By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS

Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

Buy

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games and has averaged 304 yards passing and 2.2 touchdowns per game. He has a great match-up this week against the Seahawks who are giving up 290 yards passing and 2.4 touchdowns to the quarterback position over the last five weeks.

RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – Benson has failed to find the end zone in his last four starts while averaging 86 yards rushing per game. Things should turn around for Benson this week against a Chiefs defense giving up 183 yards rushing and 1.4 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.

Sell

QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – We do not recommend ever benching Manning. Fantasy owners, however, should take note that the Jets are only allowing 157 yards passing and 0.4 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks of the season.

QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – McNabb has averaged 264 yards passing and 1.4 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. Like Peyton Manning, we do not recommend benching him but keep expectations low as the Broncos are giving up only 169 yards passing and 1.2 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position.

WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts – Wayne has struggled over the last five weeks averaging 66 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game. It is not going to get any easier for Wayne this week as he faces Darrelle Revis and the Jets who are giving up only 97 yards receiving and 0.2 touchdowns per game over the last five.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS

A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – Flacco had one of his best games of the season last week against the Bears throwing for 234 yards passing and four touchdowns. He faces the Steelers this week who have struggled defending against the pass most of the season. Over the last five weeks the Steelers have given up 264 yards passing and 1.8 touchdowns per game.

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore had his second straight game of at least 100 yards rushing against the Eagles last week. Over the last five weeks Gore has averaged 78 yards rushing and 0.2 touchdowns per contest. During the same period of time the Lions have given up 142 yards rushing and 1.2 touchdowns per game to the running back position.

WR Michael Crabtree, San Franciso 49ers – Crabtree had his worst game of the season last week totaling just 26 yards on four receptions. It was the first time since Week 10 that he did not have at least 50 yards receiving. Over the last five weeks Crabree has averaged 57 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Lions have given up 187 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers.

WR Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens – Mason has averaged 80 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Steelers have allowed 199 yards receiving and 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers.

Sell

QB Eli Manning, New York Giants - After struggling through most of the mid-season, Manning has turned it on of late. Over the last five games he has four multiple touchdown games, including six in his last two. But with the Giants facing the Panthers fantasy owners might want to look at other options. Over the last five weeks the Panthers have allowed only 213 yards passing and 1.4 touchdowns per game.

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Mendenhall finished last week with just 38 yards rushing but was able to find the end zone for the second time over the last three weeks. In the last five weeks Mendenhall is averaging 74 yards rushing and 0.4 touchdowns per game. During the same period of time the Ravens are giving up only 93 yards rushing and 0.2 touchdowns per game.

RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai has been heavily involved in the Colts offense over the last five weeks averaging 20 touches, 90 offensive yards and 0.6 offensive touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Jets have given up only 73 yards rushing and 0.6 touchdowns to the running back position.

WR Steve Smith, New York Giants – Smith had his lowest receiving total of the season last week against the Giants. Thankfully for fantasy owners he found the end zone for the first time since Week 9.  This week he faces the Panthers who are giving up 130 yards receiving per game and have not given up a touchdown to the position over the last five weeks.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Josh Freeman? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay - You have more guts than any of us if you consider starting Freeman. However, the Saints are giving up an average of 310 yards passing and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the last month and have allowed at least 23 points in three consecutive games. With a game Kellen Winslow and the return of WR Antonio Bryant, Freeman has a couple of options to keep pace with the high-octane Saints.

Email Bling-Bling

By Adam Helbling:

With the end of fantasy football upon us our final Waiver Wire report will focus only on players that might be able to lend you a hand immediately rather than lending a hand down the road or building depth. If you are playing for the title this week, good luck.

Go directly to the waiver wire; Do not pass go; DO collect $200 !!!

QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – Young had his first three-touchdown game of the season last week while throwing for 236 yards against the Dolphins. Over the last four weeks he is averaging 249 yards passing and 1.8 touchdowns per game. He faces the Charges in Week 17 in a decent match-up and is currently available in 75 percent of leagues polled.

RB Maurice Morris, Detroit Lions – All signs point to Morris as the team’s No. 1 running back going forward as no other back for the Lions received more than four carries last week. Don’t count on Morris duplicating his Week 15 numbers, but his involvement in the team’s passing game helps make him a flex option heading into Week 16. Morris is currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

RB Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns – Harrison’s 286 yards rushing last week was the third highest single game total in NFL history.  Unfortunately, Harrison does not face the Chiefs again next week, but he does play the Raiders, who rank 28^th against the run (148.9 rushing yards per game) and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (20) in the league. Currently Harrison is available in 90 percent of leagues polled.

RB Michael Bush/Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – Both McFadden (74 rushing yards and Bush (133, 1TD) posted season highs and had more carries than starter Justin Fargas last week. If you are in a deep league and in need of a flex player, the Raiders face the Cleveland Browns this week, who rank 29^th overall against the run and are allowing 136 yards rushing per game over the last month.

TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers – Finley has had at least 70 yards receiving in three straight games and has scored at least one touchdown in two of the last three. He has averaged seven receptions a week over this time and has carved out a niche for himself in red zone, leading the team with 14 targets. Impressive considering he’s played in 11 games with nine starts. He is currently available in 80 percent of leagues polled.

Email Helbling

By Adam and Adam:

(Feature photo by Adam Conn – His menorah. His team)

One of the keys to building a loyal base of readers at a new website is to carve out a niche for your content and then expand from there. The 411fantasy.com Experts Contest serves that purpose well. The Hanukkah Spectacular, an oldie but goody from our days with Draft Board Insider, is our way of connecting with people of all cultures and backgrounds.

It’s the Festival of Lights, everyone. In short, we celebrate the miracle in which the Maccabees reclaimed the Holy Temple of Jerusalem. Their oil defiled and ruined by the departed Greco-Syrians, it would require seven additional days to process purified oil. The Maccabees only had a single day’s supply of oil. but miraculously eight days later, the oil was still burning, hence, eight days of Hanukkah.

In bringing this as full circle as best we can, 411 celebrates Hanukkah on its eighth and final day by recognizing players who have exceeded expectations, the oil in our menorah so to speak, or those who have performed miracles before our very eyes. Unfortunately, because of the nature of fantasy football, we will also reprimand players who have disappointed us as well. Kind of like biting into a piece of gelt (kosher chocolate), which is barley a step above diabetic candy – sorry, Pops.

Glad I Drafted Him, Wish I Had Traded Him

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - Roethlisberger is a perfect example of a player you were probably thrilled to have drafted, but are now wishing you had traded him. Over the first six weeks of the season Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards and was 9th in passing touchdowns. From Week 7 on he ranks 18th in passing yards and 17th in passing touchdowns. Roethlisberger as a legit top tier quarterback over the first six weeks of the season and has been a liability since.

WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – Like Roethlisberger, Jackson was once a legit top tier performing at his position. Over the first nine weeks of the season Jackson ranked 3rd in receiving yards and 1st in receiving touchdowns among wide receivers. Since Week 9, however, he ranks 36th in receiving yards and has yet to find the end zone. Jackson some time to bounce back, but fantasy owners can’t be too comfortable heading into their playoffs having to count on Jackson.

Glad I Traded For Him Instead of Drafting Him

RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – Over the first six weeks of the season Ryan Grant ranked 18th in rushing yards and 19th in rushing touchdowns. In standard ESPN scoring leagues Grant was averaging just one more point per game than Tim Hightower during this period of time. It was starting to look like one of the players we were pretty high on at the start of the season was going to turn into a bust. Since Week 6 Grant ranks 4th in rushing yards and 8th in rushing touchdowns and has moved just four points away from being a top 10 running back in standard ESPN leagues.

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore’s inclusion here is due in large part to the injury he suffered earlier in the season. He had just one rush Week 3 and missed all of Weeks 3 and 5 before returning Week 7 against the Houston Texans. Since Week 8 Gore has scored a touchdown in six of seven games while ranking 9th in rushing yards and 4th in offensive touchdowns.

Fantasy Bust of The Year (so far)

We have a hard time knocking players who miss most of a season due to injuries, so if you blew a second round pick on Clinton Portis or got burned by Owen Daniels’ injury, those are the breaks. But taking into account each players’ ADP (average draft position) there was one player that stood head and shoulders above the rest. A few that came close but did not make the list were TE Jason Witten, WR Greg Jennings and RB Willie Parker. Here are the top four along with why they belong here and why they didn’t, or in one player’s case did, take the prize.

4. RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – After 14 weeks last year Turner ranked 2nd in rushing yards and 1st in rushing touchdowns. He currently sits at 12th and 16th respectively. Turner currently has 864 yards rushing. At this point last season he had 1,269 yards rushing. Those are pretty significant drops for a player who was drafted No. 3 overall in most leagues. Most of Turner’s drop-off can be attributed to the two ankle sprains that has resulted in him missing three starts and most of Week 10 and 12. Turner’s rushing totals where down prior to his ankle injury Week 10, but he had also scored a touchdown in every game he played in except the first week of the season. For these two reasons, Turner avoids the 2009 BOTY label.

3. RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – Brandon Jacobs has 220 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns less at this point in the season compared to last. This year Jacobs is rushing for 3.9 yards per carry. Last season Jacobs had five yards per carry during the regular season. With three games left in the regular season Jacobs has zero gameswith at least 100 yards rushing and has rushed for less than 50 yards five times. While Jacobs made a strong push for the top spot, Jacobs dodged winning the award because he had a lower ADP than our unlucky winner.

2. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – We at 411 were a bit cautious with Slaton’s draft status going into the preseason. Given that he played the role of workhorse for less than a half a season in 2008, we weren’t sure of his ability to carry the load for a full 16 games. Somehow he scored seven touchdowns while compiling 854 total yards of offense barely saving him from the not-so-honorable award. In 2008 he had 138 carries through 10 games before collecting 130 over his final six. This season Slaton had 131 carries in 10 games plus one carry in one game. He rushed for 264 less yards over that period of time, but balanced that out with more receptions and receiving yards this season. Nevertheless, he was drafted as a high-end No. 2 RB and at best performed like a flex-player with just 417 rushing yards and 3.3 yards per carry. After a series of fumbles, Slaton lost his starting gig for three weeks. Upon his return to the lineup he split carries until his season ended with a shoulder and neck injury last month.

And the winner is……

1. RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – Forte currently has 336 offensive yards and six offensive touchdowns less than he had at this point last year. Forte has just one game with at least 100 yards rushing, seven games with less than 50 yards rushing and has found the end zone in only three games so far this season. Brandon Jacobs has seen the bigger drop-off in his stats from last this to this season, but Forte’s ADP of third overall puts him over the top.

Fantasy Player of The Year (so far)

4. Thomas Jones, N.Y. Jets – This has more to do with value than with overall scoring, although if we would have told you Jones was going to be the fifth highest scoring running back in and ESPN standard scoring system, you would have laughed quite loudly. A look back in the archives proves that 411 was a fan of Jones as someone you could draft low and get quality value. How good of value? Jones was taken on average 24th amongst running backs, 60th overall (the late sixth round, early 7th). Even funnier, his stock went down nearly all summer long, from the mid-fourth round in April. He is on pace to match last years totals of 1,300 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns although he will likely come short by about 100 yards receiving and a touchdown or two from last year – the nerve! Jones is by far the unsung hero of this season’s running back draft class (again).

3. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – There isn’t a lot separating Rodgers from Drew Brees. In fact, there is only a one point difference between two for the top spot in ESPN’s standard scoring leagues. Rodgers gets the nod of Brees because he has that one point advantage, but more important because on average Rodgers was drafted nearly two rounds later than Brees.

2. RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice ranks 9th in rushing yards among NFL running backs, but his 652 yards receiving is nearly 200 yards more than second place. Rice’s increased role in the team’s passing game currently ranked fourth in points scored in ESPN’s standard scoring leagues. There were running backs that posted better numbers, but considering Rice was on average the 29th running back taken in drafts he earns the No. 2 spot on this list.

And the winner is….

1. RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – Johnson is three weeks and 374 yards rushing away from being just the sixth NFL running back to crest the 2,000 yard rushing plateau. Since Week 5 Johnson has strung together eight straight games with at least 100 yards rushing and has totaled 150 yards of offense in six of his last seven games. In ESPN’s standard scoring system Ryan Grant and LaDainian Tomlinson have six more points than Johnson….combined.

Crystal Ball

There is nothing wrong with redraft leagues. However, a true test of a fantasy owner’s skill and a way participate with fantasy football all year long is to get involved in dynasty and keeper leagues. Below is a list of players who might reach elite status in the next year or two that you can probably get at a fairly low price.

QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Cutler was never going to duplicate his 2008 numbers with the Bears. His current offensive line is worse and his wide receivers aren’t even close to what he had in Denver. Even with Cutler’s struggles this season he is closing in on a 3,500 yards passing and 20 passing touchdown season. As the team’s wide receivers continue to improve and upgrades on the offensive line are made, Cutler should see his offensive numbers rise and his interceptions decline.

QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – Young is proving that he can be just as dangerous in the pocket as he is outside of it. With Chris Johnson, defenses are not able to key on the passing game  and as rookie WR Kenny Britt continues to develop, Young could have a true wide receiver weapon, the first in many years for the franchise.

RB Shonn Greene, N.Y Jets – Yes, we’re fans of Thomas Jones, but the guy is ancient. How long can it last? Leon Washington entered the season as the team’s running back of the future in most people’s eyes. After a slow start to the season and an injury that put him on the IR it looks like Green could have the inside track. Greene has a similar running style to Jones and appears to be a good fit for the Jets power running game. Thomas Jones is still a valuable NFL and fantasy running back, but his mileage and age signal that the end of his value and that start of Greene’s could be soon.

WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Much of Britt’s value will be determined upon the development of Vince Young. If Young can continue to develop as a pocket passer and the team’s open up the offense more Britt could be a valuable commodity moving forward. Britt has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games while averaging 72 yards receiving.

WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - Donald Driver has been the team’s most valuable wide receiver this season, but Jennings is the most talented. He is just one year removed from 1,292 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. The team’s struggles on the offensive line prevented them from stretching the field as much as they would like which has limited Jennings value. Upgrading the offensive line during the offseason could go a long way in seeing Jennings return to his 2008 form.

TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers – Finley’s combination of speed and size can cause match-up problems for any defense. As Finley continues to develop and with a balanced offense to keep attention elsewhere, Finley could emerge as a valuable fantasy option over the next couple of years.

Hits and Misses From Our Articles, Blog Posts and Draft Guide

HITS

Matt Forte listed in our ‘Overrated’ section with ‘we think Forte will have a tough time meeting pre-season expectations’

In our Overrated/Underrated article we suggested looking at Matt Schaub over Tony Romo. Schaub and Romo are tied in points, but Schaub was drafted on averaged 24 picks later.

We weren’t sold on Steve Slaton. We pegged him as a running back to drop out of the top 10 rushers this year. In our ‘Texans RBs: Fantasy Impact’ article we said ‘If you’re looking for Slaton to duplicate his 2008 numbers that may be asking too much. Last season he was utilized in 432 plays (touches and targets). Of those 432 plays, 77 came in the red zone. With Slaton losing those carries to Brown, Slaton’s offensive yards and more importantly touchdowns, are likely to take a noticeable dip.’

Last year David Garrard, Jay Cutler and Matt Cassell were all top 10 in passing yards. We predicted all three would drop out of the top 10 this season. All three are good bets to do just that.

Called Dallas Clark a top five tight end that you didn’t have to over-pay for in our ‘Difference Makers’ article.

Tito’s Man Crush Ryan Grant got more ink in our Draft Guide and on the site than any other NFL player.

From Adam Conn’s article ‘Fantasy Impact: Seattle RBs’ talking about Edgerrin James and more importantly Julius Jones “I’m not endorsing either one of these guys as a starting fantasy back”.

In our ‘Fear This RBBC’ article we cautioned counting on any of the Tampa Bay running backs.

In Adam Helbling’s ‘Last Minute Predictions’ blog post he said ‘Ahmad Bradshaw makes the Giants happy they didn’t spend $17 million dollars on an overpriced back-up.

In Adam Helbling’s ‘Last Minute Predictions’ blog post he said ‘Kyle Orton end of the year statistics 3,000 yards and 22 TDs’ and ‘Robert Meachem end of year statistics: 800 yards and 5TDs’. Looking good on both of those.

Helbling also correctly predicted that Vince Young, Josh Freeman and Matt Leinart would be starting QBs by season’s end. The first two based on necessity, the last based on injury. He got all three, but Kurt Warner returned from his concussion, so we’ll give him 2.5 out of 3 on that one. Nicely done.

MISSES

Brandon Marshall listed as ‘Overrated’. Tunred out he was quite the opposite. His draft status plummeted 22nd amongst receivers (behind Eddie Royal!) and he now ranks 7th with 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns.

Earnest Graham listed as ‘Underrated’. Cadillac Williams returned and was shockingly named the starting running back one week prior to the regular season. Graham, meanwhile has been inactive more often than not. Doh. We’re not sure if that surprised us more, or the fact that Williams has remained unscathed from injury this year.

Predicting Philip Rivers to drop out of the top 10 in passing yards this season looked so guru at the start of the year. Right now it just doesn’t look very smart.

We included LenDale White as one of our difference makers…..ugh.

In Adam Helbling’s ‘Last Minute Predictions’ blog post he said ‘ Willie Parker will finish the season as a top 10 fantasy back’.

DREIDEL TIME!!!

We interrupt this self-evaluation for a quick game of dreidel. Everyone antes into the pot. Bets are placed about which letter will be facing up when the dreidel stops spinning and drops. Each side has a letter; nun, gimmel, hay and shin.

They represent the following: Nun (N): No one wins Gimmel (G): The spinner takes the pot Hay (H): Spinner gets half the pot Shin (S): Spinner puts another one into the pot.

First up, RB Darren McFadden…. And it’s NUN, as in, he did NUNthing this season. Tito (and to a lesser degree Conn) were excited about McFadden’s upside and potential this season as the Raiders playmaker. Now he looks like just another Reggie Bush.

Next is, TE Vernon Davis…. GIMMEL, and well deserved. Entering his fourth season, Davis was a, “well, I guess I need a backup, I’ll take a stab at this guy” kind of draft pick this summer. He’s now the best tight end in the league with 811 yards and 11 TDs.

Spinning next is QB Brett Favre…. HAY. Interesting because Favre is having a monster season. But he only gets half the pot because of the shameless media coverage he gets on a weekly basis. This is the only way we can think to punish him because we certainly can’t argue with his playing ability this season.

Last are WR Eddie Royal and RB Brian Westbrook…. And it’s a SHIN. Pay up. If you drafted these two, you likely spent a much higher draft pick than their proven value and it cost you. Other candidates for a SHIN were TE Chris Cooley, The Tennessee Titans defense, QB Carson Palmer and RB Marshawn Lynch.

SHOUT OUT

In celebrating the Festival of Lights, we recognize the following active Jewish players in the NFL and wish them a very Happy Hanukkah.

• David Binn, LS, San Diego Chargers
• Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
• Adam Goldberg, OG, St. Louis Rams
• Cameron Goldberg, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
• Josh Miller, P, Free Agent
• Igor Olshansky, DL, Dallas Cowboys
• Adam Podlesh, P, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Sage Rosenfels, QB, Minnesota Vikings
• Mike Rosenthal, T, Miami Dolphins
• Geoff Schwartz, OT, Carolina Panthers

Please feel free to send us any players we may have accidentally left off.

Happy Holidays to one and all. Stay tuned for next week’s Ode to Festivus by Jeff Thitoff. Thanks for your continued support this season and best of luck in the playoffs!

Email Conn and/or Bling

I’ve been wrong many times as I am sure a number of my ex-girlfriends would tell you. You would have to listen to a lot of other stuff about me first, but trust me they would eventually get around to it. However, I think those freaking out about Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark not taking another snap until the playoffs are being a bit silly. I don’t doubt that Caldwell wants to rest his team, but giving them a min-vacation starting Week 16 means about a month off before taking another non-practice snap. Not happening folk. I know that several members of the organization have said that they aren’t interested in a perfect season, that their only goal is to win a Super Bowl, they are taking one game at a time and blah blah blah. Well good for them because that is what they are supposed to say. If players meant everything they said Brett Favre would be retired and I wouldn’t have to look for a fork to drive into my eye socket every time Peter King or somebody felt the need to tell me how Favre is the most greatestest quarterback evah. The regulars WILL play Week 16. They might not play a full game, but only if they are blowing the other guys out or getting blown out themselves. What about Week 17 you ask? Who cares and why are you playing in a league that has playoff games Week 17?

FYI, Peyton Manning is actually the most greatestest quarterback evah.

By Adam Helbling:

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Colts head coach Jim Caldwell does not appear to be as concerned with chasing history as he does making sure that his players are fully healthy for the post-season run. But fantasy owners can relax a bit as Caldwell has stated that all healthy players will play tonight and there are no indications that Caldwell will pull the plug early in the second half. “The only thing that will deter playing time is health issues – whether or not a player is capable of playing,” he said.

The Jaguars will be playing at home in front of a capacity crowd for the first time this season and a win will help them keep pace in securing an AFC Wild Card berth.

Quarterbacks

Over the last five weeks the Jaguars rank just outside the top 10 defending opposing quarterbacks. During this period of time QBs have averaged 240 yards passing, one touchdown and 1.4 interceptions per contest. When the two teams first met in Week 1 Peyton Manning finished with 301 yards passing, one touchdown and one interception. It isn’t a good match-up for Manning, but match-ups do not matter with Manning. If you own him, start him.

Due to a number of injuries, the Colts have struggled defending against quarterbacks over the last five weeks. During this period of time they rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks surrendering 286 yards passing and 1.8 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position. David Garrard has had his struggles, but has played noticeably better at home than on the road. It is a good match-up for Garrard and he’s a good option, but the team’s reliance on the running game prevents him from being a must start.

Running Backs

The Jaguars have been one of the league’s best teams defending against the run over the last five weeks. Their 74 yards rushing per game given up to running backs is the third fewest during this period of time. Donald Brown has been ruled out with a chest injury which puts a heavier workload on Joseph Addai. Yards have been hard to come by for Addai, but he has been one of he league’s most productive running backs over the last five weeks, averaging a touchdown per game. This match-up makes him best utilized as a No. 2 running back.

Indianapolis has been middle of the road defending against opposing running backs over the last five games. As a unit they have given up 107 yards rushing and 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game. In Week 1, Maurice Jones-Drew had 97 yards rushing and one touchdown. It is a pretty neutral match-up for Jones-Drew who should be considered a No. 1 running back.

Wide Receivers

Over the last five weeks the Jaguars have given up 175 yards receiving per game to opposing wide receivers, but only 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game. It should be noted that during this time the talent the Jaguars secondary has faced has been sub-par other than Andre Johnson. Like Manning, Reggie Wayne is a must start regardless of match-up and had 167 yards receiving and one touchdown when the two teams faced each other in Week 1. Pierre Garcon is a viable option this week as well, but without a favorable match-up he is not a player to count on. Austin Collie should only be used as an option in the deepest of leagues.

The run of injuries in the Colts secondary has seen the unit struggle defending against the pass over the last five weeks. They are allowing over 200 yards receiving and 1.4 receiving touchdown per game to opposing receivers during this period of time. Mike Sims-Walker has struggled over the last five weeks averaging just 40 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game. A calf injury which he has seemed to overcome hasn’t helped, but fantasy owners would be best served using him only as a No. 3 wide receiver this week. Torry Holt is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but has played better of late with Sims-Walker struggling. Now that Sims-Walker is healthy Holt’s value drops some and he should only be considered in deeper leagues.

Tight Ends

Both teams are defending well against opposing tight ends over the last five weeks but as with Manning and Wayne, Dallas Clark is a must start and the only tight end in tonight’s game that should see an owner’s starting line-up.

Kickers

As efficient as the Colts offense has been playing Matt Stover has averaged just one field goal attempt per game. Stover’s chances to contribute are likely to be more from extra points than field goals. Jaguars PK Josh Scobee has the better match-up of the two with the Colts giving up two field goal attempts per game over the last five weeks. With the weakened Colts secondary the Jaguars should be able to move the ball enough to give Scobee enough scoring chances, making him a decent play tonight.

Defense

Fantasy owners should be able to find better defensive units than either the Colts or Jaguars. Manning has had at least two interceptions in four of his last five games, but the Colts should be able to move the ball well enough to prevent the Jaguars from being a strong option. The Colts could be used in deeper leagues, but DE Dwight Freeney may not play, and his P.I.C. Robert Mathis is also on the injury report. Coupled with a struggling secondary, they are a risky play this evening.

Email Helbling

By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs.

Buy

QB Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – Warner’s rough outing against the 49ers is likely to be quickly forgotten with the Detroit on the horizon. The Lions are giving up 291 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest to the quarterback position.

RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – Peterson owners will be smiling this week as the Vi-kings face the Panthers. Carolina is giving up 159 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per contest to opposing running backs over the last five weeks. During the same period of time Pe-terson has averaged 83 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game.

Sell

QB Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – Rivers is averaging 268 yards passing and 1.6 touch-downs over the last five weeks so sitting him isn’t a likely option. With the Bengals allowing 168 yards passing and 0.8 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks during the same period of time expectations should be lowered.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has become the Vikings most valuable receiver over the last five weeks averaging 98 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game. Fantasy owners counting on him this weekend might walk away disappointed with the Panthers allowing only 132 yards receiving and zero touchdowns per contest to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continu-ous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins – Campbell has had multiple passing touchdowns games in three straight weeks and is averaging 254 yards passing and 1.6 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Giants have given up 303 yards passing and two passing touchdown per contest to opposing quarterbacks.

WR Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bryant has averaged 67 yards receiving and 0.3 receiving touchdowns over the last five weeks (four starts). Utilizing Bryant as anything more than a No. 3 wide receiver is a bit risky, but with the Seahawks giving up an average of 206 yards receiving and two touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers it might be a risk that pays offs.

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars - Sims-Walker’s production has taken a noticeable dip over the last five weeks averaging just 40 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per contest. This could be the week he gets back on track with the Colts giving up 202 yards receiving and 1.4 touchdowns per contest opposing receivers during the same period of time.

Sell

WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – Jackson broke the 100 yard receiving mark for the first time since Week 8 last week, but has yet to find the end zone in five straight games. With the Bengals giving up only 102 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks you might want to explore better options.

WR Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – It doesn’t matter what type of numbers a player has been putting up when it comes to facing the Jets and Darrelle Revis. The Jets are giving up only 111 yards receiving and 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks.

PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Josh Freeman? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Freeman had only 93 yards passing and three inter-ceptions last week against the Jets. Things should be easier this week against the Seahawks who are giving up 317 yards passing and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks.

RB Chris Jennings, Cleveland Browns – All signs point towards Jennings taking over the team’s No. 1 RB role over the last couple of weeks. He has a good chance to post solid numbers with the Chiefs giving up 157 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game over the last five weeks to the running back position.

Email Bling

By Adam Helbling:

Go directly to the waiver wire; Do not pass Go; Do not collect $200 (yet).

QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins – Campbell had over 220 yards passing and two touchdowns last week against the Oakland Raiders. Over the last three weeks he has three straight multiple touchdown outings averaging 273 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per contest. Campbell is currently available in 75 percent of leagues polled.

WR Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants – Nicks got the start last week over Mario Manningham against the Philadelphia Eagles and finished with four receptions, 110 yards receiving and one touchdown, his second in as many games. Over the last four weeks of the season Nicks has averaged 70 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Nicks is currently available in just under half of all leagues polled.

WR Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons – Jenkins scored his first touchdown of the season last week against the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons No. 2 receiver has turned in three straight solid performances averaging 5.3 receptions and 85 yards per contest. He makes a nice No. 3 option for teams struggling with depth heading into the play-offs. He is currently available in 95 percent of all leagues.

WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Britt only had two receptions last week, but continued to show big play potential with 75 yards. Britt has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and is averaging 73 yards receiving during that time. He is currently available in 70 percent of leagues polled.

TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers – Finley finished last week’s game against the Chicago Bears as the team’s most targeted player and led the team in receptions and receiving yards. Finley has at least 70 yards receiving in two straight games and makes a decent option for owners tired of rotating tight ends week after week. He is currently available in 20 percent of leagues polled.

Email Helbling

By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs…

Buy

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees has had at least two passing touchdowns in each of the last four weeks of the season and is averaging 306 yards passing and 2.6 touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks. He faces the Atlanta Falcons this week who are giving up 265 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game over that same time.

RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – How good has Johnson been of late? His 113 yards rushing last week was his lowest total in six weeks. His quest for 2,000 yards rushing should get a boost this week as he faces the Rams who are giving up 152 yards rushing and 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks.

Sell

QB Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – Favre has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four out of the last five weeks while averaging 306 yards passing and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. He faces one of the league’s best pass defenses over the last five weeks in the Bengals who are giving up 168 yards passing and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.

RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – Even with Benson missing time due to injury he is averaging a respectable 83 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. But we look for things to be tough going against the Vikings (ranked third overall against the run) who are giving up only 41 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs during the same period of time.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has been one of the league’s highest producing receivers over the last five weeks. During this time he has averaged 113 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per game. You can’t sit him if you own him, but things could be tough against a Bengals unit that is allowing just 93 yards receiving per game to opposing receivers over the same period of time.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans - Even without tight end Owen Daniels, Schaub has been able to produce solid numbers for fantasy owners. Over the last five weeks of the season he has averaged 277 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Seahawks have given up 285 yards passing and 2.4 passing touchdowns per contest.

RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets – Jones has rushed for at least 100 yards or scored a touchdown in each of his last nine games. Over the last five weeks he has averaged 91 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Meanwhile the Buccaneers have given up 150 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game to running backs while allowing five yards per carry.

WR Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens – With QB Joe Flacco (see more below) struggling of late, Mason’s numbers have taken a hit this season. Over the last five weeks he has just one touchdown and averaged 65 yards receiving per game. But he does make a decent No. 3 option this week against a Lions secondary that has given up 214 yards receiving and 1.4 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing receivers during the same period of time.

WR Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – Marshall has averaged 90 yards receiving and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game over the last five weeks of the season. He has good value this week against a Colts defense that is giving up 203 yards receiving and one touchdown per game to opposing wide receivers during the same period of time.

Sell

RB Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins – Over the last five weeks Williams has averaged 89 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per game. But the Jaguars defense has given up just 60 yards rushing and 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs in that time as well.

RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – Over the last five weeks Forte has averaged 96 offensive yards per game thanks to his involvement in the team’s passing game. But he has just one TD over that time, four total, one 100-yard rushing performance and is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season. Forte owners could be in for more disappointment this week against a Packers defense that is given up only 53 yards rushing per game and 3.4 yards per carry to the running backs over the same period of time.

PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share. * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens -  Flacco is averaging just 206 yards passing and 0.4 passing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. He has failed to throw for multiple touchdowns for six consecutive weeks. Things could look more like 2008 for Flacco this week against the Lions defense that is giving up 312 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per contest over the five weeks of the season.

RB Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills – Even as the “starter” Jackson is still splitting carries with Marshawn Lynch. Over the last five weeks of the season Jackson has averaged 47 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. But during the same period of time the Chiefs have given up 145 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Jackson’s value is greater in PPR leagues due to his involvement in the team’s passing game.

*edit* RB Quinton Ganther, Washington Redskins – If your running back corps has been decimated by injuries, Cartwright Ganther might make a nice fall-back option this week. HC Jim Zorn announced today that Ganther would take over the starting role over Rock Cartwirght, but hinted that there would be some form of committee. Nevertheless, any starting running back, especially one facing the Raiders, is worth a pickup. Ganther is averaging 6.0 yards per carry in part-time action the last two weeks. The Raiders defense has given up 149 yards rushing per game over the last five weeks to opposing running backs.

Email Bling

Go directly to the Waiver Wire. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200 (yet).

QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – Smith has thrown for at least two touchdowns in five of seven games since becoming the team’s No. 1 quarterback. Smith had his first 300-yard passing game this past week against the Seahawks and has averaged 256 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per game over the last three weeks. He is currently available in just over 70 percent of leagues polled.

QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – The Titans lost their first game this season with Vince Young starting under center. However, for the second straight week Young turned in strong performance. The last two games Young has averaged 314 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns per game. The Titans aren’t likely to air it out as they did the last two weeks, but Young has shown that when the need arises he can meet the challenge. Young is currently available in 75 percent of leagues polled.

RB Jamal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs – Charles has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four games and has averaged 78 yards rushing per game during the same period of time.  Charles is currently available in nearly 40 percent of leagues polled. Charles may rest up a bit with a sore shoulder but he isn’t expected to miss any games…. The Chiefs play the woeful Bills’ run defense Week 14.

WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Britt recorded a touchdown reception for the third straight week and finished last week’s game with 46 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. Over the last three weeks Britt has averaged 72 yards receiving and one touchdown per game. Britt is currently available in over 85 percent of leagues polled.

WR Robert Meachem, New Orleans Saints - Meachem’s yardage totals may be hit and miss, but the Saints wide receiver has scored at least one touchdown in each of the team’s last five games. Meachem had his first 100 yard game of the season this past week against the Redskins and is averaging 69 yards receiving and 1.2 touchdowns per contest. He is available in over 50 percent of leagues polled.

WR Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis Colts – Garcon has either scored a touchdown or totaled 100-yards receiving over the last four weeks of the season. During this period of time he has averaged 89 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Considering those numbers it is a bit surprising that Garcon is available in over 50 percent of leagues polled.

TE Fred Davis, Washington Redskins – The Redskins tight end has either totaled 50 yards receiving or scored a touchdown in four straight games. During this period of time he has 42 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He is unlikely to put up top of the line fantasy numbers, but for owners currently playing tight end roulette he makes a nice option to settle on. Davis is currently available in nearly all leagues polled.

PK Garrett Hartley, New Orleans – Hartley replaced John Carney as the Saints full time kicker. On Sunday he connected on four of five field goals, missing one from over 50 yards, and three extra points for a 15-point afternoon. Given that Carney (13-of-17 field goals, 52 extra points) was a top 10 kicker, it’s quite conceivable that Hartley, who has not missed a field goal under 49 yards in his 17 career attempts, will be a top 5 kicker the rest of the season. He is available in 99 percent of leagues polled, but that won’t last long.

Email Helbing

By Adam Helbling:

At this point in the season you probably have a pretty good read if your team has playoff potential or if you need to start planning who you will take with next year’s first overall pick. For those of you in the latter group, you will have to check back in about eight months. For fantasy owners who see the playoffs in their future it is never too early to start planning for the stretch run. Consider acquiring or shipping the below listed wide receivers who either have a very favorable or very unfavorable set of match-ups over the last four weeks of the season. For Helbling’s first installments on quarterbacks, click here; Running backs, click here

* Match-ups between weeks 13-16 were used in judging the value of each players. Week 17 is not included as most leagues, due to NFL teams sitting their starters, have their championship game Week 16.

Trade For

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans – While the price to acquire Johnson will be a steep one, looking at his match-ups over the last four weeks of the fantasy season it could be worth it. The worst match-up that Johnson faces during this period of time is Week 13 against the Jaguars who are giving up 173.7 yards receiving and 1.36 touchdowns per contest. Week 14, Houston faces the seventh worst team in defending receivers, the Seahawks, who are also ninth worst over the last month. Weeks 15 and 16 are against the Rams and Dolphins, who are average at best.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - The most difficult match-up that Jackson will face over the last four weeks of the fantasy season is Week 15 against the Cincinnati Bengals who are giving up 134 yards receiving and 0.45 touchdowns per game. The remaining match-ups Jackson has during this stretch are against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in defending against the wide receiver position, including this Sunday at Cleveland. Week 16, most leagues championship game, Jackson faces the Titans secondary who is giving up 181.5 yards receiving and 1.82 touchdowns per game this season.

Trade Away

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – White is on pace for a third straight 1,000 yards season and has already matched his career high in touchdowns (7). He is averaging 70 yards receiving and 0.64 touchdowns per game to date. Even with those numbers he isn’t a player fantasy owners should count on during the stretch run due to match-ups. White has three games against defenses that rank in the top 10 in defending against the wide receiver position. In weeks 15-16 he faces the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets who rank one and two defending opposing wide receivers this season. This week? The Falcons draw the third-ranked Eagles. SELL, SELL, SELL!

Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys – Austin has scored seven touchdowns since emerging in Dallas Week 5, and while it might be difficult to part with that type of production, selling high is the key to trades. Austin has a favorable match-up Week 15 against the Saints, but over the last four weeks, the Saints are 10th best defending opposing receivers (130.8 rec. yards per game). The three other games are all against defenses that rank in the top 10 in defending the position this season – Giants 4th, Chargers 5th, Redskins 8th.

Email Helbling