Ochocinco should see more targets, but Carson Palmer is his quarterback….

Seattle Seahawks At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seahawks Defense
vs QBs – 6th
vs RBs – 5th
vs WRs – 9th

Injury News

Marcus Trufant – Left with back spasms last week and missed the entire second half. Trufant missed most of last season with a back injury. Even if he plays this week, don’t look for him to be 100 percent giving Seattle’s Mike Williams a boost in value.

Buccaneers Defense
vs QBs – 11th
vs RBs – 13th
vs WRs – 10th

Injury News
James Lee – Left with an ankle injury in the second quarter. It is a nice match-up for Blount this week, but drop his value some if Lee is out.

New York Giants At Green Bay Packers

Giants Defense
vs QBs – 8th
vs RBs – 30th
vs WRs – 22nd

Injury News

Shaun O’Hara – Is currently listed as questionable with a foot injury. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw already have a tough match-up against the Packers run defense which could only get worse should O’Hara not play.

Packers Defense
vs QBs – 24th
vs RBs – 26th
vs WRs – 32nd

Injury News

Aaron Rodgers – Has been cleared to play this week.

Minnesota Vikings At Philadelphia Eagles

Vikings Defense
vs QBs – 25th
vs RBs – 24th
vs WRs – 16th

Injury News

Adrian Peterson – Currently listed as day-to-day with a thigh injury. Probably a game time decision here so make sure you have a replacement ready.

Brett Favre – Left Monday night’s game after suffering a concussion. Leslie Frazier has said that Joe Webb will get the start this week if Favre doesn’t go. Webb is a sneaky flex play in Yahoo leagues, which lists Webb as a WR, but otherwise has little value.

Eagles Defense
vs QBs – 1st
vs RBs – 21st
vs WRs – 3rd

Injury News

Nate Allen – Placed on IR with a torn patellar tendon. The Eagles secondary has struggled of late and this isn’t going to help matters. Joe Webb didn’t look like much of a passing threat last week so it probably doesn’t matter that much fantasy-wise.

Mike Patterson – The team is waiting on an MRI before declaring Patterson’s status.

New Orleans Saints At Atlanta Falcons

Saints Defense
vs QBs – 19th
vs RBs – 4th
vs WRs – 23rd

Injury News

Chris Ivory – Listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Reports are that he was close to starting last week so look for him to be back this week. However, with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush back in the mix as well as a strong Falcons run D passing on Ivory this week could be a good move.

Jabari Greer – Good news, tests were negative for significant damage on Greer’s knee. Bad news, he still might not play. Without Greer, bump Roddy White’s value.

Falcons Defense
vs QBs – 20th
vs RBs – 20th
vs WRs – 20th

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

Week 15 Preview – Match-Ups To Know

All stats are based off the last four weeks unless otherwise noted.

San Francisco 49ers At San Diego Chargers

Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson both have nice match-ups against a 49ers defense giving up the 5th most points per game to opposing wide receivers. Over the last month the 49ers have allowed 166 yards receiving and 1.5 touchdown receptions per game to the position. Jackson is still working his way into game shape so Floyd is likely to see the most targets, as he did last week. Ryan Mathews return to the line-up lessens Mike Tolbert’s value and with the 49ers allowing just 3.5 yards per carry neither should be counted on as more than a flex play.

Don’t look for the 49ers to put up 40 points against the Chargers like they did last week. The Chargers rank in the top 10 defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver positions while giving up under four yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Buffalo Bills At Miami Dolphins

Surprisingly the Bills have given up the second fewest points to the quarterback position, but it should be noted that the competition they have faced over the last month hasn’t been among the elite. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown could serve as decent flex plays in deeper leagues with the Bills giving up over 4.5 yards per carry, 153 yards rushing and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game to the position.

The Miami Dolphins rank in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Arizona Cardinals At Carolina Panthers

Both Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson have averaged over five yards per carry over the last month and have both made decent No. 2 RB options the last couple of weeks. They have a favorable play this week against a Cardinals defense giving up 4.8 yards per carry, 158 yards rushing and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the position.

Tim Hightower has averaged 73 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game over the last month. He could make a nice play as a No. 2 running back this week against a Panthers defense giving up 130 yards rushing and 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Larry Fitzgerald has a tough match-up this week with the Panthers ranked 9th defending against the position over the last month.

New Orleans Saints At Baltimore Ravens

The Saints have given up an average of 180 yards receiving and 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game over the last month giving up the 8th most points per game to the position. Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason have both averaged over 50 yards receiving per contest and make strong No. 3 WR options.

Chris Ivory left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. It isn’t thought to be serious, but owners should keep track of his progress during the week. Even if healthy, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are likely to split carries limiting their value. With the Ravens ranked 5th defending against the running back position be sure to explore all your options before playing either ope.

Jacksonville Jaguars At Indianapolis Colts

Joseph Addai’s status this week is unknown, although he was able to participate in Monday’s light practice. If Addai is healthy he does have a nice match-up against a Jaguars defense giving up nearly five yards (4.8) per carry. If Addai is unable to go look for Javarris James to get the bulk of the work at running back. His numbers haven’t been overly impressive, but he has found the end zone three times over the last two weeks.

MJD has been one of the league’s most productive running backs over the last month averaging 133 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. With the Colts giving up 149 yards rushing and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game to the position he should be considered a top RB candidate this week. The Colts have done well defending against the wide receiver position the last month giving up under 100 yards receiving and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game to the position.

Detroit Lions At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Freeman doesn’t put up the type of numbers that will single-handedly win games for his owners, but his steady production at the position currently ranks him 11th in scoring among quarterbacks. With the Lions giving up 263 yards passing and 2 passing touchdowns per game he should be considered a low-end No. 1 QB this week. Arrelious Benn has been the team’s most productive wide receiver over the last month despite three less targets a game than Mike Williams. Both have good match-ups against a Lions defense giving up the 7th most points to the position per game. Even with the favorable match-up we wouldn’t recommend a play here unless you are in a very deep league.

Philadelphia Eagles At New York Giants

Hakeem Nicks had a nice return to the Giants line-up last week with seven receptions and 96 yards. Unfortunately, the Giants will be without Steve Smith for the season and possibly Mario Manningham this week. The injuries may hurt Nicks’ value, but he has a good match-up with the Eagles giving up 243 yards passing and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have been strong No. 2 RB options over the last month. Jacobs has averaged 79 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. Bradshaw has averaged 70 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. It will be a tough match-up for both backs this week as the Eagles are giving up just 77 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per contest to the position.

The Giants defensive rushing numbers are a bit misleading. While they rank in the top 10 defending against the position over the last month, they have given up over five yards per carry as well. LeSean McCoy is averaging 6.9 yards per carry over the last month and should be a decent No. 2 RB option this week.

Kansas City Chiefs At St. Louis Rams

Steven Jackson is averaging 81 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game over the last month making him a decent flex option in leagues. The Chiefs have been a  middle of the road defense against the position giving up 118 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. However, they are also giving up 5.1 yards per carry. Count Jackson as a solid candidate at the flex position or a low end No. 2 RB.

Matt Cassel is expected to start this week after missing last week’s game following a mid-week appendectomy. He has a nice match-up against a Rams defense giving up 242 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game. Dwayne Bowe has just one reception for three yards over the last two weeks. With Matt Cassel returning to the line-up and the Rams giving up 168 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdown receptions per game to the position Bowe should return to fantasy relevancy this week.

Washington Redskins At Dallas Cowboys

The Redskins have given up the 7th fewest points to the quarterback position over the last month, but it should be noted that the best quarterback they have faced during this time is Josh Freeman. The Redskins secondary has struggled for most of the season. Carlos Rodgers has missed three straight starts, but is expected to return this week and LaRon Landry was recently placed on Injured Reserve. With their secondary less than 100 percent and Jon Kitna averaging 217 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game Kitna could be a sneaky low-end No. 1. Felix Jones has averaged 93 offensive yards and 0.3 touchdowns over the last month and faces a Redskins defense giving up five yards per carry and makes a strong flex play or low end No. 2 RB this week.

The Redskins passing game could be in for a nice week with the Cowboys giving up the 3rd most points to the quarterbacks position and the most points to the wide receiver position per game over the last month.

Cleveland Browns At Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy owners should explore all their options before counting on the Bengals passing game this week. Over the last month the Browns rank in the top 5 defending against the quarterback and wide receiver positions. Benson is averaging just 58 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game over the last month. Still, he has a strong match-up with the Browns giving up 133 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Consider him a decent flex match-up this week.

The Bengals have had a middle of the road run defense over the last month ranking 15th defending against the position. Fantasy owners should note that the Bengals are giving up 4.9 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown per game. Hillis is the focal point of the Browns offense and should be considered a No. 1 RB this week.

Houston Texans At Tennessee Titans

If you are in a pinch at quarterback this week and willing to take a gamble Kerry Collins could be worth a look. Collins is averaging 207 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game and faces a defense giving up 248 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game.

Matt Schaub has thrown at least two touchdown passes in three straight games while averaging 291 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game over the last month. With the Titans giving up the 9th most points to the position, Schaub should be considered a strong play as a No. 1 quarterback.

Atlanta Falcons At Seattle Seahawks

There are plenty of good match-ups for fantasy owners with a Falcon on their roster. The Seahawks rank in the top 10 in points given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

New York Jets At Pittsburgh Steelers

Rashard Mendenhall has struggled over the last two weeks failing to find the end zone or rush for more than 70 yards. With the Jets only giving up 3.3 yards per carry over the last month be sure to explore all your options before counting on Mendenhall.

Passing on the Jets this week could be a smart play for fantasy owners with the Steelers ranking in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Denver Broncos At Oakland Raiders

With Denver giving up two passing touchdowns and 220 yards passing per game over the last month Jason Campbell could be a risky play that pays off for fantasy owners. The Broncos are giving up 141 yards rushing and 1 rushing touchdown per game making Darren McFadden a strong play despite averaging just 59 yards rushing yards per game during the same period of time.

There are plenty of strong match-up for the Broncos this week with the Raiders ranking in the top 10 in points given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Green Bay Packers At New England Patriots

The Patriots have been match-up proof over the last month with their offense averaging 40 points per game during this period of time. Fantasy owners should take note that the Packers defense ranks in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

The health of Aaron Rodgers (concussion)  will dictate the value of his teammates.

Chicago Bears At Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson is a must start regardless of match-up, but with the Bears giving up just one rushing touchdown over the last month and 75 yards rushing per game to the position during the same period of time consider him a weak play.

The Vikings rank 6th defending against the running back position over the last month, but did just give up over 100 yards rushing and one touchdown to both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw last week. Matt Forte should be considered a low end No. 2 running back this week.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

The Hanukkah Spectacular

The staff at 411 is only one-third Jewish, but fully engaged in making sure Hanukkah gets its proper due and that Helbling has too much writing to do on a shortened work week.

411 All-Bust Team

The following players may not have ruined your season, but they are doing their best to do so. We like to refer to this group as Syrian-Greek soldiers. Fantasy owners spent high round draft picks for these players with plans for them to be the cornerstone to their championship season, plans that have since been thrown on the their war room throne. Players that suffered an injury that result in a prolonged absence were forgiven their transgressions, but all others were fair game for their desecration of rosters world-wide.

Quarterback

Houston Texans Matt Schaub – Schaub was the 5th quarterback taken off the board in most preseason drafts, but is currently ranked 16th among quarterbacks according to ESPN rankings. In ESPN’s standard scoring leagues he has had five games under 10 points compared to Matt Ryan who has just two games under 10. In most cases Matt Ryan was taken five rounds later than Schaub. Compared to this point last season Schaub has 361 fewer passing yards and five fewer touchdown passes. While his numbers have been better over the last month, Schaub’s 11.8 points per game over the first eight weeks of the season probably put his owners in a hole they are still trying to dig out of.

Running Back

Baltimore Ravens Ray Rice – If you held a draft today Ray Rice would probably not be the third running back off the board like he was during the preseason. Rice is currently the 13th ranked running back according to ESPN standard scoring leagues, has just three touchdowns in two games and only one game with at least 100 yards rushing. Rice has just six more fantasy points than Mike Tolbert despite having 68 more rushing attempts.

Wide Receiver

Tennessee Titans Randy Moss – Mario Manningham, Derrick Mason, Nate Washington, Davone Bess, Nate Burleson, Brian Hartline all have more fantasy points than Randy Moss. BRIAN HARTLINE has more fantasy points than Randy Moss! Moss hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6, his season high in receiving yards is 81 and he has averaged 1.2 receptions and 14 yards receiving over his last five games. The biggest surprise at this point is that he is still owned in over 95 percent of leagues.

Tight End

Philadelphia Eagles Brent Celek - Over the last several years the tight end position has been one of the most top heavy in fantasy football. With NFL teams increasingly incorporating the tight end in their passing game there are now more options than ever for owners that have missed out on Antonio Gates. Celek was supposed to be one of those tight ends but has failed to live up to expectations. For the season Celek has eight games with under five points and from Weeks 7-11 failed to score a single point.

Un-honorable Mention – Brett Favre, Shonn Greene, Larry Fitzgerald, Visanthe Shiancoe

The Great Eight

We celebrate these eight players, otherwise known as the Maccabees, who are a cut above the rest in recognition of Hanukkah’s eight great nights.

Quarterbacks

Philadelphia Eagles Michael Vick – Vick is currently tied for fourth overall in ESPN standard league scoring despite playing in just nine games this season. In seven of his nine games Vick has scored over 20 points per game. Vick’s six rushing touchdowns are more than Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson and Ray Rice. With Vick going undrafted in nearly all formats it is harder to find more value this year and few players have been able to compete with his production.

Denver Broncos Kyle Orton – Orton went undrafted in most leagues, but is currently the 3rd ranked QB in ESPN scoring formats. Out of Orton’s 13 starts he has six games with at least 300 yards passing and six games with multiple touchdown passes. He is currently ranked 3rd in passing yards and 9th in passing touchdowns averaging 291 yards passing and 1.7 passing touchdowns per game.

Running Backs

Cleveland Browns Peyton Hillis - If you haven’t noticed a running theme in this section it is undrafted players who are among the league leaders in scoring. Hillis is ranked 10th in rushing attempts, but is second in scoring among running backs in ESPN standard scoring. For the season Hillis only has two games where he either failed to find the end zone or total at least 100 yards of total offense.

Philadelphia Eagles LeSean McCoy – After being the 17th running back off most fantasy boards in the preseason McCoy is currently ranked 3rd in scoring among running backs in ESPN standard scoring leagues. In PPR leagues McCoy is even more valuable leading all running backs with 67 receptions.

Houston Texans Arian Foster – Foster was a mid-fourth round draft pick in most 10 team leagues, but currently leads the league in scoring in ESPN standard leagues. Foster has just one game where he has scored less than 10 points and in his 13 starts has 8 games of at least 20 points.

Wide Receivers

Denver Broncos Brandon Lloyd – With Lloyd we return to out theme of undrafted players challenging the elites of their position. Lloyd currently leads the league in receiving yards and is fourth in receiving touchdowns. Over the last five weeks of the season Lloyd has six touchdowns and has averaged 89 yards receiving and 0.7 touchdowns per game.

Kansas City Chiefs Dwayne Bowe – After the first five weeks of the season many fantasy owners were probably considering dropping Bowe. Since Week 6 Bowe has totaled 733 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns. Bowe’s 14 touchdowns for the season currently leads the league.

Tight End

San Diego Chargers Antonio Gates – Gates has been limited over the last four weeks with a foot injury and has missed two games. Despite that Gates leads all tight ends in ESPN standard scoring leagues by 40 points, or 3.1 points per game. His average of 78 yards receiving and one touchdown per game has given his fantasy owners the kind of point cushion that wins championships.

411’s Crystal Ball

If the only leagues you have ever participated in are redraft leagues do yourself a favor and make playing in a keeper or dynasty league a top priority for next season. Nothing against redraft leagues, we play in several ourselves, but the true test of a fantasy owner’s skills isn’t just drafting for the current season but also for the seasons to come. The following players are for dynasty or keeper league owners looking to strengthen their teams next season. We liken these players to the oil in the menorah that lasted eight days, instead of its projected one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback Josh Freeman – In ESPN standard scoring leagues Freeman is currently the 13th ranked quarterback and is just seven points out of the top 10. Considering that Freeman wasn’t even drafted in most leagues he has given owners pretty solid value. His numbers certainly aren’t eye popping, but they have been extremely consistent. He only has one game under 10 points and has scored at least 15 in six of his 12 starts. The Bucs have a young group of offense weapons in Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn and LeGarrette Blount that should continue to elevate Freeman’s numbers in the years to come. Freeman might not develop into Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees, but he should be a consistent top 10 quarterback for years to come.

San Diego Chargers Running Back Ryan Mathews – The Chargers traded up in the draft to select Mathews with plans that he would be the focal point of their running game. Injuries and the emergence of Mike Tolbert have prevented that from happening. Mathews will likely be stuck sharing carries next season, but is the more versatile and talented of the team’s backfield. Mathews, at a minimum, looks to be a solid flex or bye-week/injury fill-in next season should he avoid injuries. Mathews is currently owned in nearly all leagues, but could be had on the cheap in a trade.

Tennessee Titans Wide Receiver Kenny Britt – Britt made an appearance in this section of last year’s Hanukkah Spectacular. While Britt won’t put up big receiving numbers in the Titans’ run first offense his size makes him an ideal red-zone candidate. Britt started the season slow, but scored at least one touchdown in five straight games before suffering an injury that has held him out of action since Week 7. With Britt available in nearly 50 percent of leagues you might be able to find him on the waiver wire and stash him for next season.

Green Bay Packers Tight End Jermichael Finley – Two things that Finley has in common with Britt is that he appeared on this list last season and an injury has prevented us from bragging about how right we were. Finley’s size and speed combo makes him a tough match-up for any defense and his three out of four games to start the season with at least 100 yards receiving or a touchdown highlight the potential he has. Finley is available in nearly 60 percent of leagues and is another nice candidate to stash for next season.

Four “Miracles” that happened during Hanukkah we can all appreciate.

No. 4

Brett Keisel’s beard. It has only further inspired Conn to keep growing his after 10 weeks and counting….

No. 3

Premature celebrations. We like punters. Josh Miller was once one.

No. 2

Insane plays. Just when you thought Driver’s oil was about to run out…

No. 1

Favre is one old piece of gelt that continues to leave a bitter taste in our mouth. Word is he’ll try and suit up in Week 14…. Reason one and one only why we can’t wait for the season to end.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

Week 14 Preview – Match-ups To Know

By Adam Helbling:

All stats are based off the last four week unless otherwise noted.

Indianapolis Colts At Tennessee Titans

There is no better example at just how poor the Titans offense has played over the last two weeks than Chris Johnson’s total of 58 yards rushing during this period of time. This could be his bounce back week with the Colts giving up 4.5 yards per carry, 137 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game. WR Kenny Britt is not on the team’s injury report for the first time since his hamstring injury. He shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option, but should help open things up in the team’s passing game and take some pressure off of Johnson.

Peyton Manning has averaged two passing touchdowns and over 300 yards passing per game, but his 2.75 interceptions per game has limited his fantasy production. Still Manning should be considered a No. 1 quarterback this week with the Titans giving up 250 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game to the position. The Titans have given up 150 yards rushing per game, but with Joseph Addai’s availability unknown and Donald Brown’s struggles, not to mention an ankle injury, this is a situation to avoid. If you are desperate for a play at running back, Javarris James could make a sneaky play.

Cleveland browns At Buffalo Bills

Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 220 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game making a decent option in deeper leagues. But Cleveland ranks in the top 5 defending against the position and averaging two interceptions per game so it is a weak match-up. Fred Jackson has averaged 127 offensive yards per game and 1.3 offensive touchdowns over the last month. Consider him a low end No. 2 running back against a Browns offense giving up 129 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per contest to the position. Both Steve Johnson and Lee Evans have weak plays this week against a Browns defense who rank 5th defending against the wide receiver position.

Peyton Hillis is one of the few fantasy options on the Browns averaging 80 yards rushing and 1.3 touchdowns per game. It is a good match-up for the Browns running game with the Bills giving up 129 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Washington Redskins

The Redskins will be short on strong match-ups this week with the Bucs ranking in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

The emergence of LeGarrette Blount has reenergized the Bucs running game. Over the last month Blount has averaged 83 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. The Redskins are giving up over five yards per carry, 152 yards rushing and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game – Blount makes a strong No. 1 running back this week.

New York Giants At Minnesota Vikings

Who starts at quarterback this week for the Vikings remains to be seen, but whoever it is has a nice match-up against a Giants defense giving up 261 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game to the position.

Both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have averaged over 50 yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game over the last month. With neither player assuming a clear cut No. 1 role and a Vikings defense ranked No. 1 defending against the running back position neither player should be considered more than a flex option or low end No. 2 running back in deeper leagues.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

The only fantasy options on the Panthers are Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart. Next to the Falcons, only the Bears and Vikings have given up fewer points per game to the position over the last month making both weak plays.

Matt Ryan has been a decent fantasy start over the last month averaging 240 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game. With the Panthers ranking in the top 10 defending against the position fantasy owners should make sure they don’t have a better option on their bench. Roddy White is a must start regardless of match-up, but faces a defense that have given up the 7th fewest points to the position over the last month. Michael Turner has the best match-up of any NFL running back this week as the Panthers are giving up 138 yards rushing and 2.3 rushing touchdowns per game.

Green Bay Packers At Detroit Lions

The Packers defense currently ranks in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. Calvin Johnson remains a must start, but fantasy owners should lower their expectations.

Aaron Rodgers has had three touchdowns in three of his last four games and has averaged 314 yards passing per game over the last month. Rodgers should turn in another strong performance this week as only the Raiders and Broncos have given up more points to the position. James Starks looks to have taken over the team’s No. 1 rushing role and had a strong performance last week with 18 carries and 73 yards rushing. With the Lions giving up the 4th most points to the position, Starks makes a key waiver wire pick-up and nice play this week.

Oakland Raiders At Jacksonville Jaguars

David Garrard has a nice match-up this week against a Raiders defense that has given up 287 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game. It is no coincidence that CB Nnamdi Asomugha (ankle) missed four weeks before returning, perhaps a bit too early, last week. Against the Dolphins Asomugha gave up 65 yards to Brian Hartline – in the first half. Given his slow return, both Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas have nice upside against a Raiders defense giving up the 8th most points to the wide receiver position.

Darren McFadden’s production has taken a nose dive over the last month as he has averaged just 37 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game. It could be tough for him to get things back on track this week with the Jaguars ranking 7th defending against the running back position.

Cincinnati Bengals At Pittsburgh Steelers

Rashard Mendenhall has had just one 100-yard rushing game since Ben Roethlisberger  returned as starter. Mendenhall has consistently found the end zone scoring in five of the team’s last eight games. The Bengals rank in the top 10 defending against the position, but Mendenhall did have 99 yards rushing and one touchdown in their Week 9 match-up. The weakest area on the Bengals defense over the last month has been defending against opposing wide receivers. During this period of time they have given up 171 yards receiving and 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game.

Saint Louis Rams At New Orleans Saints

Pierre Thomas owners waiting for his return might be disappointed after head coach Sean Payton stated that he doesn’t want to lighten Chris Ivory’s workload. Payton has said that he is ‘cautiously optimistic’ that Thomas will play this weekend. Ivory has averaged 5.6 yards per carry, 85 yards rushing and 1.7 touchdowns per game over the last month. Fantasy owners would be best to take a wait and see approach on who plays and how many carries each back receives. Regardless of how the carries breakdown it isn’t a good match-up with the Rams ranking in the top 10 defending against the position.

Seattle Seahawks At San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks pass defense ranks in the top 5 in points allowed to both opposing quarterback and wide receivers. The problem is that counting on the 49ers offense is a risky proposition at best. QB Alex Smith will start this week, which is good news for Vernon Davis owners. Davis put up good numbers with Troy Smith under center last week, but with Smith Davis is far more consistent. He is a safe No. 1 option again.

New England Patriots At Chicago Bears

Despite their strong Monday night performance, the Patriots rank in the top 10 in points allowed to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Tom Brady has averaged 300 yards passing and 3.3 passing touchdowns per game over the last month. With the Bears ranked in the top 10 defending against the position it isn’t a favorable match-up, but Brady is a must start. Wes Welker and Deion Branch have both averaged 79 yards receiving per game, but also face a tough match-up with the Bears ranking in the top 10 defending against the wide receiver position.

Miami Dolphins At New York Jets

Mark Sanchez has thrown for less than 200 yards passing and has just one touchdown over the last two weks. It won’t get any easier for Sanchez or the Jets wide receivers with the Dolphins ranking in the top 10 defending against the quarterback and wide receivers positions.

Denver Broncos At Arizona Cardinals

There are plenty of nice match-ups for the Cardinals this week with the Broncos ranking in the top 10 in points given up per game to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. But the Cardinals QB situation, let alone the offense, is in such disarray start them at your own risk. Larry Fitzgerald has been no better than a flex play of late while Tim Hightower may provide some injury relief, also at the flex spot.

Kyle Orton has averaged 244 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game over the last month, but with the Cardinals in the top 3 defending against the position make sure you look at other options. Knowshon Moreno is averaging over five yards per carry over the last month and has been a solid option for fantasy owners. With the Cardinals giving up only 65 yards rushing per game to the position downgrade Moreno’s value this week.

Kansas City Chiefs At San Diego Chargers

If you have a Charger on your roster starting them this week could pay-off with the Chiefs ranking in the top 10 in points given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Entering last week Cassel had been averaging three touchdown passes per game over his last four starts. He posted disappointing numbers last week with just 196 yards passing and one passing touchdown against the Broncos. He could be in for another rough week with the Chargers ranked in the top 10 defending against the position. After seven straight games with at least one touchdown, Dwayne Bowe put zeros up across the board last week. Those numbers should certainly go up this week, but he does not have a favorable match-up against a Chargers defense ranking in the top 10 defending against the position.

Philadelphia Eagles At Dallas Cowboys

Felix Jones and Tashard Choice both have strong match-ups this week against an Eagles defense giving up 5.9 yards per carry over the last month.

Start your Eagles this week. The Cowboys may be winning, but they are still having their struggles on defense ranking in the top 10 in points allowed per game to all three skill positions.

Baltimore Ravens At Houston Texans

Arian Foster has averaged 92 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game over the last month. Hitting that mark will be tough this week with the Ravens giving up 72 yards rushing per game and just on rushing touchdown over the last month.

Joe Flacco has averaged 268 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game over the last month. With the Texans defense ranked in the top 5 in points given up to the position per game, Flacco should be considered a low-end No. 1 quarterback this week.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

By Adam Helbling:

Week 13 Preview – Match-ups To Know

All stats are based off the last four weeks unless otherwise stated.

Houston Texans At Philadelphia Eagles

The Texans allowed only 138 yards passing to Rusty Smith last week and even with that number in the mix are giving up 275 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the last month. Shorter version; Start Vick, Maclin and Jackson. The one area where the Texans defense has done well is against the run, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry.

Despite his fight last week Andre Johnson avoided suspension due to a loophole in NFL rules that gives players a pass on everything if their next game happens to be on the NFL Network. CB Asante Samuel looks to be on track to be back in the line-up for the Eagles, but if he isn’t Johnson has to be considered a top 5 wide receiver candidate this week.

Buffalo Bills At Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson’s ankle injury appears only to be a sprain, but his status is currently uncertain at this time and will probably remain that way until kick-off.

Fred Jackson has turned in a string of strong performances of late. He has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three games and managed to average 4.9 yards per carry last week against the Steelers run defense. However, the Vikings are giving up just 2.6 yards per carry to the position. He is best used as a flex play this week.

Cleveland Browns At Miami Dolphins

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have a nice match-up with the Browns giving up 122 yards rushing and 4.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Both make strong flex plays or low end No. 2 running backs in deeper leagues.

Regardless of who starts for the Browns this week at quarterback, it isn’t a good match-up. The Dolphins have given up the second fewest points per game to the position over the last month.

Jacksonville Jaguars At Tennessee Titans

Last week David Garrard broke his string of four straight games with multiple touchdown passes, throwing for just 162 yards passing and zero touchdowns. He has a decent match-up against a Titans secondary that has given up 292 yards passing per game over the last month. MJD has a decent match-up this week with the Titans giving up the 10th most points per game to the running back position over the last month.

New Orleans Saints At Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals will be short of favorable match-ups with the Saints ranking in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver position.

The Bengals secondary has struggled over the last month giving up 152 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdown receptions per game. Marques Colston has had two straight 100-yard receiving games and should be considered a No. 1 WR this week.

Denver Broncos At Kansas City Chiefs

There are plenty of strong match-ups for the Chiefs this week. The Broncos defense ranks in the top 3 in points given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd are both strong plays this week with the Chiefs ranking in the top 10 in points per game given to to both the quarterback and wide receiver positions. The Chiefs numbers against the run are a bit misleading. They are only giving up 92 yards rushing per game, but are giving up 4.6 yards per carry.

Washington Redskins At New York Giants

You have to downgrade Eli Manning’s value with the the number of wide receivers on the roster injured, but he has a good match-up with the Redskins giving up 244 yards passing and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game. Both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are strong plays this week with the Redskins giving up 5.6 yards per carry.

Chicago Bears At Detroit Lions

Shaun Hill has made a decent start for fantasy owners over the last month averaging 245 yards passing and 1.4 passing touchdowns per game, but he is out this week with a shoulder injury. Enter third-stringer Drew Stanton. In addition the Bears defense ranks  in the top 10 defending against the position over the last month. The Bears have also been one of the league’s best defending against the run over the last month giving up just 45 yards rushing per game to the position.

Jay Cutler has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games, including four last week against the Eagles. He has a nice match-up this week against a Lions defense giving up 239 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per game.

San Francisco 49ers At Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is a must start regardless of match-up, but Rodgers and his receivers face a tough match-up with the 49ers ranking in the top 10 defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

The Packers rank in the top 5 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. With Frank Gore going on IR finding value on the 49ers roster will be a tough task.

Oakland Raiders At San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are loaded with strong plays this week. The Raiders rank in the top 10 in points per game given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Jacoby Ford has had over 100-yards receiving in two of the team’s last three games, but with the Chargers ranked 8th defending against the wide receiver position look elsewhere before counting on Ford.

Atlanta Falcons At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Freeman has thrown for at least one touchdown in eight straight games and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games. He has a nice match-up this week against a Falcons defense giving up 245 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game. The Falcons also rank 9th in points per game given up to the wide receiver position giving Mike Williams a nice match-up. Passing on LeGarrette Blount this week could be wise with the Falcons allowing just 52 yards rushing per game and zero rushing touchdowns to the running back position over the last month.

Roddy White and Michael Turner are must starts regardless of match-up, but owners should take note that the Bucs rank in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Dallas Cowboys At Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning and the Colts passing game should get back on track this week facing a Cowboys secondary that ranks in the top 10 in points per game given up to the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

St. Louis Rams At Arizona Cardinals

If the Cardinals are to get out of their offensive funk it could be this week with the Rams ranking in the top 10 in points given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Steven Jackson has a great match-up against the Cardinals who are giving up 145 yards rushing and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game.

Carolina Panthers At Seattle Seahawks

Only the Cardinals have given up more points to the running back position over the last month than the Panthers. Opposing running backs are averaging 135 yards rushing and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game during this period of time. The Panthers have done well in limiting production from the wide receiver position giving up just 137 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdown receptions per game.

Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson are strong plays this week with the Seahawks giving up 4.7 yards per carry, 146 yards rushing and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per contest to the running back position. Steve Smith could be in for a rare good game for the Panthers this week. Over the last month the Seahawks have given up more points to the wide receiver position per contest than any other team in the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers At Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens defense isn’t as feared as they once were but have played well over the last month of the season. During this period of time they rank in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

New York Jets At New England Patriots

There aren’t many strong match-up for Patriots owners this week against a Jets defense ranking in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Meanwhile the Jets could be in for nice offensive numbers this week with the Patriots ranking in the top 10 in points given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

Week 12 Preview – Match-ups To Know

Unless otherwise noted all stats are based off the last four weeks of the season.

New England Patriots At Detroit Lions

The New England Patriots have been crowned the league’s best team by most pundits, but I don’t expect them to hold the title that long. Lost in all the love heaped on Brady and company is that the defense is pretty bad. It ranks sixth in points given up to the quarterback position and fifth in points given up to both the running back and wide receiver position. Both QB Shaun Hill and WR Calvin Johnson are strong plays this week.

With no true No. 1 target and a heavy reliance on tight ends, finding value at wide receiver is tough. If I had to pick one, I would go with Wes Welker. However with the Lions only giving up 115 yards receiving and one touchdown to the position I wouldn’t consider him more than a weak No. 2.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Nate Burleson – Burleson has had nice value in PPR leagues recording seven receptions in three of his last four games. The Pats secondary will focus on Johnson giving Burleson plenty of space to work.

New Orleans Saints At Dallas Cowboys

There are plenty of match-ups to avoid if you own a Cowboy. The Saints rank in the top five defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Look for QB Drew Brees and the Saints wide receivers to have another big day against the Cowboys. Dallas is giving up 2.8 touchdown passes and over 300 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Cincinnati Bengals At New York Jets

The Bengals have allowed the eighth most points to opposing wide receivers making Santonio Holmes a strong No. 2 fantasy option this week. The Bengals rank middle of the road defending against the running back position, but have given up over four yards per carry and struggled defending against Fred Jackson last week. I think both LT and Shonn Greene make strong flex plays.

The Jets rank in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions so start Cincinnati players at your own risk.

Sleeper Pick…

Greene – I think the Jets control this game better than they have the last two and are able to lean on the run game a bit more. Greene has looked like the better runner of the two of the last month and I think is due for a break-out game.

Jacksonville Jaguars At New York Giants

RB Ahmad Bradshaw officially lost his starting job after coughing up his fifth fumble on Sunday night. So much for the vote of confidence from Tom Coughlin… Either way, the  Jacksonville defense is giving up just 2.7 yards per carry.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Derek Hagan – With both Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith out Mario Manningham is going to attract the attention making Hagan an interesting option.

Minnesota Vikings At Washington Redskins

Interim head coach Leslie Frazier has said that Brett Favre will be the starting quarterback and will face a Redskins defense that is giving up 257 yards passing and 2.7 passing touchdowns to the quarterback position. If you have held on to Favre despite his bad play this season you could be rewarded this week. RB Adrian Peterson is a safe bet to put up strong numbers this week – the Redskins give up over five yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Redskins struggled to match the speed of the Eagles receivers Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson in Week 11. Percy Harvin has similar speed and should be considered a No. 2 wide receiver this week.

QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Greg Jennings showed how weak the Vikings defense is against the pass and while QB Donovan McNabb and WR Santana Moss aren’t at the same level they should put up decent numbers. The Vikings have given up the eighth most points to opposing quarterbacks and the sixth most points to the wide receiver position over the last month.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Sidney Rice – Despite playing just his first game of the season after being activated off the PUP list, Rice lead the team in targets with 10 last week. He might not play every snap, but he looks to be Favre’s favorite target.

Green Bay Packers At Atlanta Falcons

The Packers rank in the top 5 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver position.

The Falcons are one of the league’s best defending against the running back position. Over the last month they haven’t allowed a touchdown and have given up just 60 yards rushing to the position per game. Thankfully, the Packers aren’t a running team.

Sleeper Pick…

WR James Jones – Jones has posted either 100 yards or a touchdown in three of his last four games. The return of WR Donald Driver is going to hurt his value, but James has big play ability and the Falcons have had their struggles defending the pass this season.

Carolina Panthers At Cleveland Browns

Despite having just 18 carries over the first two weeks of the season RB Peyton Hillis is a top 5 running back in most leagues and is a must start regardless of match-up. That match-up happens to be a good one this week against with the Panthers giving up over four yards per carry to go along with 114 yards rushing and one touchdown per game to the position.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Mohamed Massaquoi – I trust this pick a lot more if McCoy is in the line-up and even then I don’t know if I would have the guts to start him. However, it looks as if Massaquoi and McCoy are developing a bit of chemistry.

Pittsburgh Steelers At Buffalo Bills

For the second week in a row RB Fred Jackson had over 100 yards rushing and has scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Don’t bet on him duplicating those numbers this week. The Steelers are giving up just 59 yards rushing per game and have given up only one touchdown to the position.

RB Rashard Mendenhall has hit the 100-yard mark only twice this season and not once since Week 3. He has a shot to hit that number this week against a Bills unit giving up 125 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.

Sleeper Pick…

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Steelers defense have shown some cracks defending against the pass and Fitzpatrick is averaging 246 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game over the last month.

Tennessee Titans At Houston Texans

QB Matt Schaub owners have to be disappointed with his production this season. In most leagues he was drafted as a top 5 quarterback, but his production sees him sitting outside the top 10. Schaub should be in for a strong Week 12 with the Titans giving up 334 yards passing and 1.7 touchdowns per game. RB Arian Foster has a nice match-up this week as well with the Titans ranking in the top 5 in points given up to the position.

The Texans defense is giving up 305 yards passing and 2.8 passing touchdowns per game and have given up the fourth most points to opposing quarterbacks. You won’t catch us endorsing QB Rusty Davis, but it is a great match-up. WR Randy Moss is no longer a must start, but has a good match-up with the Texans giving up over 200 yards receiving and 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Nate Washington – Washington stated publicly that he didn’t think the Titans need Randy Moss, but since the team signed Moss, Washington has totaled 143 yards receiving and one touchdown. Moss should continue to draw the attention of secondaries, with Washington benefiting.

Kansas City Chiefs At Seattle Seahawks

With the Seahawks running game MIA, it will have to lean on the passing game to put up points. The Chiefs are giving up 262 yards passing and 2 passing touchdown per game which makes Matt Hasselbeck a strong play.

There are plenty of good match-ups for the Chiefs this week with the Seahawks ranking in the top 5 in points giving up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Mike Williams – Williams is questionable with a sprained foot and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7, but is averaging 75 yards receiving per game and has over 100 yards in two straight. If he’s in the starting lineup he’s got a good match up.

Miami Dolphins At Oakland Raiders

There isn’t much to get excited about in the Raiders passing game, but if you are for some reason looking for help keep in mind the Dolphins defense ranks in the top 5 in defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

Neither Dolphin running back is worth much of a look except in deep leagues and then probably then only as a flex option. I wouldn’t use either this week against a Raiders defense allowing just 2.8 yards per carry.

St. Louis Rams At Denver Broncos

Starting QB Sam Bradford would be a gutsy play but could pay off with the Broncos giving up 299 yards passing and 3 passing touchdowns per game. The Broncos currently rank third in points per game given up to the position, but are giving up only 3.5 yards per carry. Where they have struggled is defending against running backs coming out of the backfield. Over the last month the Broncos are giving up 75 yards receiving per game to the position. Receivers Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson and Laurent Robinson are all averaging within one target of each other over the last month, so picking the go to guy is tough, but the Broncos rank 4th in points given up to the position per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Baltimore Ravens

QB Joe Flacco has averaged 261 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game, but has a tough match-up against a Buccaneers defense that is allowing only 220 yards passing and 0.8 passing touchdowns per game.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Derrick Mason – Look for CB Aqib Talib to spend most of the day shadowing Anquan Boldin, giving Mason plenty of space to work.

Philadelphia Eagles At Chicago Bears

Don’t look to the Bears passing game to get you past your Week 12 game with the Eagles ranking in the top 10 in defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver positions. RB Matt Forte makes a decent flex option, but could serve as a No. 2 in deeper leagues with the Eagles giving up the eighth most points per game to opposing running backs.

QB Michael Vick is a must start regardless of match-up, but the Bears have averaged 2.7 interceptions per game. RB LeSean McCoy is averaging 112 offensive yards per game over the last month, but fantasy owners should be leery of his value this week as the Bears are allowing just 2.7 yards per carry.

San Diego Chargers At Indianapolis Colts

Just a word of warning to Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne owners, the Chargers rank in the top 10 in defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver positions over the last month. Nevertheless you start them regardless. RB Joseph Addai’s status is up in the air and the fact that he doesn’t play until Sunday night won’t give owners much of a chance to replace him. However, the Chargers have struggled defending running backs allowing 151 offensive yards and 1.7 total touchdowns per game over the last month. If he plays, Addai is a strong No. 2 running back this week.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Blair White – Austin Collie is out, Pierre Garcon has largely disappointed and White had seven targets and two touchdowns last week.

San Francisco 49ers At Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers offense will have a great chance to rebound after getting shutout last week with the Arizona Cardinals ranking in the top 10 in points given up to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Sleeper Pick…

QB Troy Smith – It is Michigan week and this pick will make 411 Hall of Fame member Jim ‘CFO’ Herbeck happy.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

Week 10 Preview – Match-ups To Know

All stats are based off the last four weeks of the season unless otherwise stated.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons pass defense got some help with the return of CB Dunta Robinson last week. It held QB Josh Freeman to under 200 yards passing, but allowed two touchdown passes. It is currently giving up the second most points to the quarterback position, which makes Joe Flacco a nice match-up. The Falcons are also giving up the most points per game to the wide receivers making Anquan Boldin a strong play this week. One area the Falcons have excelled in is run defense. Currently they rank fourth in defending against opposing running backs allowing zero touchdowns and just 82 yards rushing per game.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

If your quarterback is on a bye this week take a close look at Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Lions have given up the eight most points per game to the position and Fitzpatrick has become a legit top 10 fantasy quarterback. RB Fred Jackson’s could be used as a flex player in deep leagues this week with the Lions giving up the 10th most points to opposing running backs per game and 4.5 yards per carry.

QB Shaun Hill looks to be set to be the team’s starter this week and has a good match-up against the Bills defense giving up two passing touchdowns per game.

Sleeper Pick…

Fitzpatrick – Listing Fitzpatrick as sleeper feels like cheating considering the numbers he has put up since becoming the starter, but he is currently owned in only 37 percent of leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

QB Peyton Manning is a must start regardless of match-up, but it isn’t a great one this week. The Bengals are eighth best in defending against the quarterback position. RB Donald Brown is worth a look as a flex play or low end No. 2 RB in deeper leagues. The Bengals are currently giving up 122 yards rushing, 1.3 rushing touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry to the position per game. The Bengals have also struggled defending the wide receiver position giving up 178 yards receiving and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per game.

Cedric Benson has just one 100 yard rushing game for the season and has found the end zone once over the last five weeks. He has a great match-up this week as the Colts are giving up over five yards per carry over the last month. WR Terrell Owens has been a steady contributor for the Bengals this season, but has a tough match-up against the Colts who are giving up just 150 yards receiving and 0.7 touchdowns per game to the position.

Sleeper Pick…

Brown – His numbers aren’t great, but the match-up is tough to ignore. James

New York Jets At Cleveland Browns

RB Peyton Hillis is quickly turning into a must start for fantasy owners especially in touchdown heavy leagues. He has a tough match-up this week though. The Jets are the  No. 4 team defending against the running back position giving up 74 yards rushing per game. Surprisingly the Jets have given up the sixth most points to opposing quarterbacks per game over the last month. Still, starting Colt McCoy is a risky play.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson’s numbers have taken a dip since the team’s bye-week and with talk of a 50/50 split between him and Shonn Green, that trend should continue this week. The Browns also rank eighth in defending the position allowing just 80 yards rushing, 0.3 rushing touchdowns and 3.5 yards per carry per game to the position.

Houston Texans At Jacksonville Jaguars

The last we saw of QB David Garrard he was throwing for 260 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys. Duplicating those numbers is going to be tough, but he has a great match-up against the Houston Texans. The Texans are currently giving up 254 yards passing and three touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. WR Mike Sims-Walker has a good match-up as well with the Texans giving up 166 yards receiving and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per game.

RB Arian Foster should be in line for another good game against the Jaguars who are giving up 133 yards rushing and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game to the position.

Sleeper Pick…

Garrard – Garrard makes a great play in Eliminator leagues and should be considered a strong bye-week replacement.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

QB Brett Favre had a career high in passing yards last week against the Arizona Cardinals, but has a tough match-up against the Bears who are the fifth best team defending against the quarterback position over the last month.

Tennessee Titans At Miami Dolphins

Looking towards QB Chad Pennington to help with bye week trouble could be a bad move this week. The Titans are the second best team defending against the position and is averaging 2.5 interceptions per game.

QB Vince Young has WR Randy Moss have a strong match-up against a Dolphins defense giving up 259 yards passing and 1.75 touchdowns per game. If Young misses the game (ankle), Kerry Collins (former Moss teammate in Oakland) should be a suitable replacement.  The Dolphins have also have struggled defending against wide receivers giving up 169 yards receiving and 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game to the position.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Nate Washington – Washington voiced his concerns about the Moss pickup, which likely has to do with his role being decreased once Kenny Britt returns. But with Britt out this week, Moss should get the attention from the Dolphins secondary, allowing Washington room to collect fantasy points.

Carolina Panthers At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

About the only area where the Panthers haven’t struggled this season is defending against opposing wide receivers. They are the third best team defending against the position for the season and No. 2 over the last four weeks.

Panthers RB Mike Goodson will get the starting nod and has a strong match-up against a Bucs defense giving up 5.1 yards per carry, 140 yards rushing and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game to the position.

Kansas City Chiefs At Denver Broncos

Brandon Lloyd has five 100 yard receiving games in eight starts this season. It could be tough going 6-for-9 with the Chiefs giving up only 136 yards receiving and 0.8 receiving touchdowns to the position per game.

Both Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles have strong match-ups this week with Denver giving up 136 yards rushing, and 2.7 rushing touchdowns per game to the position. Dwayne Bowe showed that he could put up good numbers even when facing a tough match-up with his 63 yards receiving and one score against the Oakland Raiders. He faces another tough match-up this week with the Broncos giving up 90 yards receiving and 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game.

St. Louis Rams At San Francisco 49ers

You won’t find many strong match-ups for the 49ers this week as the Rams rank in the top 10 defending against opposing quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers.

RB Steven Jackson faces a tough match-up against the Rams who are giving up only 53 yards rushing per game and zero touchdowns. Picking the right play at wide receiver for the Rams is no easy task, but the 49ers have given up 192 yards receiving and one touchdown per game to the position.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Danny Amendola – As mentioned above, picking the right Rams wide receiver isn’t easy.  I’m going with Amendola with a nice match-up.

Dallas Cowboys At New York Giants

QB Eli Manning has a great match-up against a Cowboys defense giving up 243 yards passing and three touchdowns per contest to the position. Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith are also strong plays with the Cowboys secondary giving up 192 yards receiving and two touchdown receptions per game to opposing receivers.

You should probably pass on both the Cowboys running backs this week. The Giants defense has excelled in defending against the position allowing just 43 yards rushing and zero touchdowns per game over the last month.

Sleeper Pick…

QB Jon Kitna – I expect the Cowboys to play a good deal of catch-up against the Giants and if you aren’t punished too much for turnovers, Kitna could make a nice play.

Seattle Seahawks At Arizona Cardinals

If RB Chris Wells can get more than one carry this week it could be a good week for his fantasy owners. The Seahawks have given up 5.1 yards per carry, 138 yards rushing and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game to the position.

It is strong plays across the board for the Seattle Seahawks with the Cardinals ranking in the top 10 in points given up per game to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Sleeper Pick…

I would love to pick a Seahawk to play here and probably should, but I just don’t trust any of them.

New England Patriots At Pittsburgh Steelers

It could be a big day for the Steelers offense as the Patriots rank in the top 10 in points allowed per game to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

If you have bye-week or injury troubles at running back don’t count on the Patriots to help you. The Steelers defense has given up only 48 yards rushing per game and just one rushing touchdown over the last month.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Mike Wallace – Hines Ward leads the team in targets, but Wallace’s has the big play ability.

Philadelphia Eagles At Washington Redskins

RB Ryan Torain looks like he will get the start for the Redskins this week, but faces a tough match-up with the Eagles giving up only 66 yards rushing and 0.7 touchdowns per game to the position. WR Santana Moss has a nice match-up against an Eagles secondary giving up 205 yards receiving and one touchdown reception per game to the position.

QB Michael Vick is a good bet against the Redskins who are giving up 267 yards passing and 1.7 touchdowns per game. Both WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin should be nice plays with the Redskins giving up 200 yards receiving and two touchdown receptions per contest.

Sleeper Pick…

WR Anthony Armstrong – With Moss getting most of the attention and a good match-up, Armstrong could be in for a nice day.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

By Adam Helbling:

New York Jets at Detroit Lions

WR Calvin Johnson has posted back-to-back 100 yard receiving games and has scored at least a touchdown in four straight. He is a must start regardless of match-up. Matthew Stafford is a tougher call. With Johnson in the line-up the possibility always exists for him to put up big numbers, but facing the Jets defense isn’t an enviable match-up.

If you are hurting at quarterback or wide receiver this week due to byes or injuries save the Jets roster towards the end of you search. The Lions rank in the top 10 defending against both positions over the last four weeks. LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene could bounce back from a disappointing Week 8 as the Lions have given up over 100 yards rushing and one touchdown per game to opposing running backs. LT should be considered a No. 2 running back and Greene as a flex option in deep leagues.

Sleeper Pick…
WR Jerricho Cotchery – Cotchery was targeted 14 times last week. The next most targeted wide receiver for the Jets was Santonio Holmes with six. Counting on him in standard leagues is a bit risky, but he could make a nice one week fill-in in PPR leagues.

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills

The Bears have done well defending against quarterbacks and wide receivers over the last month ranking in the top 10 in defending against both.

Sleeper Pick…
TE Greg Olson – No team has given up more points to the tight end position than the Buffalo Bills. The Bears don’t use Olson a lot and Mike Martz’s offense often ignores the position, but it is a good match-up to exploit.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings rank third in points given up to opposing running backs over the last month (102 yards rushing, 1.3 touchdowns per game). RB Chris Wells is getting the bulk of the carries for the team and makes a low end No. 2 running back this week.

Sleeper Pick…
RB Tim Hightower – Hightower only had one rush and one reception last week, but fantasy owners should take note that the Vikings have given up the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing running backs over the last month. Another risky pick with his role on the team still being sorted out and outside of PPR leagues I wouldn’t consider playing him.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns

If you play in one of those funky eliminator leagues where you can only start a player once per season and feel like gambling, the Patriots are giving up over 300 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Sleeper Pick…
QB Colt McCoy – If McCoy comes through with a big game, I can brag about it for the rest of the season. Both Delhomme and Wallace are going to try and practice this week so it might not be McCoy’s gig.

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans

I’m not sold on Matt Schaub being an automatic start anymore, especially against a Chargers defense that ranks in the top 10 defending against both quarterbacks and wide receiver. He should probably still be considered a No. 1 quarterback this week, but only because of the number of bye-week teams.

It should be a good day offensively for the Chargers. The Texans rank in the top 10 in points given up to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers.

Sleeper Pick…
RB Ryan Mathews – Mathews’ 15 carries last week were his most since coming back from injury. It was also his first week being able to participate in all the team’s practices. As long as he stays healthy his role and value should expand.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

RB Michael Turner should be at the top of your RB list this week against a Buccaneers offense allowing 5.5 yards per carry.

The Falcons have struggled defending against the pass over the last month giving up over 300 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest giving QB Josh Freeman a great match-up. Fantasy owners should take note, however, that CB Dunta Robinson is expected to return to the Falcons secondary after missing two games with an injured knee. Before RB LeGarrette Blount owners get carried away with his 120 yards rushing and two touchdown performance last week, they should keep in mind that the Falcons have only given up just 75 yards rushing per game and 3.2 yards per carry over the last month.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

You can start both QB Joe Flacco and WR Anquan Boldin with plenty of confidence this week. The Dolphins rank sixth in points given up to both positions. While the Dolphins have struggled against the pass, they have done well against the run allowing just 70 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

The Ravens defense hasn’t been as dominating this season as in years past, especially over the last month. During this period of time they have given up 329 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. Opposing wide receivers have done just as well averaging 253 yards receiving and 2.3 touchdowns per game. QB Chad Henne and WR Brandon Marshall both should be considered as strong plays this week. RB Ronnie Brown has been outperformed by Ricky Williams for most of the season, but neither has much value this week. The Ravens rank 8th defending against opposing running backs.

Sleeper Pick…
WR Davone Bess – Last week was the first in three weeks that Bess didn’t score a touchdown, but he still had seven receptions for 53 yards. Bess makes a fine No. 3 WR in PPR formats.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Other than WR Steve Smith avoid all Carolina Panthers, especially with the Saints ranking in the top 10 defending against quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers.

QB Drew Brees is a must start regardless of match-up, but it should be noted that the Panthers are the league’s best defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver position.

Sleeper Pick…
WR Lance Moore – Until Reggie Bush returns Moore still holds value.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have clearly played better at home than on the road, and the Giants have given up 245 yards passing and 1.67 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks, but QB Matt Hasselbeck is out with a concussion and Charlie Whitehurst will be making his first career starter against a fierce pass-rush. Fantasy owners should be leery starting RB Marshawn Lynch considering his performance last week and the fact that the Giants have given up just 35 yards rushing and 2.4 yards per carry over the last month.

The Giants will look to get both RB Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs plenty of carries with the Seahawks allowing 5.5 yards per carry.

Sleeper Pick…
Jacobs – A good deal of Jacobs’s value rest on if he can find the end zone. He has scored five touchdowns over the last four weeks and is a good bet for a sixth.

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles

The Colts rank in the top five in defending against both opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers over the last month. QB Michael Vick is back practicing with the team and is expected to be the teams starter, but could have some rust with the long lay-off and faces a tough match-up. Andy Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but LeSean McCoy has a great match-up against a Colts defense giving up over five yards per carry over the last month.

It could be a big game for QB Peyton Manning owners with the Eagles giving up 278 yards passing and 2.7 passing touchdown per game to the position. The Colts receivers should fare well also with the Eagles giving up the third most points to the position per game over the last month. Looking towards the Colts at RB to help you get through the bye week or injuries might not be a wise choice. The Eagles are giving up only 65 yards rushing and 3.1 yards per game to the position over the last month and RB Donald Brown is the only healthy option for the Colts.

Sleeper Pick…
TE Jacob Tamme – He was targeted nine times on Monday night and finished with 67 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

WR Dwayne Bowe has scored five touchdowns over his last three games, but has had strong match-ups in each of those contests. He faces the Raiders this week who are eighth defending against the wide receiver position allowing an average of just eight receptions per game to the position.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

It was a rough week for QB Aaron Rodgers and his owners as he threw for just 170 yards and zero touchdowns. He should bounce back against a Cowboys secondary who is giving up 214 yards passing and 2.8 passing touchdowns per game. The Cowboys are also giving up the fifth most points per game to the wide receiver position. WR Greg Jennings figures to have a solid week.

The Packers have had at least two interceptions in two straight contests and QB Jon Kitna threw four last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Packers rank seventh in defending the quarterback position making it a good candidate for a strong start.

Sleeper Pick…
WR Dez Bryant – Bryant had 10 targets last week, including two in the red zone. As weak as the Cowboys have been on defense the offense could be playing from behind a good majority of the game and lean on the passing game to catch up.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers have struggled defending against opposing quarterbacks over the last month. During this period of time they have given up 281 yards passing yards per game. However Pittsburgh is one of the league’s best in defending against running backs. Over the last month they have given up just 2.7 yards per carry.

RB Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t had a 100 yard game since Week 3 averaging just 3.4 yards per carry over the last month. With the Bengals giving up 122 yards rushing, 4.9 yards per carry and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game he could get back on track. The Bengals secondary has been banged up over the last month and is currently giving up the fourth most points to opposing receivers making Mike Wallace and Hines Ward nice plays this week.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

Week 6 Preview

by Adam Helbling

A quick preview of this week’s set of games. Not everything is covered, but we have tried to hit on the key stats you should know in each match-up. Good luck this week.

Miami Dolphins At Green Bay Packers

Don’t look for either R. Brown or R. Williams to have particularly strong games this week. Over the last month the Packers have been one of the best in defending against the run. During this period of time they have given up just 64 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.

You might have thought that the loss of J. Finley would have meant an increase in production, or at least targets, for G. Jennings. You would be wrong. Jennings actually had less targets last week (5) than he was averaging entering the game (6.75). While there is certainly time left in the season and Jennings has the skill to produce big numbers any given week, the reality is that he isn’t a No. 1 wide receiver at this point.

Sleeper Pick – James Jones

Jones was the guy picking up the lost Finley targets finishing the game with 8 targets, two of which were in the red zone.

Cleveland Browns At Pittsburgh Steelers

The Browns are looking at C. McCoy as their possible Week 6 starter and could be without P. Hillis. Avoid all Browns and put the Steelers at the top of your defensive rankings.

Cleveland hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown over the last month of the season, but they have given up 4.7 yards per carry and 118 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Count Mendenhall as a must start this week.

Sleeper Pick – Mike Wallace

With the return of B. Roethlisberger the Steelers will have a quarterback that can consistently stretch the field.

Detroit Lions At New York Giants

Shaun Hill has filled in admirably for the injured Matthew Stafford. I don’t think that continues this week with a Giants secondary giving up only 171 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Calvin Johnson is a must start if you own him, but lower your expectations this week against a strong Giants secondary.

The Lions are giving up over five yards per carry to opposing running backs over the last month. Ahmad Bradshaw is a strong No. 2 running back and Brandon Jacobs is nice option in deeper leagues or as a flex. As bad as the Lions are against the run, I don’t see the Giants worrying too much about throwing the ball and would lower the value of all those involved in the passing game.

Sleeper Pick – Brandon Jacobs

I think the sneaks a touchdown this week against a woeful Lions rush defense.

Seattle Seahawks At Chicago Bears

The Seahawks have given up an average of 350 yards passing and two touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last month making Cutler a No. 1 quarterback this week. As well, no team has given up more yards per game to opposing wide receivers than the Seahawks.

Sleeper Pick – Johnny Knox

There doesn’t appear to be the a clear cut No. 1 at wide receiver for the Bears, but Knox has been the most consistent.

New Orleans Saints At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Figuring out who is going to get the bulk of the carries for the Bucs is no easy task, but whoever it is has a nice match-up with the Saints giving up 110 yards rushing and one touchdown per game over the last month to opposing running backs. No team in the NFL has done better in limiting production at the wide receiver than the Saints giving up only 88 yards receiving per game during the same period of time.

You will likely have to follow the news all the way to kick-off, but whoever starts at running back for the Saints has a good chance to have a strong game. Over the last month of the season the Bucs have given up an average of 147 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.

Sleeper Pick – Chris Ivory

Ivory got the start last week and could again if Thomas misses another week despite the signing of Julius Jones.

Atlanta Falcons At Philadelphia Eagles

Big numbers for any of the Eagles might be hard to come by this week against the Falcons defense. Over the last month they rank 7th defending against quarterbacks, 11th against running backs and 10th against wide receivers.

The Eagles have struggled in limiting production from opposing running backs giving up over 150 yards of offense to the position per game. However, it should be noted that 57 of those yards come from receptions. The Falcons have worked Turner into the passing game more this season, but it still isn’t an area he excels at. Owners will also want to lower expectations for Roddy White as the Eagles are one of only three teams that are giving up fewer than 100 yards receiving per game to the wide receiver position.

Sleeper Pick – Falcons Defense

As a unit they are averaging nearly three turnovers per game over the last month.

Kansas City Chiefs At Houston Texans

The Chiefs rank 8th defending against opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks. With the number of injuries the Texans have at their receiving positions it might be wise to see what you have on your bench. While we would never recommend benching Andre Johnson, the Chiefs rank 9th in defending the wide receiver position so lowered expectations are called for.

Matt Cassel might be worth a look for those with bye-week trouble. The Texans have been awful defending against the pass giving up 320 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per contest over the last month.

Sleeper Pick – Dwayne Bowe

He might end up with more drops than receptions, but the Texans are giving up 185 yards receiving and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position over the last month.

Baltimore Ravens At New England Patriots

The Patriots offense will face a tough test in their first game without Randy Moss a part of the offense. The Ravens rank 6th in defending against the quarterback position and 10th in defending against the running back position over the last month of the season. Tom Brady and Wes Welker remain must starts, but waiting to see how the rest of the offense shakes out might be a wise path for fantasy owners.

Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin could be in line for strong games this week as the Patriots defense struggles against the pass. The Patriots defense ranks in the top 10 in points given up per game to the quarterback and wider receiver position over the last four weeks of the season.

Sleeper Pick – Derrick Mason

I would look for the Patriots to try and take Boldin out of the game by focusing their coverage on him giving Mason plenty of room to work.

San Diego Chargers At St. Louis Rams

Passing on the Rams this week could be a smart move for their fantasy owners. Over the last month of the season the Chargers rank in the top five defending against quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs.

Word is that the Chargers plan on expanding Mathews role in the offense this week against the Rams. Even with his expanded role, Tolbert will get carries and eat away at Mathews value. The Rams have also done well defending against the running back position giving up only 99 yards rushing and zero touchdowns per game over the last four contests.

Sleeper Pick – Danny Amendola

The Rams could be playing a significant portion of this game in catch-up mode and with Mark Clayton out of the line-up Danny Amendola looks to be in line to get the most looks. Last week he had 19 targets.

New York Jets At Denver Broncos

As good as the Jets defense is, they have struggled defending against the pass over the last four games of the season. During this period of time they rank 6th and 3rd respectively in points given up to the quarterback and wide receiver position. Orton’s 314 yards passing and two touchdowns against the Ravens last week proved that he can put up strong numbers against a good defense.

Mark Sanchez certainly has enough weapons in the passing game, especially with the addition of Santonio Holmes back from suspension to produce solid numbers. He has a nice match-up against the Broncos who are giving up 232 yards passing and 2.25 touchdowns per game over the last month to opposing quarterbacks.

Sleeper Pick – Jerricho Cotchery

Cotchery is likely to be the forgotten man with Holmes back in the mix at wide receiver. However, he tied Holmes in targets last week against the Vikings with nine. I would only look towards Cotchery in deep PPR leagues.

Oakland Raiders At San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore has a nice match-up against the Raiders who are giving up five yard per carry and 129 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.

With McFadden looking like he might miss another week of action for the Raiders, Michael Bush should be in line for another productive week at running back. Over the last four months the 49ers have given up 176 offensive yards per game to opposing running backs.

Sleeper Pick – None

Dallas Cowboys At Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have done well defending against the pass having not allowed an opposing quarterback to pass the 300 yard passing mark all season. However, the secondary is currently struggling with a fairly long list of injuries most notably Cedric Griffin who is out for the season.

Sleeper Pick – None

Indianapolis Colts At Washington Redskins

The Redskins have had one of the worst passing defenses so far this season giving up 298 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks. Peyton Manning struggled against the Chiefs, but should be set-up for a strong game this week. Bolstering Manning’s chances this week is Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon both returning to practice this Thursday. The Redskins run defense has given up 4.5 yards per carry this season, but has only given up two rushing touchdowns. With the Colts health at running back in question, no Colts running back should be considered as more than a weak No. 2 running back this week.

The weak spot in the Colts defense has been their run defense. As a unit they are giving up 4.8 yards per carry, 142 yards rushing and 1 rushing touchdown per game. With Ryan Torain being one of the few workhorse running backs he makes a nice No. 2 running back this week.

Sleeper Pick – Anthony Armstrong

You will have to be towards the end of your options to take a look at Armstrong, but he had over 80 yards receiving with a touchdown last week and could find himself as a the full-time start instead of just poaching targets.

Tennessee Titans At Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars secondary rank in the bottom four in defending against the pass so far this season. As a unit they have given up 282 yards passing and over two passing touchdowns per game making Vince Young a decent in option in deeper leagues.

While the Titans secondary hasn’t struggled as bad as the Jaguars have against the pass, they are giving up the sixth most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The do rank in the bottom half of the league in passing TDs allowed negating some of the value that David Garrard might otherwise have in this match-up. With the number of injuries to MJD piling up and the Titans defense giving up just one rushing touchdown so far this year, approach using MJD with care.

Sleeper Pick – Kenny Britt

Britt has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games.