The Hanukkah Spectacular

At this time last year 411fantasy was a one-third Jewish. Due to structural changes Mr. Conn is pleased to announce that we are now half Jewish. This, of course, has me (Helbling) worried about my job security as I am sure that there is some federal grant money someplace that Jewish fantasy football sits are eligible for. Regardless, we here at 411fantasy wish all the goy and non-goy a happy festival of lights.

411 All-Bupkes Team

If you made the playoffs with any of the following players it wasn’t likely because of them, but in spite of them. As it is the holiday season and we are a forgiving lot, players who suffered serious injuries have been given a pass (Charles, Jamal). The rest of this sorry lot deserve all the scorn and ridicule we can heap at them.

Quarterback

San Diego Chargers Philip Rivers – Rivers is only a handful of points out of a top five place in scoring in most standard leagues since week 8, but if Rivers was your No. 1 quarterback this season your season was probably already over by then. Over the first eight weeks of the season Rivers led the league in INTs with 11 and had just as many touchdown passes as Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman (7). As the fourth quarterback taken in most leagues, this just doesn’t cut it.

Running Back

Tennessee Titans Chris Johnson – For the season Johnson has 130 more touches than New Orleans Saints Running Back Darren Sproles and is being outscored by Sproles by 8 points in ESPN standard scoring. Johnson was the fourth player taken in most drafts while Sproles was the 44th running back taken in most leagues. Need we say more? It does hurt to put Johnson on this list though as he is kind of a hero of mine. Sign a big fat contract that sets you up for life and then blame everybody else around you for your ineptness. I plan on doing the same thing here at 411 once the major sponsors come calling as Mr. Conn keeps promising they will.

Wide Receiver

Philadelphia Eagles DeSean Jackson – Jackson has pulled the reverse Chris Johnson by doing next to nothing will trying to get a big contract. Jackson has just two 100-yard receiving games for the season, his last one being Week 4, and has just one touchdown over the last eight weeks. Jackson currently has the same number of fantasy points as Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Early Doucet.

Tight End

Green Bay Packers Jermichael Finley – It might be a stretch to put Finely on this list as he is currently scoring as a top five tight end in most leagues. Finley earns a spot on this board due in large part to his ADP. Finley was a mid-fourth round pick in most leagues. Considering New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker was taken in the same places, owners who selected Finely over Welker missed out on a good deal of value. When you add that New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, who has played in four less games and went undrafted in most leagues, is just two points behind Finley in scoring you can’t be happy with your Finley selection.

The Great Eight

We celebrate these eight players, otherwise known as the Maccabees, who are a cut above the rest in recognition of Hannukkah’s eight great nights.

Quarterbacks

Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers – Of the top five quarterback, according to ESPN standard scoring, Rodgers has the fewest passing attempts but is still outscoring the No. 2 quarterback by 30 points. Rodgers’ worst fantasy week was Week 14 where he threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns. If you drafted Rodgers, there is a good chance you not only made your league’s playoffs, but are looking at a possible championship.

Carolina Panthers Cam Newton – Newton, the No. 2 scoring quarterback according to ESPN, only has 17 touchdown passes. However, his 13 rushing touchdowns would rank him second among running backs. His 3,722 yards passing and 609 yards rushing shouldn’t be ignored either. As the 24th quarterback taken off most draft boards, Newton might hold the most fantasy value of any player this year.

Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford – Stafford has averaged 236 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game so far this season. Stafford is a top five scoring quarterback that was the 11th quarterback taken in most leagues.

Running Backs

Philadelphia Eagles LeSean McCoy – McCoy currently leads the league in touchdowns scored and is second in rushing yards. The Eagles running back has scored two touchdowns in six games and has just one contest where he failed to find the end zone.

Buffalo Bills Fred Jackson -  Prior to being injured in Week 11 Jackson was the No. 2 scoring running back in fantasy football. Over the first 10 weeks of the season the Bills back was averaging 145 total offensive yards per game and had a 5.6 yards per carry average. While he isn’t helping any owners during their playoff runs, he is likely a pretty big reason they got there to begin with.

Wide Receivers

Carolina Panthers Steve Smith – There were 34 wide receivers who were taken before Steve Smith in most leagues. At this point in the season, only two wide receivers are currently out scoring him. Smith has averaged 93 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game with a rookie quarterback and with one of the weakest wide receiving corps in the league.

New York Giants Victor Cruz – Cruz ranked 44th in targets over the first eight weeks of the season as he started out the year as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver and an afterthought in the Giants passing game. Since Week 9, Cruz ranks third in targets amongst wide recievers. With Cruz currently tied for fifth in scoring at the position, it would be interesting to see his totals if he had been targeted as often in the first eight weeks as he has been since.

Tight Ends

New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski – If you are looking for a fantasy player of the year, look no further than Gronkowski. Gronkowski has 42 more points than the No. 2 tight end and among wide receivers only Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson has scored more. Not too shabby for an early ninth round pick.

411’s Crystal Ball

If the only leagues you have ever participated in are redraft leagues do yourself a favor and make playing in a keeper or dynasty league a top priority for next season. Nothing against redraft leagues, we play in several ourselves, but the true test of a fantasy owner’s skills isn’t just drafting for the current season but also for the seasons to come. The following three players are for dynasty or keeper league owners looking to strengthen their teams next season. We liken these players to the oil in the menorah that lasted eight days, instead of its projected one.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown – Few people had a bigger man crush on Mike Wallace than myself during the preseason. In fact, I predicted Wallace would end the season as a top five fantasy wide receiver (he is currently fifth). I still am pretty high on Wallace, but if I drafted today I would pick Antonio Brown first. It wasn’t until Week 7 that Brown asserted himself as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver, but since then he leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. The two players will cut into each others value, but I think both are great options as low end No. 1 wide receivers.

Minnesota Vikings Wide Receiver Percy Harvin -Migraines and poor play calling have stalled Harvin’s pro career and fantasy value. During the early part of 2011 there were several games were Harvin appeared in less than 50 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. However, over the last eight weeks of the season Harvin currently ranks third in scoring at his position. The best stat that Harvin has going for him over the last nine weeks is that he is averaging 10 touches per game. Next on that list is Wes Welker with seven.

Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Matt Ryan – Ryan’s name is always going to get lost in the shuffle of top fantasy quarterbacks and for good reason, he isn’t one. However, he is a consistent top 10 scorer that will seldom post a goose-egg. Give Ryan and rookie wide receiver Julio Jones a full offseason to work with each other and we see Ryan’s numbers improving. There are certainly better quarterback prospects out there, but you will have a hard time find a top 10 fantasy quarterback that you can get cheaper than Ryan.

For the record, we had Ryan Matthews in this section last year who is currently the No. 8 fantasy running back.

Four Things To Appreciate During Hanukkah We Can All Appreciate

As anybody who has bothered to read my Tuesday Hangovers can attest to this – I’m a pretty grumpy guy. My parents tell me that I was sitting on our front porch yelling at the kids to get off the damned yard when I was eight. As much as I love the NFL and fantasy football, there are a lot of things that drive me nuts. None reviewable plays on helmet-to-helmet contact. Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow fans. Norv Turner. The Worthington Area Fantasy Football League…. seriously, your league scoring is stupid. Non-skimpy NFL Cheerleader outfits. Tim Tebow. Mario Manningham screwing me in a lot of leagues this year. Mike Shanahan. Coaches who abandon the run when they go down by a field goal and Tim Tebow….. Conversely, here are five things I love about the 2011 NFL season and this year in fantasy football.

No. 5

Fat guys refusing to be tackled.

No. 4

Brett Keisel’s beard. This is a repeat from last year, but as long as Keisel grows it I’ll keep putting it on here.

No. 3
Daily/Weekly Fantasy football. I just started playing last year, but I’m hooked. If you are a fantasy fan and not playing in any of the Daily/Weekly leagues you are seriously missing out.

No. 2

NFL eye candy.

No. 1

Brett Favre stayed retired.

In closing, we give a shout out to Mr. Conn’s bretheren around the league… So here’s to you,

Greg Camarillo – Minnesota Vikings – WR

Julian Edelman - New England Patriots – WR

Antonio Garay – San Diego Chargers – DT

Adam Goldberg – St. Louis Rams – T/G

Kyle Kosier – Dallas Cowboys – G

Taylor Mays – San Francisco 49ers – SS

Igor Olshansky – Dallas Cowboys – DT

Adam Podlesh – Jacksonville Jaguars – K

Sage Rosenfels – New York Giants- QB

Geoff Schwartz – Carolina Panthers – G

Happy Hanukkah to all and to all a good yom tov!

Tuesday Hangover

All Tebow All The Time

Apparently a memo was sent out late Sunday night that said all sportswriters and pundits must do nothing but talk/write about Tim Tebow today. I must not be on the mailing list because I didn’t get it , but how can you not write about the guy. Tebow’s 59-yard field goal to send this weekend’s game to overtime looked like it would have been good from 69. Tebow’s 51-yard field goal to win the game was about as clutch as it gets. Who can’t be impressed with Tebow after he held perennial All-Pro quarterback Caleb Hanie to just 115 yards passing. With all the talk of Tebow’s fourth quarter heroics, most have overlooked his nine solo tackles (Tebow doesn’t need assists even in his stat column) two sacks and four tackles for loss. Perhaps most impressive was him forcing Marion Barber to run out of bounds so the Bears couldn’t run out the clock and then stripping Barber of the ball in overtime when the Bears were in field goal range. Don’t let anybody tell you any different. This was all Tebow.

Sure those contributions were done by players known as Matt Prater, D.J. Williams and Wesley Woodyard, but before Tebow these players didn’t really care about winning. They didn’t believe. The Broncos 7-1 record over the last eight weeks is based solely on Tebow’s erratic passing and will to win. Everybody knows that talent on the field has little to do with the outcome of a game when one player really, really wants to win. Every pre-game show should ignore the x’s and o’s and just tell us on a scale of 1-10 how badly each team wants to win. I’ve even decided to adopt this winning philosophy in my professional life. Prior to Tebow I always wanted to win a Pulitzer, now I really, really want to win a Pulitzer so I figure I am now a lock to win one. My mom is going to be so proud of me.

Snark aside, I’m not up for a debate on what type of quarterback Tim Tebow will be two or three years for now. I’ll leave that to others, but Tebowmania needs a heavy dose of reality. Just three of Tebow’s wins have come against teams with winning records and two of those teams (Chicago and Oakland) were without not just their No. 1 quarterback but their No. 1 running back as well. Tebow’s passer rating in the first three quarters is lower than Blaine Gabbert and Curtis Painter. While the Broncos are 7-1 since Tebow was inserted into the line-up the Broncos have outscored their opponents only 164-162 and those opponents have a combined record of 39-52. Yes, the Broncos are winning, but they are struggling to win against some pretty weak teams. The Broncos defense, running game and special teams are keeping the Broncos in the game despite Tebow. That should be the story, but in a league built around quarterbacks and the passing game we get Tebow and his will to win and failure to quit. If only somebody had told Jack Del Rio, Toddy Haley and Tony Sparano about this magical elixir they might not spend this Christmas looking for jobs.

Oh and for all you Tebow fans out there, I don’t hate him. I don’t dislike him because he is a Christian and wants to tell me about it every time a camera is within the same zip code. I hate the distortion that is “Tebowmania” and those who feed off of it.

Oakland Raiders Quarterback Carson Palmer – We’ve recommended Palmer as a strong play the last two weeks and he has come through by averaging 231 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. You won’t find us recommending him this week against a Bears defense that ranks in the top 10 defending against opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks.

Buffalo Bills Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick – After a strong start to the season Fitzpatrick has struggled over the last month averaging 202 yards passing and 1 passing touchdown per game. If those stats aren’t enough to pass on him consider that he faces a Jets defense giving up just 98 yards passing and 0.33 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks during the same period of time.

Minnesota Vikings Running Back Toby Gerhart – Early reports are that Adrian Peterson is expected to miss at least one game after suffering an ankle injury this week. While Gerhart is likely to be one of the top targets for pickup this week owners should hold off putting him in their lineup with the Falcons giving up the fewest points to opposing running backs over the last month.

Dallas Cowboys Running Back DeMarco Murray – Murray has been an elite running back since replacing Felix Jones in the Cowboys starting lineup. Over the last month he has averaged 105 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. The Dolphins haven’t given up a touchdown to opposing running backs and are giving up only 56 yards rushing per game to opposing running back over their last four games. Murray should still be in your starting lineup, but don’t count on him hitting his averages.

Houston Texans Wide Receiver Andre Johnson – All reports are that Johnson is set to return to the Texans starting lineup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Matt Leinart replacing Matt Schaub and the Jaguars giving up the second fewest points per game to opposing wide receivers over the last month, consider Johnson a weak play.

New York Jets Wide Receiver Santonio Holmes – With a run first offense, a struggling passing game and a Buffalo Bills defense giving up only 113 yards passing and 1.3 receiving touchdowns per game over the last month be sure to check to see if you have better options on your roster.

Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Matt Ryan – Matt Ryan ranks just outside the top 10 in scoring at the quarterback position over the last month. With the Vikings giving up 247 yards passing and 2.67 passing touchdowns per game during the same period of time look for a top 10 day from Ryan this week.

Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow – Despite averaging just 147 yards passing per game over the last four weeks, Tebow’s ability to run the ball has made him a viable fantasy starter. During this period of time Tebow has averaged 73 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Tebow should see a bump in his passing numbers against a Chargers defense giving up 273 yards passing per game and if he can maintain his rushing average it could result in a big day for Tebow fans and owners.

Indianapolis Colts Running Backs Joseph Addai/Donald Brown – Whoever starts for the Colts this week will face a Panthers defense giving up over five yards per carry, 143 yards rushing and 1.33 rushing touchdowns per game over the last month. Fantasy owners are likely to have to wait until active/inactive lists are released on Sunday, but whoever starts has a great matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals Running Back Cedric Benson – Benson has made a decent flex play in deeper leagues over the last month of the season. During this period of time he has average 58 yards rushing and 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game. Benson makes a decent spot start this week as a low end No. 2 running back against a Browns defense giving up 162 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game over the last four weeks.

Detroit Lions Wide Receiver Nate Burleson – Burleson has reemerged as the No. 2 option in the Lions passing game averaging 73 yards passing and 0.5 touchdowns per game over the last two weeks. With the Packers giving up the fourth most points to opposing wide receivers over the last month, Burleson is a good bet to turn in another productive week.

New York Giants Wide Receivers – As a unit the Giants wide receiving corps have averaged the third most fantasy points per game over the last month of the season. If you happen to own Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham or Victor Cruz they all make nice plays against a a Saints defense giving up 180 yards receiving per game to opposing wide receivers during the same period of time.

Tuesday Hangover

Don’t Be Like The Bears/Texans

With parity reigning supreme in the NFL each teams playoff stock can rise and fall in the blink of an eye. The Chicago Bears are in the thick of things for a wildcard ticket in the NFC. After Jay Cutler suffered a thumb injury this weekend the Bears will have to lean on Caleb Hanie and/or Nathan Enderle until at least Week 16 or 17. The Houston Texans, in the running for a first round playoff bye and home field advantage, will now have to count on Matt Leinart to carry their team for the rest of the season. The lesson here for fantasy owners is a pretty simple one. Don’t get caught counting on a Leinart or Hanie. If you own Arian Foster look to pick up Ben Tate. If you own Aaron Rodgers make sure that should he get injured you are not forced to count on guys like Matt Moore or Joe Flacco. After 11 Weeks you want to make sure that you season doesn’t go up in smoke because you lost one player. Being proactive and shoring up your depth now is going to be much cheaper than trying to do so after your stud goes down. This doesn’t mean you should mortgage everything for depth, but giving up a No. 3 wide receiver for Ben Tate if you are a Foster owner is pretty cheap insurance.

As If I Needed Another Reason To Love Aaron Rodgers

I have no problem admitting to having an Aaron Rodgers man crush. Who wouldn’t have one if you had him on as many teams as I do this season? I love him so much I even laugh at his pathetically bad State Farm commercials. According to ESPN standard scoring Rodgers worst week was Week 3 against the Chicago Bears when he threw for just 297 yards and three scores. However, the things that Rodgers says off the field, or while being interviewed on it, only makes my man crush stronger.

“I just think it just goes to the point that you can’t take a whole lot of what those people say too personally because they’re shock experts on ESPN and NFL Network. A lot of them are just going for the shock value of what they’re saying, as is typified by that guy on ESPN, I don’t want to even say his name. He works for “First Take”…All he does is say things that are so ridiculous just for the shock value.”

That ‘guy on ESPN’ Rodgers is referring to is one Skip Bayless and if you have ever watched the show “First Take” you know just what Rodgers is talking about. It isn’t just Skip Bayless and shock comments that make so many of ESPN’s studio shows a struggle to watch. It is also the over the top and worthless analysis. Watch any Monday Night Football game and you are likely to hear of at least one pass or run a weel that is the greatest pass or run that Jon Gruden has ever seen. Take Herm Edwards who can at times make Stephen A. Smith seem sedate. ESPN still has first class sports coverage, a number of guys that to first rate work (see Karabell, Eric and Schefter, Adam), and it would be a dark day should they ever leave the air, but there are times where you can see that they clearly value schtick over content. Of course, I would probably livestream the Sunday Scramble in a clown suit while dancing the polka if it meant more hits so I probably shouldn’t be casting too many stones.

Waiver Wire

Miami Dolphins Quarterback Matt Moore - Moore only had 160 yards passing, but it was the second time in three weeks that he had three touchdown passes in a game. If you are in a two quarterback league or playing in a deep league and have lost your starter to injuyr, Moore is worth a look and currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

Oakland Raiders Carson Palmer – Palmer’s numbers were limited in part to the Raiders getting up big early and coasting for most of the game. Still, thanks to a one-yard touchdown run Palmer finished one point out of the top 10 at his position in ESPN standard scoring. Since taking over as the Raider’s starting quarterback Palmer has averaged 265 yards passing and two touchdown passes per game. Palmer is currently available in nearly half of all league polled.

Detroit Lions Running Back Kevin Smith – Smith will be the hottest pickup of the week after posting 201 total yards and two scores against the Panthers last week. Fantasy owners need to remember who the Lions were playing and not expect a repeat performance, but Smith is worth a pickup in all leagues and formats. He is currently available in all leagues polled.

Detroit Lions Wide Receiver Nate Burleson – Burleson was a popular sleeper pick during the preseason that hasn’t panned out having been an after thought in the team’s passing game for most of the season. Over the last two games he has averaged eight touches and 73 yards rushing per game. Burleson is currently available in 85 percent of leagues polled and should be considered a low end No. 3 wide receiver for deep leagues.

Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Jabar Gaffney – Gaffney’s value will take a hit once Santana Moss returns to the lineup. Until that happens Gaffney is the Redskins No. 1 wide receiver in an offense that will likely be playing a lot of games from behind. He isn’t likely to duplicate his Week 11 performance any time soon (115 rec. 1 TD), but he is worth a look as a low end No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receiver Laurent Robinson – Robinson led the team in targets last week with 11 and has scored five touchdowns over the last four weeks. Once Austin Miles returns to the lineup Robinson’s value is likely to take a hit, but you can’t argue with his production over the last month. Robinson is currently available in half of all leagues.

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receiver Torrey Smith – Smith’s production is likely to be hit or miss, but he showed last week with 165 yards receiving and one touchdown just how high of a fantasy ceiling he has. He is worth stashing if you have the roster spot and worth a spot start depending on matchup. Smith is currently available in half of all leagues polled.

San Francisco 49ers Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree – Crabtree has had at least five receptions and 50 yards receiving in four of his last five games. He isn’t a valuable commodity in standard scoring leagues, but could be a decent No. 3 in PPR leagues. Crabtree is currently available in just under 40 percent of leagues polled.

Tuesday Hangover

The Dolphins Can’t Do Anything Right

Unless Andrew Luck loses his right arm in some freak accident he is going to be the No. 1 draft pick. The consensus among pundits and experts is that he is a quarterback prospect that the NFL hasn’t seen since Peyton Manning. If, for some reason, whoever holds the No. 1 pick next year doesn’t want to take Luck it has been estimated by some that the pick could be trade for as many as three future No. 1 picks. The Dolphins hadn’t done much right this season, entering this week 0-7 and tied for the lead in the ‘Suck For Luck’ sweepstakes. Their season is already a waste. They have a coach that looks like he could be fired any day now. They haven’t won a game at home in nearly a year. Who cares if you go 0-16? Are teams taunting the Lions because they went 0-16 in 2008? If I’m Bill Pollian, the Indianapolis Colts GM, I’m not giving some cheap team poster to the first 1k fans through the gates. I’m giving the first 52 through the gates a number and helmet. Give me 0-16 and Andrew Luck over 1-15 and Matt Barkley any day.

Allow Replay For Helmet To Helmet Contact

I’m all for the penalties for helmet-to-helmet contact. Anybody who thinks otherwise needs to read a bit more about Dave Duerson. The problem that I do have is that the calls are too inconsistent. The officials have been told to err on the side of caution which means a number of flags on plays where there was no helmet-to-helmet contact. There have also been a number of plays where there was clear helmet-to-helmet contact with no flag thrown. Look no further than Ray Lewis’s hit on Hines Ward this week. Deep in Ravens territory, Ray Lewis stopped Hines Ward just short of a first down with a vicious hit. With fourth and one to go the Steelers were going for it, or at least going to attempt to draw the Ravens offsides. John Harbaugh challenged the play before the snap and replay overturned the call on the field (a completion) forcing a Steelers field goal. Of course replay also clearly showed helmet-to-helmet contact, which completion or not should have resulted in a 15-yard penalty and a Steelers first down. I don’t blame officials for getting calls like this wrong. I blame the NFL for not letting them get it right.

More Tebow

I got an email from a friend who has read my last two Tuesday Hangovers shortly after the Broncos win against the Raiders. He was worried that I would have nothing to write about with Tim Tebow playing ‘lights out’ (his words not mine) against the Raiders and if I was ready to eat some crow. Tebow fans need to settle down. He turned in a great fantasy day, but I watched a lot of that game and I would hardly define his play as ‘lights out’. Carson Palmer’s three INTs and Willis McGahee’s two touchdown runs had a lot more to do with the Broncos winning that game than Tebow did. What Sunday’s game showed is that much like the Dolphins game, if Tebow gets a lot of help the Broncos can win with him. Of course, he still completed less than 50 percent of his passes and if you can find one guy that did that in the HOF or in a Pro Bowl I would be surprised.

Waiver Wire
Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow – Tebow’s play isn’t always going to be pretty, but it can be effective from a fantasy standpoint. In three starts this season, Tebow has turned in two top five scoring performances at his position. With Tebow’s ability to run the ball he always has the potential to turn in big days. He is currently available in just over 30 percent of league’s polled.

Washington Redskins Running Back Roy Helu – Helu is likely to be the hottest waiver wire target this week after totaling 146 offensive yards against a tough 49ers defense last week. Helu only had 10 rushes for 41 yards, but had 14 receptions for 105 yards as John Beck was forced into a lot of check downs. Helu could make a nice No. 2 RB down the stretch run if he can survive the Mike Shanahan running back carousel. He is currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

Dallas Cowboys Wide Receiver Laurent Robinson – Over the last five weeks Robinson has either scored a touchdown or totaled more than 100 yards receiving. Robinson has proven to be an effective producer with limited touches and with Austin Miles reportedly out 2-4 weeks with another hamstring injury, Robinson is line for more targets. Robinson is currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown - Over the last three weeks Brown has averaged 93 yards receiving and scored one touchdown. Those number would be even better had Mike Wallace not cut in front of a would be touchdown pass that was clearly intended for Brown. Regardless, over the last month Brown has become a key part to the Steelers pass first offense. He is currently owned in just 35 percent of leagues polled.

New York Jets Tight End Dustin Keller – Even after missing most of the first half due to injury Keller finished with 64 yards receiving. It marked the third straight week that Keller had move than 50 yards receiving. If you missed out on the top tier tight ends in your draft, Keller is a nice option to have. He is currently available in 35 percent of leagues polled.

Philadelphia Eagles Tight End Brent Celek – After being little more than an afterthought for the first part of the season, Celek has seen his role increase in the team’s passing game. Over the last three weeks Celek has scored two touchdowns and averaged 65 yards receiving per game. Celek is currently available in nearly 90 percent of leagues polled.

Tuesday Hangover

The Hurry Up Is Not For Everyone

I think that we can all agree that the NFL is currently in the Madden era where passing is king and everyone runs some version of the hurry-up offense. Even the Seahawks are doing it. The same Seahawks that rank 31st in yards per game. The same Seahawks that are averaging five offensive penalties per game. The same offense led by Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. Is the hurry-up offense really something that a mistake prone and inefficient offense should be running?

Tebow Time

I know I run the risk of turning Tuesday Hangover into All Tebow All The Time, but I just can’t resist…

It was 38-3 late in the third quarter and the broadcast had just cut to a shot of Matthew Stafford shaking his hand after getting it hit by a Bronco. This led the broadcast crew to question what Stafford was still doing in the game. It is a legitimate question. Stafford is hardly the most durable player to play in the league and the Lions clearly had the game wrapped up. However, the better question is what was Tim Tebow still doing in the game? At that point he was 6-for-20 for 74 yards and had spent most of the day looking even worse than that stat line might suggest. This quote from Michael Silver helps sum up the thoughts of one Lion on Tebows play.

“Can you believe ’15’ ?” one Detroit Lions defended asked after his team’s 45-10 immolation of Tebow and the Denver Broncos. “Come on – that’s embarrassing. I mean, it’s a joke. We knew all week that if we brought any kind of defensive pressure, he could do anything. In the second half it got boring out there. We were like, ‘Come on- that’s your quarterback? Seriously?”

Silver said that he spoke to numerous coaches and front-office folks around the league after the game and the description of Tebow’s play wasn’t too kind.

atrocious, terrible, completely exposed and not even close to ready kept coming up in these conversations.

The Broncos are in a tricky spot. It should be clear to anyone that Tebow is not getting a chance at the starting spot based on the merits of his play, but rather based on the believe from his most hardcore supporters that being a good guy is a key component to quarterback play. I’d be willing to bet that there are a number of guys in the Broncos locker room that have had friends cut from one NFL team or another. I would be willing to bet that a number of those friends were good guys, maybe even better guys than *gasp* Tim Tebow. How many more games can the Broncos send out Tebow when his play clearly doesn’t merit it without causing a good deal of resentment in the locker room.

Coaching Hot Seat
I’m not going to bother with a list, but just say Norv Turner deserves a spot on any one that is made. Turner was supposed to be the guy to get the Chargers over the hump and secure their first Super Bowl victory. Despite playing in a division where the other teams have gone a combined 69-123 from 2007-10 the Chargers struggle early, make the play-offs and then flame out. The window NFL teams have to win a Super Bowl can close quickly and if the Chargers feel it hasn’t shut on them yet, this offseason might be the time to look at a different coach.

Waiver Wire Targets

New England Patriots Running Back Kevin Faulk - In his first game of the season Faulk was the team’s most utilized running back playing in 39 of 58 offensive snaps. Faulk is unlikely to lead the team in carries on a week-to-week basis, but his value as a receiver out of the backfield makes him an interesting flex option in PPR leagues. Faulk is currently available in all leagues polled.

Tennessee Titans Running Back Javon Ringer – Chris Johnson’s contract and the hope he might turn things around are the only two things keeper Ringer from getting a bigger role in the Titans offense. In nearly any other situation Johnson’s 2.8 yard per carry average for the season would have found him on the bench long ago. Look for Ringer to get a bigger workload as long as Johnson struggles. Ringer and Johnson split carries evenly last week with Ringer averaging 4.3 yards per carry and Johnson averaging 2.4. If you have the roster space, stashing Ringer might pay off down the road. Regardless, he is a player to keep a close eye on.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown – The Patriots secondary keyed on taking away the big play this past weekend leaving plenty of space for Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders to work underneath. As a result, Brown led the team with 15 targets finishing with nine receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown. As more teams look to take away Wallace, Brown’s role in the offense could grow. He should be considered a No. 3 receiver and is available in nearly 80 percent of leagues polled.

San Francisco 49ers Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree – Crabtree’s value is going to be limited as long as the 49ers remain a run-first offense. No team has fewer pass attempts than the 49ers, a situation unlikely to change as long as Frank Gore remains healthy. Still, Crabtree has shown to hold value averaging 56 yards receiving per game over the last month. Crabtree should be considered a deep league No. 3 receiver with some upside and is available in nearly half of all leagues polled.

Seattle Seahawks Wide Receiver Doug Baldwin – Baldwin leads all Seahawks wide receivers with 70 yards receiving per game over the last month. With the shaky play at quarterback, Baldwin’s doesn’t have much upside. However, as often as the Seahawks are forced to play from behind Baldwin should have plenty of chances to contribute. He is currently available in nearly 80 percent of leagues polled.

Philadelphia Eagles Tight End Brent Celek – Celek turned in his best performance of the season against the Cowboys totaling seven receptions, 97 yards receiving and one touchdown reception. With the number of weapons in the Eagles offense, Celek is often an afterthought, but with his second straight strong performance could see his role increase. Celek is currently available in just under 95 percent of all leagues.

Tuesday Hangover

We have a tab thingy up at the top of our page for Tuesday Hangover and we get some hits each week on Tuesday Hangover so we might as well have one right? Anyway, each week I will give you some of my thoughts and insights from the past week. I don’t promise it to be informative, entertaining or even all about football, but at least we will have something to fill the tab thingy at the top of our site.

All Tebow All The Time

I apologize for starting this whole thing off with Tebow talk. I’m tired of it and you are probably tired of it, but I have to get in my two cents. Yesterday’s game, according to most pundits, proved that Tim Tebow is an awful NFL quarterback and not even Tim Tebow’s horrible play can prevent Tim Tebow from winning….or something. There won’t be too many games where the Broncos are only going to be down by 15 points with five minutes left after Tebow goes 4-14 for 40 yards. There won’t be too many games where they then score a touchdown, recover an onside kick, score another touchdown, convert a two point conversion, lose the overtime coin toss, recover a fumble at the other team’s 32 and then get a 52 yards field goal. According to advancednflstats.com the probability of the Broncos winning last week’s game when they started at their 20-yard line with 5:23 left in the game was around one percent. The bottom line is that there was a lot more luck in Sunday’s game than Tebow magic.

Run The Damned Ball!

The Lions averaged 5.2 yards per carry against the Falcons last week and finished with just 18 carries between Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams. I get that it is a passing league and that most offensive coordinators call games like a 12-year old playing Madden, but when you are averaging over five yards per carry you should be running the ball more than 18 times.

Promotion/Relegation Would Be The Best Thing To Happen To The NFL

For non-soccer fans a quick explanation…You start with two leagues. League 1 is the league everybody wants to be in. They have the best players, the best facilities and most importantly all the tv money. League 2 is filled with teams that want to be in League 1. At the end of the season the worst team in League 1 is sent to League 2 and the best team in League 2 replaces that team in League 1.

Think the Super Bowl is a high stakes game? Imagine a game were the loser gets sent to the UFL to spend the season playing the Las Vegas Locomotives, Omaha Nighthawks, Sacramento Mountain Lions and the Virginia Destroyers. Do you think teams like the Kansas City Chiefs would leave 32 million dollars in cap space on the table if there was a chance they could miss out on all the tv money the league doles out? Why should the Colts, Rams, Dolphins or whoever ends up with the worst record get rewarded with Andrew Luck and not punished for forcing the rest of us to watch 16 weeks of horrible football? No more stealing franchises. If LA wants a third team in California, start a UFL team and play your way in. Seriously, this is the greatest idea ever. You are welcome.

Waiver Wire Targets For Week 8

Cleveland Browns Running Back Montario Hardesty – Hardesty’s 33 carries for 95 yards was about as ugly to watch as the game itself, but it has earned him more carries even when Peyton Hillis returns to the lineup according to Pat Shurmur. With Hardesty splitting carries I don’t see him as more than a flex play, but an injury to Peyton Hillis could change that quickly. Hardesty is currently available in nearly half of all leagues.

Kansas City Chiefs Running Back Jackie Battle – Battle followed up his 119 yard rushing performance against the Colts with 76 yards rushing against the Raiders last week. Look for Battle to get the bulk of the carries heading forward and to be a nice flex option in most leagues barring injury. He is currently available in nearly half of all leagues.

Dallas Cowboys Running Back DeMarco Murray – Murray is likely to be the hottest pickup this week after rushing for 253 yards and one touchdown last week. Murray won’t be playing the Rams every week, but he will be the primary runner until Felix Jones returns from injury and could even stake a claim to the No. 1 job. He is currently available in nearly 70 percent of leagues polled.

Denver Broncos Wide Receiver Demaryius Thomas – Thomas is only worth a look if you are in a pretty deep league or feel like gambling. He only had three receptions for 27 yards against the Dolphins, but he did find the end zone and was the most targeted receiver for the Broncos last week with 10. If you have the roster space you could get ahead of the curve by picking him up this week and drop him next week if it doesn’t pan out. Thomas is currently available in nearly all leagues.

Oakland Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey – I’ve written about Heyward-Bey three straight weeks now so I’ll make it short and sweet. Heyward-Bey has totaled at least 82 yards receiving for four straight weeks. He is currently available in nearly half of all leagues.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Antonio Brown – Brown had seven receptions and 102 yards receiving against the Cardinals last week. If Hines Ward misses any time with the ankle injury he suffered last week, Brown could make a nice No. 3 wide receiver or flex play. He is currently available in 95 percent of leagues polled.

Strong Plays

The following players, due in large part to their matchup this week, all have the potential to out perform their usual numbers. While betting on them to carry your week is a bad bet they are players to target should you be struggling with injuries or bye weeks and make the difference between a win and a loss.

Quarterbacks

Cleveland Browns Quarterback Colt McCoy -McCoy ranks 22nd in scoring among quarterbacks for season, but if you are suffering with bye week and injury troubles he is worth a look as a one week play. Over the last month the Seahawks have given up 321 yards passing and 1.67 touchdowns per game to the position. Most fantasy owners may view the Browns as a run first offense, but they actually rank 8th in pass attempts for the season meaning McCoy should get the chance to produce. He won’t carry your fantasy team this week, but a top 10 showing at the position wouldn’t be a surprise.

Kansas City Chiefs Matt Cassel – For the season Cassel ranks 29th in scoring at the quarterback position due in large part to averaging 126 yards passing, 0.5 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions per game. His numbers have improved since there including a 257 yards passing and four touchdown performance against the Colts in his last game. He gets an Oakland defense giving up 306 yards passing and 2 touchdown passes per game over the last month this week.

Running Backs

Washington Redskins Running Back Ryan Torain – Torain was one of fantasy footballs most popular waiver wire pickups last week, but disappointed as the Redskins fell behind earlier and Torain finished with just 10 carries and 22 yards rushing. Giving Torain another chance this week could pay off with the Panthers giving up over five yards per carry and 152 yards rushing per contest over the last month. There is some risk playing Torain, Tim Hightower and Roy Helu will cut into his carries, the Redskins could once again fall behind and abandon the pass or Mike Shanahan could decide tomorrow that Torain is the team’s third string running back. Still it is a matchup difficult to ignore. Torain is best used as a flex play, but could be used as a low end No. 2 running back.

Dallas Cowboys Running back DeMarco Murray – Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has yet to name a starter for this week’s game against the Rams, but it was Murray who got the bulk of the touches once Felix Jones went down with a high ankle sprain. Murray has averaged just three yards per carry this season, but faces a Rams defense giving up over five yards per carry and 133 yards rushing per game. Murray should be considered a low end No. 2 running back and a strong play this week.

Wide Receivers

Green Bay Packers Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson – Over the last month of the season the Vikings have given up the fifth most points to the wide receiver position. During this same period of time they have given up 197 yards receiving and 1.25 receiving touchdowns per game to the position. The risk here is that the there are a number of receiving options in the Packers offense and/or the Packers get up big early and play conservatively for most of the game. I’m going with Nelson over guys like James Jones based on a guy call and the fact that he has been the more targeted of the two players.

Oakland Raiders Wide Receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey – The big concern for fantasy owners is how well Carson Palmer plays having just joined the Raiders and getting his first snaps of the season. It certainly is a gamble to play him having with Palmer and Heyward-Bey having spent so little time together, but a gamble that could pay off with the Chiefs giving up 162 yards receiving and 1.33 touchdown receptions to the position over the last month. After a slow start to the season Heyward-Bey has averaged 98 yards receiving per game and scored one touchdown over the last three weeks of the season.

Tight Ends

Cleveland Browns Tight End Ben Watson – Watson has averaged nine targets, 49 yards receiving and 0.33 touchdown receptions over the last month of the season. He has a strong matchup this week against a Seahawks defense giving up 69 yards receiving and 0.67 touchdown receptions per game to the position over the last month.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tight End Kellen Winslow – Winslow has yet to find the end zone of the last month of the season and is averaging just 37 yards receiving per game during the same period of time. A Bears defense that is giving up 74 yards receiving and 1.25 touchdown receptions per game to opposing tight ends should give Winslow the chance to boost those stats.

Week 5 Preview

In forming the weekly preview we use stats from the last six weeks of the regular season based on a standard scoring format unless otherwise noted. When looking at the position breakdown the higher the number the better the match-up.

Ex. No. 1
Team X
QB – 1
In the above example, Team X is currently giving up the least points on average to the quarterback position and thus ranked 1 against QB. Thus a quarterback playing Team X is a weak play.

Ex. No. 2
Team Y
QB – 32
In the above example, Team Y is currently giving up the most points on average to the quarterback position and is therefore ranked 32nd. Thus a quarterback playing Team Y is a strong play.

Please note that just because we list a player as a strong play doesn’t mean he should be in your line-up. Be sure to explore all the options on your roster before instantly plugging in a player we list as a strong play. Likewise for weak plays. We’re not suggesting to put Jason Witten on your bench, but you should curb your expectations. There are also a number of players, such as Aaron Rodgers, who are must starts regardless of their match-up. This is simply a tool to use to gauge match ups for your players versus their opponents.

Tennessee Titans At Pittsburgh Steelers

Titans Vs Position
QB – 4
RB – 14
WR – 3
TE – 11

Steelers Vs Position
QB – 3
RB – 22
WR – 1
TE – 19

You aren’t going to find too many positive match-ups for the Steelers this week. The Titans rank in the top 10 in defending against the quarterback and wide receiver position while allowing just 3.3 yards per carry to the running back position. Add to that, questionable (at best) performance on the offensive line and it is a situation to avoid if you can.

This could be the week that Chris Johnson owners finally get reward for spending a high draft pick on him. Johnson had his first 100-yard rushing game last week, is reportedly back in ‘football shape’ and will get his fullback, Ahmard Hall, back in the line-up with is suspension now over. The Steelers haven’t been a team to run against in years past, but are giving up 4.9 yards per carry to the position over the last four weeks.

Oakland Raiders At Houston Texans

Raiders Vs Position
QB – 27
RB – 31
WR – 22
TE – 5

Texans Vs Position
QB – 12
RB – 12
WR – 21
TE – 6

Tight end is the only position where the Raiders don’t rank in the top 10 in points given up. Start all your Texans this week.

Darren McFadden could be in line for another big week as the Raiders face the Texans this week. McFadden is averaging 117 yards rushing and 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game and faces a Texans defense giving up over five yards per carry to the position.

Kansas City Chiefs At Indianapolis Colts

Chiefs Vs Position
QB – 18
RB – 28
WR – 23
TE – 28

Colts Vs Position
QB – 16
RB – 25
WR – 14
TE – 8

The Chiefs are giving up, on average, the fifth most points to the running back position making Joseph Addai a nice sneaky start for owners. However, the Chiefs are giving up just 3.9 yards per carry suggesting more of a situation of teams getting up on the Chiefs and looking to run out the clock rather than teams looking to run on them.

The Colts rank eight in average points given up to the running back position, but like the Chiefs are giving up under four yard per carry suggesting the same situation as we mentioned with the Chiefs.

Cincinnati Bengals At Jacksonville Jaguars

Bengals Vs Position
QB – 7
RB – 13
WR – 2
TE – 20

Jaguars Vs Position
QB – 14
RB – 10
WR – 5
TE – 31

Outside MJD sit your Jags this week.

A.J. Green has scored a touchdown in two of his four games and has reached the 100 yard mark in two of four as well. With a weak match-up against a Bengals defense giving up the second fewest points to the wide receiver position per game look for better options this week.

Seattle Seahawks At New York Giants

Seahawks Vs Position
QB – 13
RB – 15
WR – 12
TE – 12

Giants Vs Position
QB – 10
RB – 19
WR – 19
TE – 7

Start your Giants as your regularly would this week. The best match-up they have is at the tight end position, but Jake Ballard is averaging only two targets per game.

After Sidney Rice there really aren’t any options on the Seahawks that you want to go with. Consider Rice a high end No. 3 wide receiver.

Arizona Cardinals At Minnesota Vikings

Cardinals Vs Position
QB – 26
RB – 7
WR – 29
TE – 22

Vikings
QB – 19
RB – 23
WR – 17
TE – 15

The Cardinals are the seventh best team defending against the running back position, but are giving up over four yards per game. The Cardinals numbers against the run are due in large part to opposing teams targeting the Cardinals horrible secondary. Speaking of their horrible secondary, if you are struggling with injuries and bye week trouble at quarterback and wide receiver the Vikings might be a roster worth looking at. For the season they are giving up over 300 yards passing to opposing quarterback and over 200 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers per game.

It looks like a good match-up for Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells this week with the Vikings giving up the 9th most points per game to the running back position, but they are allowing just 3.3 yards per carry so approach with caution. The Vikings rank close to the middle of the pack in points given up to the quarterback position, but are giving up over 300 yards passing per game. If you are hurting with injuries and byes, Kevin Kolb could be worth a flier this week.

New Orleans Saints At Carolina Panthers

Saints Vs Position
QB – 25
RB – 20
WR – 20
TE – 17

Panthers Vs Position
QB – 9
RB – 29
WR – 9
TE – 13

Cam Newton is averaging 346 yards passing and 1.25 passing touchdowns per game and should be in line for another strong performance with the Saints giving up the 8th most points per game to the position.

Bump up the value of Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram this week with the Panthers giving up 5.8 yards per carry.

Philadelphia Eagles At Buffalo Bills

Eagles Vs Position
QB – 20
RB  – 32
WR – 8
TE – 24

Bills Vs Position
QB – 24
RB – 24
WR – 16
TE – 26

The Eagles are giving up 5.9 yards per rush, over 200 offensive yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to the running back position. If you own Fred Jackson you could be looking at a very big day.

The Bills defense ranks in the top 10 in points given up both to the quarterback and running back position making Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy strong plays this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers At San Francisco 49ers

Buccaneers Vs Position
QB – 17
RB – 11
WR – 26
TE – 16

49ers Vs Position
QB – 21
RB – 1
WR – 28
TE – 18

If you are hurting for help at wide receiver and willing to gamble the Bucs are giving up 200 yards receiving and one touchdown reception per game to opposing wide receivers. Michael Crabtree is still working his way back from a foot injury, but has averaged seven targets per game over the last two games.

LeGarrette Blount turned in his strongest performance of the season last week with one touchdown, 127 yards rushing and 5.1 yards per carry. Don’t count on a duplicate performance this week against a 49ers defense giving up just 2.9 yards per carry.

New York Jets At New England Patriots

Jets Vs Position
QB – 1
RB – 27
WR – 4
TE – 9

Patriots
QB – 30
RB – 26
WR – 32
TE – 10

Even with the Jets ranking in the top five defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver position Tom Brady and Wes Welker are players you start regardless of match-up. We have advocated picking up Stevan Ridley for two weeks and feel pretty justified after his performance last week. If Danny Woodhead misses time, Ridley’s value could increase this week against a Jets defense giving up 4.7 yards per carry.

As good as the Patriots are on offense, their defense is worse. Give a bump in value to all the Jets skill players.

San Diego Chargers At Denver Broncos

Chargers Vs Position
QB – 5
RB – 5
WR – 10
TE – 27

Broncos Vs Position
QB – 32
RB – 8
WR – 31
TE – 2

Drop the value of your Broncos this week against a Chargers defense ranking in the top 5 defending against both the quarterback and running back positions while ranking in the top 10 defending against the wide receiver position.

The Chargers passing game should be in for a big day against a Broncos secondary giving up the most points to the quarterback position and the second most points to the wide receiver position. If Champ Bailey is able to return this week from injury it will give a boost to the team’s defense, but not enough to scare you away from Philip Rivers and company. The Broncos numbers against the running back position are better on paper than they are on the field as opposing offenses have opted to attack the team through the air rather than the ground. The Broncos are giving up just 88 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs, but are giving up over four yards per carry. In other words, don’t be scared off Ryan Matthews.

Green Bay Packers At Atlanta Falcons

Packers Vs Position
QB – 31
RB – 6
WR – 30
TE – 23

Falcons Vs Position
QB – 23
RB – 21
WR – 24
TE – 4

Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game are in line for a good game against a struggling Packers secondary. Over the first four weeks of the season the Packers are giving up 356 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks and 217 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers. As the Falcons have transitioned to a pass first offense Michael Turner has taken a big hit to his numbers. Turner is averaging just 45 yards rushing per game and the Packers are giving up under four yards per carry. If you have better options at running back, this might be the week to explore them.

It should be another strong day for the Packers offense as the Falcons rank either just in or just out of the top 10 in points given up to opposing quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. Give small bumps in value to any Packer you own this week.

Chicago Bears At Detroit Lions

Bears Vs Position
QB – 29
RB – 18
WR – 13
TE – 32

Lions Vs Positon
QB – 6
RB – 4
WR – 11
TE 21

Matthew Stafford is averaging over 300 yards passing and two touchdown passes per game over the first four weeks of the season. With the Bears giving up over 300 yards passing and 1.75 touchdown passes per game he could duplicate those numbers this week. The Bears rank in the middle of the pack defending against the running back position, but are giving up over five yards per carry and 100 yards rushing per game to the position giving Jahvid Best a strong matchup.

The Lions rank in the top five defending against both the quarterback and running back position and rank in the top 10 defending against the wide receiver position. Matt Forte is still a player you should look to start, but consider him only a low end No. 2 running back or flex play.