By Adam Conn:

As a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, I was asked to submit my ballot on the following; My 2009 All Fantasy Team, Fantasy MVP and a Rookie of the year selections. The MVP and Rookie are taken from a pool of five players, based on a ranking scale. I will post the final results of the poll once they are all collected and tabulated.

I based my votes on five factors – 1) Total numbers for the season, obviously. 2) How they fared between Weeks 13-17 (Week 17 was considered less than the rest). 3) Points per game. 4) Consistency.  5) Fantasy draft value.

In most cases the numbers speak for themselves (see Johnson, Chris), but when weighing the options, I looked further down the list.

Beginning with the All-Fantasy Team, many of these choices are self explanatory, but as a newspaper guy, I elaborate  for good measure.

All-FANTASY TEAM:

QB – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers.

Drew Brees tossed 34 touchdown passes, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning had 33 apeice, but Rodgers added 316 rushing yards and five touchdowns to his 4,434 passing yards and 30 passing TDs – not to mention a couple of two-point conversions. Keep in mind Rodgers got punished behind a sub-par offensive line during the first half of the season, and yet he was still able to maintain elite fantasy status. All four QBs tailed off in December, but Rodgers had a couple of rushing TDs to beef up his numbers. Meanwhile Brees and Manning took sebaticals and while Favre was good over that stretch, his pedestrian weeks against the Bengals and Panthers didn’t help.

RB – Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

2,000+ rushing yards, 500+ receiving yards, 16 total TDs (13 over last 10 games) and 11 straight 100-yard rushing games… Nuff said.

RB – Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

MJD and Ray Rice were briefly considered, but ADPs 18 touchdowns, not to mention his 280 rushing yards, 157 receiving and six touchdowns over the last four weeks, were plenty to earn my vote.

WR – Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

We’re still waiting for him to log 10+ touchdowns, but leading the league in yards by over 200, plus 101 receptions made him the highest scoring receiver in most standard leagues. Johnson was also amazing down the stretch (Weeks 14-17, 31-525-3TDs).

WR – Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys

I’m sure I’m not the only one to choose Austin over Randy Moss, but this is where points-per-game came into play. In this case it was more like points-per-start. Austin didn’t become an every down player until Week 5. Through the first four weeks, he had just 5 receptions for 81 yards and one score. Moss, by comparison, had 29 receptions, 331 yards and a score. By season’s end, Austin had 76 more yards (1,320 to Moss’ 1,264), two less receptions (81-83), and two less TDs (11-13). According to ESPN standard scoring, he scored just two less fantasy points then Moss. Given his limited playing time over the first four weeks, Austin likely would have passed Andre Johnson as the leading fantasy receiver in the league.

TE – Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts

This came down to Clark vs. Vernon Davis. Frankly, I could still go either way on this one. Davis earns bonus points because he was a flyer draft pick at best in August and Davis bested Clark by three touchdowns, 13-10. But Clark grabbed 100 receptions to Davis’ 78, had 138 more yards and had five of his 10 touchdowns in Weeks 14 and 15, truly difference-making numbers come playoff time.

PK – Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers

Another coin flip between Kaeding and David Akers, who was slightly better than Kaeding over the final four weeks of the season. Akers was also rock solid nearly every game, scoring at least seven points in all but two games. Keading had more points, but was a bit more up and down with four games under seven points.  Kaeding, however, had more impact games. He tallied 12 points or more seven times. Akers had just three. Paralysis by analysis for kickers, I’m sure.

DEF – N.Y. Jets

This was hard in that there really wasn’t a single dominating fantasy defense this season. What one excelled in, it also lacked in another area. The Packers and Eagles had a good deal more turnovers and sacks, while the Saints scored touchdowns, one every other game on average, but all three gave up a ton of points over the last handful of games nullifying their early and mid-season success. The 49ers tightened up their game, but only scored big against the Rams and Lions.  Otherwise it was a good, but not great, season for San Fran. The Jets had a rocky few games in the middle of the season, but beginning Week 12 clamped down and was clearly the top defense in the league. It was the only must-start defense from Thanksgiving on.

IDP – LB Patrick Willis, San Francisco

This is strictly rewarding a player for points scored. Willis’ tackle numbers and contributions as a multi-dimensional linebacker easily earned him this award. But two others could earn this vote for different reasons. CB Charles Woodson had nine interceptions, three returned for touchdowns, with 18 passes defended and four forced fumbles. Add in his 66 solo tackles and Woodson was among the best fantasy defensive backs in the league, but by comparison to Willis, his fantasy numbers aren’t as close as they might appear. Next to Woodson, Darrelle Revis’s tackle numbers are even lower (47 solos) as are his interceptions (6). He had an astounding 31 passes defended while shutting down nearly every receiver in the game. He was a difference maker in that he held the opposition to well below average fantasy games. So if you were going up against Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Mike Sims-Walker, Steve Smith (CAR), Terrell Owens, Roddy White or Reggie Wayne at any point this season opposite Revis, you held a distinct advantage at wide receiver. That’s hard to measure, but to be sure, Revis’ contributions to fantasy football were felt in more ways than one.

MVP:

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Johnson was great, no question, but Rodgers was great from Weeks 1-17.

RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – It’s not his fault that Kerry Collins limited his ability. It’s actually quite impressive that he accomplished what he did given the first six weeks of the season. But again, his numbers weren’t MVP material during that time. Several games, and potentially playoff bids, were lost due to Johnson’s slow start. While it is extremely important to finish strong, the ramifications of scoring in just one of his first six games took a fantasy toll on many owners.

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – His numbers might have landed him top billing other years, but it just wasn’t enough.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – Just two TDs and one 100-yard game over the last six weeks didn’t help.

RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – It won’t be long before Rice climbs this ladder.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

WR Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants – Fluke touchdown receptions or not, Nicks put up solid rookie numbers and landed a starting role by mid-season. But the difference here was his draft status. Nicks was an afterthought in most re-draft leagues, giving owners exceptional value on D-Day.

RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – Had more yards than Nicks and scored two more touchdowns, but for where he was drafted, his week-to-week totals were too sporadic.  This will probably be a point of contention with others.

RB Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – What hurt Wells was his split time with Tim Hightower through Week 12, without which Wells would likely top this list.

WR Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings – Multi-dimensional weapon made for a good flex play from time to time, but as Favre and Sidney Rice began to gel, Harvin, who also missed Week 14 with migraine headaches, faded into the shadows, especially when it counted.

WR Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts – Collie finished strong with three touchdowns in Weeks 13, 14 and 15 to go with 94 yards Week 16, but trying to decide between him and Pierre Garcon through the middle weeks was like playing bingo most weeks. He was good, but too inconsistent.

Questions, Comments, Smack? Email Conn

By: ADAM CONN

Darrelle Revis is one sick cornerback. Every week, Jeff, Adam and myself would talk about how an owner starting a top receiver should lower his/her expectations because Revis would be standing on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Lower expectations? How about DO NOT START. Revis was so good this season, he made No. 1 fantasy wide receivers nearly irrelevant.

According to a chart obtained from ESPN.com, only Randy Moss and Mike Sims-Walker scored touchdowns against Revis. Only Moss had more than four receptions against Revis (5-34) and no receiver had more than 35 yards (Andre Johnson, Week 1). It should be noted that some weeks below are absent from the chart, which tallies Revis against the upper echelon receivers in the leauge.

In Week 3, the Jets played the Titans, who have nary a top receiver. Kenny Britt led Tennessee with four catches and 59 yards. In Week 5 the Jets lost to the Dolphins and gave up 31 points, including 2-57 yards and a touchdown to Ted Ginn Jr., but Ginn did not start that game and saw limited action, thus he did not draw top coverage (Revis). Greg Camarillo (3-33) led Miami among starting wide receivers. In Week 7 the Jets shut out the Raiders and Louis Murphy was the leading receiver with 4-59. Against the Dolphins in Week 8, Devonne Bess recorded four receptions for 18 yards. Ginn Jr. scored twice – on kickoff returns. Week 14, the leading WR for Tampa was Antonio Bryant (2-22). The rest are noted below.

Safe to say, outside of a 10+ point performance by Sims-Walker and a 9+ points by Moss, if you had a No. 1 WR playing the Jets, you had better options. Next season, are you willing to sit your studs against Revis? No? Take a look at the chart and get back to us.

Receivers vs. Darrelle Revis / Receivers vs. Rest Of The NFL

Week	Receiver	vs. Revis	Avg vs. NFL	TD
1	Andre Johnson, Texans	4-35-0	7-105	9
2	Randy Moss, Patriots	4-24-0	5-86	12
4	Marques Colston, Saints	2-33-0	5-70	9
6	Terrell Owens, Bills	3-13-0	4-76	4
10	Sims-Walker, Jaguars	3-49-1	4-54	7
11	Randy Moss, Patriots	5-34-1	5-86	12
12	Steve Smith, Panthers	1-5-0	5-70	7
13	Terrell Owens, Bills	3-31-0	4-56	4
15	Roddy White, Falcons	4-33-0	5-75	10
16	Reggie Wayne, Colts	3-33-0	7-82	10
17	Ochocinco, Bengals	0-0-0	5-70	9

Totals: Studs against Revis: 2.81 receptions, 26.36 yards, 0.18 TDs per game

Totals: Studs against rest of NFL: 5.09 rec. 75.45 yards, 0.78 TDs per game

Email Conn

Fellow experts and Thitoff,

It is with great honor and humility that I accept the 411fantasy.com 2009 Expert of the Year award. I have so many people to thank, but I’ll try and narrow it down to a handful of key contributors, without whom I could not have accomplished such a monumental achievement. But before I do, a brief look into what I’m really thinking

Now then, a shout out to:

- WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker in Week 6 for rewarding my double-dip pick of both wide-outs against the Titans, a 59-0 romp.

- WR Greg Jennings and RB Matt Forte, for actually showing up in Week 8 in a season full  of disappointments.

- RB Ricky Williams in Week 11 for coming through in his first NFL start in over a year and first 20+ carry game since the 2005 season.

- WR Miles Austin in Week 15 for backing up my Namath-esque prediction earlier in the week.

So many players, so little bandwidth, but I can’t forget to mention Jonathan Phillips of Roto Experts and Jeff Boggis of Fantasy Sports Empires for their unsolicited smack-talk over the final few weeks to keep me sharp. This is as much yours as it is mine, fellas… Okay, not really, but thanks anyway!

Speaking of unsolicited, I would like to take a trip down memory lane to revisit comments made by 411 co-founder Jeff Thitoff during my championship run.

* Week 2: “Enjoy this moment, Conn – this is a marathon, not a sprint…and I’m not even warmed up yet.” …. Still waiting.

* Week 6:  Silence (a first for everything) upon my second 1st place finish.

* Week 8: After posting my third top score of the season, Thitoff writes, “It’s good for business if the co-founder of the site is at the head of the class, but it makes it tough to talk to him. He’s looking at various tattoo designs with the word ‘guru.’ ”

* Week 14:  I received my first compliment, “Our own Adam Conn smarted his way to 21 points and jumped to the top of the “Expert of the Year” contest.” That statement was followed by this passive-aggressive nugget, “Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes…. would be leading the contest with a 15.86 average.”

Despite my cruise-control run through Weeks 15-17, every subsequent article by Thitoff included a needling reminder that O’Malley would be leading the pack had he enough entries to qualify. I maintain the law of averages would have caught up to him – stay tuned….

* Then finally this gem last Tuesday, “At this point, I could allow for Conn to say something…. (But) quite frankly, I didn’t really want to talk to him.”

Folks, that’s just jealousy.

Our dear friend and Senior Writer Adam Helbling thinks my win is tainted because he claims he is smarter than me. In most other areas, perhaps, but to him and the rest of the nay-sayers I offer this; Don’t hate – Elevate, dominate, celebrate; In that order.

The teleprompter reads that I should share a sincere moment.

It has been a pleasure to compete with each and every one of you and we could not have successfully completed another season without you. We’re thrilled to provide a forum where the top-dogs around the country can test their wits against one another, amicably and professionally. We very much hope that all of you will return and hope to generate a larger interest to make this even a tougher field.

Many thanks to everyone for making this possible and 411fantasy.com wishes you all the best in 2010.

The 411

Last year Conn finished seventh overall, one of three Experts to claim two Top 10 spots in as many years. Michael Cooper of Cooper Sports Radio placed seventh this season a year after his fourth place finish and Jared Smola of Draft Sharks placed ninth a year removed from his fifth place finish. I think we have our three favorites for 2010…. Last year Roto Experts dominated the field with five representatives in the Top 10. This year Fantasy Phenoms’ Peter Davidson (tied for 3rd) and Jason Sarney (10th) held a majority…. 411fantasy.com hopes to increase the field from 35 to 50 next season…. Thitoff is still bitter.

Email Conn-tastic here

 

BY JEFF THITOFF
As I sat down to pen this ode to the 2009 Experts Contest winner, I was reminded of this moment. You need only view the first 12 seconds to grasp what it’s like to work with Adam Conn of 411fantasy.com, the newly-crowned “Fantasy Football Expert of the Year.”

Conn emerged from an incredibly impressive field of experts and edged out Michael Jones (Football Diehards), Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Sports Empires) and Peter Davidson (Fantasy Phenoms). In all, 35 experts from 23 of the top fantasy sports sites – including ESPN, CBS Sports, RotoExperts, Yahoo and Sports Illustrated – took part in the competition.

(At this point, I could allow for Conn to say something – a quote about how humbled he is, or how much of his success he owes to me – but I will let him do a post of his own on the site. Quite frankly, I didn’t really want to talk to him.)

Conn becomes the second winner of the now-annual contest. Jonathan Phillips from RotoExperts won the event in 2008. The results from the 2008 contest are here, and an interview with Phillips last year is here for the nostalgic types.

The 17^th week of the NFL season was a difficult one to predict. Some key players were rested, some were benched (Denver) and that led to some surprising performances.

Patrick Welsh from Fantasy Pros 911 claimed the top spot in the weekly competition. Michael Jones (Football Diehards), Ross Mandel (NFL Draft Bible) and Matt Schauf (Rapid Draft) tied for second.

The top predictors for Week 17:

1. Patrick Welsh, Fantasy Pros 911

T2. Michael Jones, Football Diehards; Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft; Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible

5. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio

T6. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com; Zack O’Malley Greenburg, Forbes

T8. Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms; Adam Helbling, 411fantasy.com

T10. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires; Mike Gilbert, Roto Experts

12. Dave Richard, CBS Sports

 And, in the season-long competition for the prestigious “Fantasy Football Expert of the Year” award:

1. Adam Conn, 411fantasy.com – 14.65

2. Michael Jones, Football Diehards – 14.35

T3. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires; Peter Davidson, Fantasy Phenoms – 14.18

5. Ross Mandel, NFL Draft Bible – 13.93

6. Russ Bliss, Fantasy Football Starters – 13.88

7. Michael Cooper, Cooper Sports Radio – 13.67

8. Dave Richard, CBS Sports – 13.62

9. Jared Smola, Draft Sharks – 13.46

10. Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms – 13.27

11. Jeff Thitoff, 411fantasy.com – 13.25

12. Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft – 13.06

T13. Mike Gilbert, Roto Experts; James Rathbone, Fantasy Football InDepth – 13.00

15. Patrick Welsh, Fantasy Pros 911 – 12.93

16. Adam Helbling, 411fantasy.com – 12.76

It should be noted that Zack O’Malley Greenburg from Forbes posted the top average for the season (15.30), but wasn’t added to the contest until Week Eight. To be eligible for the crown, participants have to compete in at least 13 weeks.

Just adds to the drama for the 2010 contest, when he will be a participant from the start…

Jeff Thitoff and Adam Conn were once again proud to join Michael Cooper of Cooper Sports Radio on The Football Expert . Teams doggin’ it, coaches on the hot seat and a few holiday jabs get tossed around in this year’s final show. Oh yeah, we also go game-by-game to tell you who to start and/or sit for Week 17.  Click on the above links to listen to the program.  Best of luck and many thanks to Coop for his 411 support this year.

Quarterback

1. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
2. Matt Schaub, Houston
3. Brett Favre, Minnesota
4. Matt Ryan, Atlanta
5. Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants
6. Tom Brady, New England
7. Kurt Warner, Arizona
8. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
9. Jay Cutler, Chicago
10. Tony Romo, Dallas
11. Chad Henne, Miami
12. Vince Young, Tennessee
13. David Garrard, Jacksonville
14. Alex Smith, San Francisco
15. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo
16. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
17. Joe Flacco, Baltimore
18. Matt Moore, Carolina
19. Mark Brunell, New Orleans
20. Jason Campbell, Washington
21. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
22. Kyle Orton, Denver
23. Mark Sanchez, N.Y. Jets
24. Charlie Frye, Oakland
25. Derek Anderson, Cleveland
26. Matt Cassel, Kansas City
27. Daunte Culpepper, Detroit
28. Billy Volek, San Diego
29. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
30. Keith Null, St. Louis
31. Curtis Painter, Indianapolis
32. Philip Rivers, San Diego
33. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
34. J.T. OSullivan, Cincinnati
35. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis

Running Back

1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee
2. Ray Rice, Baltimore
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
4. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
5. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
6. Frank Gore, San Francisco
7. Matt Forte, Chicago
8. Steven Jackson, St. Louis
9. Jerome Harrison, Cleveland
10. Thomas Jones, N.Y. Jets
11. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh
12. Fred Jackson, Buffalo
13. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
14. Ahmad Bradshaw, N.Y. Giants
15. Justin Forsett, Seattle
16. Knowshon Moreno, Denver
17. Donald Brown, Indianapolis
18. Mike Bell, New Orleans
19. Jason Snelling, Atlanta
20. Marion Barber, Dallas
21. Maurice Morris, Detroit
22. Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay
23. Ricky Williams, Miami
24. Sammy Morris, New England
25. Felix Jones, Dallas
26. Arian Foster, Houston
27. Quinton Ganther, Washington
28. Reggie Bush, New Orleans
29. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia
30. Chris Wells, Arizona
31. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta
32. Larry Johnson, Cincinnati
33. Correll Buckhalter, Denver
34. Mike Tolbert, San Diego
35. Ryan Moats, Houston
36. Darren McFadden, Oakland
37. Tim Hightower, Arizona
38. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
39. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo
40. Lynell Hamilton, New Orleans
41. Fred Taylor, New England
42. Brandon Jackson, Green Bay
43. Ahman Green, Green Bay
44. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
45. Mike Hart, Indianapolis
46. Chester Taylor, Minnesota
47. Shonn Greene, N.Y. Jets
48. Michael Bush, Oakland
49. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay
50. Willis McGahee, Baltimore
51. Lex Hilliard, Miami
52. Brian Leonard, Cincinnati
53. Kevin Faulk, New England
54. Darren Sproles, San Diego
55. LeRon McClain, Baltimore

Wide Receiver

1. Andre Johnson, Houston
2. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
3. Roddy White, Atlanta
4. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh
5. Sidney Rice, Minnesota
6. Steve Smith, N.Y. Giants
7. Miles Austin, Dallas
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
9. Anquan Boldin, Arizona
10. Calvin Johnson, Detroit
11. Hakeem Nicks, N.Y. Giants
12. Randy Moss, New England
13. Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville
14. Wes Welker, New England
15. Terrell Owens, Buffalo
16. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco
17. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh
18. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
19. Santana Moss, Washington
20. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay
21. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia
22. Devin Aromashodu, Chicago
23. Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland
24. Derrick Mason, Baltimore
25. Percy Harvin, Minnesota
26. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh
27. Austin Collie, Indianapolis
28. Lance Moore, New Orleans
29. Steve Breaston, Arizona
30. Jabar Gaffney, Denver
31. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle
32. Jerricho Cotchery, N.Y. Jets
33. Lee Evans, Buffalo
34. Braylon Edwards, N.Y. Jets
35. Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina
36. Kenny Britt, Tennessee
37. Devery Henderson, New Orleans
38. Roy Williams, Dallas
39. Earl Bennett, Chicago
40. Greg Camarillo, Miami
41. Davone Bess, Miami
42. Justin Gage, Tennessee
43. Deion Branch, Seattle
44. Andre Caldwell, Cincinnati
45. Chris Chambers, Kansas City
46. Josh Morgan, San Francisco
47. Mario Manningham, N.Y. Giants
48. Bernard Berrian, Minnesota
49. Michael Jenkins, Atlanta
50. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati
51. Kevin Walter, Houston
52. Malcom Floyd, San Diego
53. Donnie Avery, St. Louis
54. Legedu Naanee, San Diego
55. Jacoby Jones, Houston

Tight End

1. Jason Witten, Dallas
2. Vernon Davis, San Francisco
3. Greg Olsen, Chicago
4. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota
5. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh
6. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay
7. Brent Celek, Philadelphia
8. Fred Davis, Washington
9. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta
10. John Carlson, Seattle
11. Zach Miller, Oakland
12. David Thomas, New Orleans
13. Dante Rosario, Carolina
14. Kevin Boss, N.Y. Giants
15. Todd Heap, Baltimore
16. Bo Scaife, Tennessee
17. Ben Watson, New England
18. Anthony Fasano, Miami
19. Desmond Clark, Chicago
20. Dustin Keller, N.Y. Jets
21. Antonio Gates, San Diego
22. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay

Kicker

1. Ryan Longwell, Minnesota
2. Matt Prater, Denver
3. Rian Lindell, Buffalo
4. Jay Feely, N.Y. Jets
5. David Akers, Philadelphia
6. Matt Bryant or Steven Hauschka, Atlanta
7. John Kasay, Carolina
8. Ricky Schmitt, San Francisco
9. Rob Bironas, Tennessee
10. Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh
11. Billy Cundiff, Baltimore
12. Stephen Gostkowski, New England
13. Nate Kaeding, San Diego
14. Lawrence Tynes, N.Y. Giants
15. Dan Carpenter, Miami
16. Garrett Hartley, New Orleans
17. Mason Crosby, Green Bay
18. Neil Rackers, Arizona
19. Kris Brown, Houston
20. Robbie Gould, Chicago
21. Shaun Suisham, Dallas
22. Phil Dawson, Cleveland

Defense

1. Baltimore Ravens, Baltimore
2. Chicago Bears, Chicago
3. San Francisco 49ers, San Francisco
4. Denver Broncos, Denver
5. New York Jets, N.Y. Jets
6. Atlanta Falcons, Atlanta
7. Arizona Cardinals, Arizona
8. Tennessee Titans, Tennessee
9. Minnesota Vikings, Minnesota
10. Cincinnati Bengals, Cincinnati
11. Green Bay Packers, Green Bay
12. Buffalo Bills, Buffalo
13. Carolina Panthers, Carolina
14. San Diego Chargers, San Diego
15. Indianapolis Colts, Indianapolis
16. Pittsburgh Steelers, Pittsburgh
17. Philadelphia Eagles, Philadelphia
18. Dallas Cowboys, Dallas
19. Cleveland Browns, Cleveland
20. Kansas City Chiefs, Kansas City
21. New Orleans Saints, New Orleans
22. Washington Redskins, Washington

Email Conn

BY ADAM CONN:

Controversy is brewing in the NFL; To play or not to play? Unfortunately, these are the risks fantasy owners take when they agree to a 17-week schedule. The best of the best will rest leaving fantasy owners pressed and stressed in their quest for success…. Anybody want a peanut?  In lieu of the Big Daddy podcast, Conn serves up his own version… Poddin me?

Indianapolis at Buffalo

News flash? The Colts will rest their starters this week. The only question that remains is which running back will get the bulk of the carries. As I’ve stated before, any back facing the Bills is one worth starting. Some believe that Chad Simpson and Mike Hart will share carries the entire second half if not the final three quarters. Others like Donald Brown. I’m one of those guys. Brown’s workload was limited most of the season, especially late. Last week against the Jets he had his highest number of carries all season (15), matching his total number of carries between weeks 7-15. Getting him ready for the post-season should be near the top of the Colts priority list and the Buffalo is a great team to practice on. Brown and WR Austin Collie are the only players worth considering for Indy this week.

Buffalo will likely benefit much the way the N.Y. Jets did last week. Thomas Jones put up good numbers on the ground, 21-105 and a touchdown, but had only 34 yards on 10 carries in the first half. Fred Jackson might get off to a similar sluggish start, but against second and third stringers, Jackson’s value rises into a No. 2 RB this week. The same could be said for WR Terrell Owens and yes, even Lee Evans – IF Ryan Fitzpatrick starts. Without Fitz however, or rather with Brian Brohm, stay away from the Bills passing attack.

With Fitz, Bills 23, Colts 17
Without Fitz, Colts 17, Bills 16

New Orleans at Carolina

Saints have home field throughout the playoffs locked up, so expect to see several starters rested for at least the second half in Carolina. QB Mark Brunell will start in place of Drew Brees and as such, confidence is low this week for Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and so on. Pierre Thomas has been ruled out so it’ll be a committee approach for Mike Bell and Reggie Bush, who will both eventually step aside for Lynell Hamilton. It is wise to stay away from all Saints except for PK Garret Hartley.

Carolina has certainly looked more competent since Matt Moore took over at quarterback and I expect to see another successful game out of him and Jonathan Stewart, who is an auto Top 5 player this week assuming DeAngelo Williams (ankle) misses this game. No Steve Smith (IR) this week, which could kill Carolina’s chances for an upset, but against the Saints reserves the Panthers players (and some staff members) will attempt to save and/or audition for jobs next season.

Saints 24, Panthers 23

Jacksonville at Cleveland

MJD and Sims Walker – Next?

Based on the recent play and game-planning by Cleveland, Jerome Harrison is about as close to a must start as it gets for a running back on a crappy team. Theoretically it’s a good match up too. The Jags are average against the run and QB Derek Anderson may be able to put up respectable numbers against a dismal Jags pass defense (ranked 27th overall). Another 30 carries is expected for Harrison, who has 73 attempts, 454 yards and four scores the past two weeks. Can the Browns win four in a row? Yes.

Browns 17, Jaguars 14, OT

New England at Houston

Patriots can all but clinch the No. 3 seed with a win, but have zero shot at earning a bye. Nevertheless we’ve seen New England play all-out in the most meaningless of games, even with a 15-0 record from two years ago. I expect roughly the same approach this week against the Texas, who are destined to be an 8-8 team. I think Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker owners are good to go this week, but use caution with Laurence Maroney, who was pulled last week after a goal-line fumble. Sammy Morris took over and rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Either way, the Texans are one of eight teams to allow less than 100 yards rushing a game over the last month.

The Texans will shoot for their first winning season in franchise history and will ride the hot arm and hands of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Schaub is averaging 315 yards passing per game over the last four weeks and Johnson is logging in 140 yards and a score per game during the same period of time. Arian Foster appears to be the lead back to close the season, but it’s not the best of match ups. The Patriots rank in the top third of the league against the run and have allowed just four rushing TDs this year.

Patriots 27, Texans 20

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota

The Giants, losers of seven of their last 10, have only pride to play for having missed the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Brandon Jacobs is out, which propels Ahmad Bradshaw into a starters role, but against the Vikings it will be tough for him to crack the top 20 this week. I’ll back him as a weak No. 2, given that he’ll command a fair number of touches, but Eli Manning has that pained expression on his face again and the Giants look like a team waiting for golf season to begin. Go Steve Smith and Bradshaw gain 411 approval, as does TE Kevin Boss, but I’m not counting on any of them to carry my teams this week.

Speaking of teams stuck in reverse, The Vikings are still fighting for a bye in the post season despite losing three of four. Really Minnesota… the Bears??? Lucky for them they get a team even less motivated these days. Visanthe Shaincoe tops my Vikings starters, as the Giants have allowed the most points to opposing tight ends this season. Shaincoe has 10 touchdowns including four in the past six weeks. He will finish among the Top 5 this week at his position. The remaining Vikings players fall in line as usual. ADP, Favre, Rice = Start. Harvin = Flex.

Vikings 30, Giants 20

San Francisco at St. Louis

Last week I called for Alex Smith to post 260 yards and two TDs…. 230 and one didn’t cut it. The Rams pass defense presents another possibility for Smith to achieve solid numbers. I’m maintaining my stance on two touchdowns (one to Crabtree, one to V.Davis), but I’ll lower his yardage totals to 235. Frank Gore cracked 1,000 yards last week, all the while missing four games earlier this season. He has 69 carries over the last three weeks (23 per game) and he should maintain that pace against a miserable Rams run defense. Gore is a Top 5 candidate this week as is Davis and the 49ers defense, which tallied three defensive TDs against St. Louis back in Week 4.

Steven Jackson is expected to play against the 49ers this week and is a must start. This is also a 1 p.m. kickoff, so if there are any last minute changes to his game-day status, you’ll have a chance to pull him out of your lineup. Ignore all other St. Louis players.

With Jackson: 49ers 31, Rams 16
Without Jackson: 49ers 34, Rams 9

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

In what woulda, shoulda, coulda been a career game for Jason Snelling last week, the Falcons rolled out a RBBC approach against the woeful Bills. 28 carries split between Snelling (15) and Jerious Norwood (13) totaled 120 yards. Atlanta rushed 37 times in all and a similar game plan could be in order again this week at Tampa. The Bucs have allowed 146 rushing yards on 31 carries per game over the last month. They have also allowed a rushing touchdown a game so far this season. Theoretically that belongs to Snelling as the goal-line threat, which is why he’ll once again get the 411 nod over Norwood. Roddy White is also a very good option as TE Tony Gonzalez (calf) may not suit up in the finale.

It was nice to see Cadillac Williams post his first 100-yard game of the season last week and it’s also nice to see that he’ll finish a full season (knock-knock) for the first time…. ever. Wow. He’s averaging a healthy 4.1 yards per carry en route to 200+ carries and 800+ yards, second only to his rookie campaign in 2005 (290-1,178) – Awesome comeback. We’re afraid that last week, however, was Williams’ best effort as this week’s opponent is allowing just 73 rushing yards per game over the last four games. The Falcons stifled the Bills and Jets recently and held the Bucs to just 73 yards in Week 12. We don’t see Cadillac or Derek Ward hitting 50 this week, especially without lead blocker Earnest Graham (toe) out for the season. TE Kellen Winslow is the only must start on this team. WR Antonio Bryant (3-91, 1TD in Week 12) is a good flex option.

Falcons 26, Buccaneers 17

Pittsburgh at Miami

Santonio Holmes has a chance to post elite numbers this week against a soft Dolphins pass defense and possibly without Hines Ward (hamstring). The Dolphins have allowed more 20+ yard receptions than any other team this season, so Holmes and potentially Mike Wallace are primed for big games. Miami also just lost MLB Channing Crowder, making Rashard Mendenhall a decent enough option. Mendenhall scored in three of four games in December, salvaging an otherwise pedestrian month from a yardage point of view (64-230-3.6 ypc). Crowder’s absence could also pave the way for Heath Miller to have another solid outing in has what already has been a career year for the tight end.

Ricky Williams, a-la Cadillac, is having a comeback season of his own, but will be relegated to a weak No. 2 RB play this week – and that’s if he suits up after suffering a shoulder injury last week. Pittsburgh got beat up on the ground by the Ravens, but they’re still the third best team against the run and names like Lex Hilliard is far from threatening. Chad Henne has thrown for 300+ yards in three of four games, but has just four TDs to six INTs over that time. Like many teams against the Troy Polamalu-less Steelers yards will come easily, but in a must-win situation, Pittsburgh prevails.

Steelers 27, Dolphins 24

Chicago at Detroit

Matt Forte’s only 100 yard game this year came against the Lions in Week 4. Congrats, Matt. You get an actual plug from 411 this week. Enjoy just your fifth 4.0 or more yards-per-carry game this season. And sure, I’ll jump on the Devin Aromashodu bandwagon. No Devin Hester; No Johnny Knox… why not. Greg Olsen? You betcha – the Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends this year. Hell, I’ll even plug Jay Cutler this week if he’s your backup to Manning, Brees or Rodgers.

Calvin Johnson is a start because he’s Calvin Johnson. I mean, the guy caught 96 of 130 passing yards from Drew Stanton last week. He managed to salvage something out of nothing, which is just about what Detroit has to offer this week as well.

Bears 31, Lions 10

Philadelphia at Dallas

Eagles soaring into the post season and can clinch the division with a win. DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek have been on fire and are must starts, but don’t expect game-breaking performances. The last two weeks the Cowboys were able to tame the Saints and shut out an improved Redskins offense, or so we thought. In Week 9, Dallas held Donovan McNabb to 227 yards and one TD to Celek, who had 3 receptions for 39 yards. Jackson had just two catches for 29 yards. Stay away from Brian Westbrook or LeSean McCoy. The Eagles, who are using a two-to-three RB committee, are barely averaging 100 yards rushing over the last month, and the Cowboys have been tops in the league over that same period of time, allowing just 70 rushing yards a game.

Miles Austin continues to shine and like DeSean Jackson is a must start. Austin has at least six receptions and 71 yards receiving in his last five games to go with four touchdowns, giving him 11 total. In addition, Jason Witten has come to life since Thanksgiving and has three 100+ yard games since Turkey Day. The Eagles allow the most receptions and yards to opposing tight ends… Gobble-Gobble. On the flip side, Roy Williams is sulking, and has just two receptions in the last two games. Marion Barber and Felix Jones are splitting carries at about a 55-45 ratio, limiting their fantasy values. If you’re in a TD weighted league, Barber passes as a No. 3/flex option. Otherwise, don’t expect more than 45-55 yards apiece, coincidence unintended.

Eagles 23, Cowboys 17

Kansas City at Denver

Josh McDaniels has a funny way of coaching a team into the playoffs. Apparently the strategy is to start 6-0, lose seven of your next nine games, and then bench your best player in a must-win situation. Check. Brandon Marshall will not play because according to McDaniels, Marshall has been dogging it with a hamstring injury. “We’re looking to put the 45 guys on the field on Sunday that want to play together, want to help us try to win and qualify for the playoffs,” McDaniels said. “… And anybody that showed any indifference to that, we’ll play without them.” Mmmkay. This is the same Marshall that not only set a record with 21 receptions three weeks ago, but has 15 more since and was voted to the Pro Bowl. TE Tony Scheffler was demoted to the scout team, WR Eddie Royal (scrub) might miss the game with a head injury…. RB Knowshon Moreno is a good play this week, by the way. He would have been a great play, but um… see above.

While the Broncos defense has been solid most of the year, recent trends suggest that the Chiefs could pose some problems. Denver has allowed 28, 20 and 30 points the last three weeks. The Chiefs, in losing five straight (I can’t believe this team beat Pittsburgh), have found a grove with Jamaal Charles and recently got Dwayne Bowe back from suspension. Nevertheless, Matt Cassel’s horrific season continues and throwing an average of 40 passes per game (over the last three weeks) is not a winning formula. I would avoid all Chiefs players this week with the exception of Charles, who has three straight 100+ yard games and a touchdown in six of his last seven games.

I would love to see the Chiefs roll in this one, but on four Matt Prater FGs and a Moreno TD the Broncos win 19-10

Baltimore at Oakland

Pass the Rice, please. Over the last four weeks, the Ravens are the third best rushing team in the league (168 yards per game, 1.5 TDs). Ray Rice has 549 total yards (448 rushing) in that span and gets to face the 29th ranked run defense in the league. The Raiders gave up 148 to Jerome Harrison last week. Nuff said. I’d shy away from Joe Flacco and company unless you’ve been hit with the Week 17 stud-benching curse.

Avoid any and all Oakland players.

Ravens 27, Raiders 6

Tennessee at Seattle

From 0-6 to possibly 8-8, the Titans will be a force next season. Their surge into 2010 will continue this week at Seattle and at or near the top of the charts will once again sit Chris Johnson. Johnson’s near-record setting season is in large part due to Vince Young, who has opened up the Titans offense considerably since Week 8. Johnson may actually crack 100 yards both rushing and receiving this week as Seattle has allowed 288 yards passing and seven scores over the last four weeks. With that in mind, Young makes a good start if he’s your backup to P. Manning, Brees, Rivers or Rodgers. Match up alone, he’s worth considering as well. Lately, however, it’s been hard picking a Titans receiver as there’s been a different team leader in each of the last three weeks. Kenny Britt has cooled off considerably over the last few games.

Seattle…. What an uninspired bunch. Technically Matt Hasselbeck and T.J. Houshmandzadeh have a good match up, but Housh has had a miserable season save for two games and Hass has tossed eight picks in his last two games. Julius Jones added an ankle injury to his aggravated ribs injury… maybe Jim Mora Jr. will actually wise up and start Justin Forsett (14-70 last week). If so, plug him in as a No. 2 back. Otherwise, move on.

Titans 27, Seahawks 13

Washington at San Diego

Speaking of uninspiring, the Redskins have nothing to look forward to except yet another coaching change, another offensive coordinator change, overpriced free agents and a disgruntled (fill in players name here). However, the Chargers will rest most of their starters this week, allowing the Redskins a chance to post better than expected numbers. RB Quinton Ganther makes an okay play this week as does TE Fred Davis. Jason Campbell? Errr, no.

The Chargers will employ second and third stringers this week, so say goodbye to LT, Gates, V.Jackson and Phillip Rivers and even Darren Sproles as fantasy options. If you want to make a splash pick up RB Mike Tolbert at the last minute and roll the dice.

Chargers 20, Redskins 17

Green Bay at Arizona

Ryan Grant giveth, and he taketh awayeth. My colleague Jeff Thitoff has been boasting non-stop about Ryan Grant’s leap into the Top 8 among running backs, which is where Tito predicted Grant would finish by season’s end. As I tried to explain, it was circumstantial due to injuries and playoff strategery. Grant will now lose his grip in the rankings as he is poised to sit most Sunday’s game while Steven Jackson rightfully takes his spot back. Grant and a host of other starters (Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, etc.) will rest as the Packers will enter the playoffs as a fifth or sixth seed based on the outcome of the Eagles/Cowboys game. Shy away from the Pack unless you want to take a flyer on Brandon Jackson and/or Ahman Green… yeah I said it, Ahman Green.

The Cardinals have a shot at a No. 2 seed and a first round bye, but it is contingent upon whether or not the Vikings lose. If so, Arizona will go all out to earn a week off. If not, expect them to scale back on offense. Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin and Wells’ status remain a question mark and you should juggle your roster accordingly if you can. Many roster deadlines are at 1 p.m. but if you have the option to make subs before the 4 p.m. games pay close attention to the Giants/Vikings early game. No matter, Steve Breaston makes a good option this week. Green Bay is strong against the run and he may see the field more than any other receiver this week.

Cardinals 24, Packers 20

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets

Flex scheduling has never failed so miserably. The Bengals will likely rest their starters in the second half, if not sooner, and allow an underachieving luck-box Jets team coast into the playoffs with no regard for the integrity of the game…. I’m not bitter. Personally I’m pulling hard for L.J., but there are very few appealing options for Cincy assuming the worst, which is no Carson Palmer, Ochocinco, Cedric Benson et all. Frankly, given the Jets defense (see Revis, Darrelle), Benson would have been the only lock of the bunch.

Regardless of how many Bengals sit down, Thomas Jones remains the only quality start for New York.

Who Dey? Sadly, no.

Jets 16, Bengals 13

Email Conn-Job

Subject to change. Chargers/Titans game not included. Not valid with any other offer. Void where prohibited.

WEEK 16 RANKINGS

Quarterback

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
3. Tom Brady, New England
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona
5. Matt Schaub, Hosuton
6. Alex Smith, San Francisco
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
8. Tony Romo, Dallas
9. Joe Flacco, Baltimore
10. Brett Favre, Minnesota
11. Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants
12. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
13. Matt Ryan, Atlanta
14. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
15. Chad Henne, Miami
16. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
17. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
18. Jason Campbell, Washington
19. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
20. David Garrard, Jacksonville
21. Matt Moore, Carolina
22. Kyle Orton, Denver
23. Jay Cutler, Chicago
24. Mark Sanchez, N.Y. Jets
25. Charlie Frye, Oakland
26. Derek Anderson, Cleveland
27. Brian Brohm, Buffalo
28. Drew Stanton, Detroit
29. Matt Cassel, Kansas City
30. Keith Null, St. Louis

Running Back

1. Frank Gore, San Francisco
2. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati
3. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
4. Jason Snelling, Atlanta
5. Ryan Grant, Green Bay
6. Chris Wells, Arizona
7. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
8. Ray Rice, Baltimore
9. Jerome Harrison, Cleveland
10. Steven Jackson, St. Louis
11. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
12. Ricky Williams, Miami
13. Thomas Jones, N.Y. Jets
14. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans
15. Brandon Jacobs, N.Y. Giants
16. Laurence Maroney, New England
17. Marion Barber, Dallas
18. Ahmad Bradshaw, N.Y. Giants
19. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
20. Maurice Morris, Detroit
21. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh
22. Mike Bell, New Orleans
23. Darren McFadden, Oakland
24. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta
25. Knowshon Moreno, Denver
26. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay
27. Fred Jackson, Buffalo
28. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis
29. Quinton Ganther, Washington
30. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
31. Justin Forsett, Seattle
32. Michael Bush, Oakland
33. Reggie Bush, New Orleans
34. Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay
35. Correll Buckhalter, Denver
36. Felix Jones, Dallas
37. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo
38. Tim Hightower, Arizona
39. Ryan Moats, Houston
40. Matt Forte, Chicago
41. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia
42. Leonard Weaver, Philadelphia
43. Shonn Greene, N.Y. Jets
44. Julius Jones, Seattle
45. Willis McGahee, Baltimore
46. Chester Taylor, Minnesota
47. Larry Johnson, Cincinnati
48. Arian Foster, Houston
49. Chris Jennings, Cleveland
50. Kevin Faulk, New England
51. Donald Brown, Indianapolis
52. Sammy Morris, New England
53. Glen Coffee, San Francisco
54. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
55. Mewelde Moore, Pittsburgh

Wide Receiver
1. Andre Johnson, Houston
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
3. Greg Jennings, Green Bay
4. Randy Moss, New England
5. Miles Austin, Dallas
6. Wes Welker, New England
7. Anquan Boldin, Arizona
8. Marques Colston, New Orleans
9. Steve Smith, Carolina
10. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati
11. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco
12. Robert Meachem, New Orleans
13. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
14. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh
15. Sidney Rice, Minnesota
16. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh
17. Derrick Mason, Baltimore
18. Donald Driver, Green Bay
19. Brandon Marshall, Denver
20. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
21. Calvin Johnson, Detroit
22. Josh Morgan, San Francisco
23. Roddy White, Atlanta
24. Steve Smith, N.Y. Giants
25. Roy Williams, Dallas
26. Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville
27. Hakeem Nicks, N.Y. Giants
28. Austin Collie, Indianapolis
29. Santana Moss, Washington
30. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle
31. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
32. Jerricho Cotchery, N.Y. Jets
33. Percy Harvin, Minnesota
34. Chris Chambers, Kansas City
35. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia
36. Devery Henderson, New Orleans
37. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh
38. James Jones, Green Bay
39. Mark Clayton, Baltimore
40. Torry Holt, Jacksonville
41. Braylon Edwards, N.Y. Jets
42. Donnie Avery, St. Louis
43. Terrell Owens, Buffalo
44. Chaz Schilens, Oakland
45. Steve Breaston, Arizona
46. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay
47. Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland
48. Michael Jenkins, Atlanta
49. Mario Manningham, N.Y. Giants
50. Davone Bess, Miami

Tight End

1. Vernon Davis, San Francisco
2. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay
3. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis
4. Jason Witten, Dallas
5. Fred Davis, Washington
6. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay
7. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta
8. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota
9. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh
10. Dante Rosario, Carolina
11. Zach Miller, Oakland
12. John Carlson, Seattle
13. Brent Celek, Philadelphia
14. David Thomas, New Orleans
15. Tony Scheffler, Denver
16. Todd Heap, Baltimore
17. Kevin Boss, N.Y. Giants
18. Greg Olsen, Chicago
19. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville
20. Dustin Keller, N.Y. Jets

Kicker

1. Garrett Hartley, New Orleans
2. Mason Crosby, Green Bay
3. Shayne Graham, Cincinnati
4. Mike Nugent, Arizona
5. Ricky Schmitt, San Francisco
6. Matt Bryant, Atlanta
7. Shaun Suisham, Dallas
8. Ryan Longwell, Minnesota
9. Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis
10. David Akers, Philadelphia
11. Lawrence Tynes, N.Y. Giants
12. Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh
13. Billy Cundiff, Baltimore
14. Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland
15. Stephen Gostkowski, New England
16. Dan Carpenter, Miami
17. Phil Dawson, Cleveland
18. Kris Brown, Houston
19. John Kasay, Carolina
20. Matt Prater, Denver

Defense

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Indianapolis Colts
12. New England Patriots
13. New York Giants
14. Baltimore Ravens
15. Houston Texans
16. New York Jets
17. Carolina Panthers
18. Miami Dolphins
19. Denver Broncos
20. Buffalo Bills

Email Conn

The new and improved (see humble) Adam Conn finds himself atop the Experts Contest standings after a ho-hum 21-point effort, only bested by fellow guru Adam Barricklow’s 23 point performance. Paging Jeff Thitoff?

What you won’t see me write or hear me say is how Fantasy Football Empire’s Jeff Boggis has zero chance to catch me. Not my style. You won’t hear me say how last week’s 21 point effort was all about my rankings, without any help from the multiple choice questions. I’m above that.

What you will hear me say is… GURU… humbly of course.

Below is my official Expert Entry for Week 15. For Helbling’s click here.

Quarterback
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans
2. Matt Schaub, Houston
3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona
5. Tom Brady, New England – Nearly went to the bullpen and called Romo up. Weather up North, Bills vulnerable run defense – Hemmin’ and a hawin’, back and forth…. Alas, it was too late. The Saints/Cowboys game had begun. Love that Brady guy!
________________________________________

Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
2. Ray Rice, Baltimore
3. Knowshon Moreno, Denver
4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
5. Chris Wells, Arizona – That’s right – No Chris Johnson.  Flame away.

________________________________________

Wide Receiver
1. Andre Johnson, Houston
2. Anquan Boldin, Arizona
3. Randy Moss, New England
4. Marques Colston, New Orleans – Meachem is scoring at will, but Dallas has been getting torched by so-callled No. 1 receivers lately.
5. Miles Austin, Dallas

________________________________________

Tight End
1. Vernon Davis, San Francisco
2. Fred Davis, Washington – Giants roll out the red carpet for opposing tight ends.
3. Jason Witten, Dallas
4. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay – Should he not be able to go, he’ll be replaced by either Gonzo or Finley.
5. Brent Celek, Philadelphia

________________________________________

Kicker
1. Billy Cundiff, Baltimore
2. Garrett Hartley, New Orleans
3. Kris Brown, Houston
4. Mike Nugent, Arizona – For all you Buckeye homers out there… Nuuuuuuge.
5. Rob Bironas, Tennessee

Trying to find a way to sneak Mare in here.  Stay tuned.

________________________________________

Defense
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Denver Broncos
5. Houston Texans

Which one of these quarterbacks will have the most fantasy points?

Kyle Orton

Josh Freeman

Jason Campbell

Matt Hasselbeck

Tough call between Campbell and Hasselbeck, but Hass. is down Burleson. Edge goes to the resurgent(?) Campbell.

Which one of these running backs will have the most fantasy points?

Justin Forsett

Quinton Ganther

Chris Jennings

Arian Foster

Seattle’s nonsensical commitment, to any degree, towards Julius Jones is making me sick. As much as I would like, I cannot get behind Forsett. Redskins commit to one guy, which is good enough for me.

Which one of these wide receivers will have the most fantasy points?

Steve Smith (CAR)

Santana Moss

Joshua Cribbs

Dwayne Bowe

I know, I know. I’ve got Moss ranked one spot higher than Bowe.  But I’m going with upside even though Bowe is just coming off a four-game rip. Moss hasn’t seen 74 yards receiving since Week 3.  Bowe hit 74 yards or more four out of his last five games he’s played. The Redskins don’t need Moss as much as the Chiefs need Bowe.

Which one of these defenses/special teams will have the most fantasy points?

Buffalo

Oakland

Chicago

Cincinnati

Neither one of these teams are in my top 20, but I’ll give Cincinnati the nod despite the tough match up agasint the Chargers and recent thumping they took at Minnesota.

Which one of these running backs will have the most fantasy points?

DeAngelo Williams

Ryan Grant

LaDainian Tomlinson

Chris Wells

I may have stumped myself on this one. Can I snub Williams, a hot Grant or even recent TD machine LT? Yes – Yes I can. Keep fubmling Timmy, it’s Wells’ hour to shine. See also my Top 5 running backs above – GURU!

Email Conn

WEEK 15 RANKINGS

Quarterback
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans
2. Matt Schaub, Houston
3. Kurt Warner, Arizona
4. Tom Brady, New England
5. Tony Romo, Dallas
6. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
8. Brett Favre, Minnesota
9. Jason Campbell, Washington
10. Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants
11. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
13. Philip Rivers, San Diego
14. Kyle Orton, Denver
15. Chad Henne, Miami
16. Matt Cassel, Kansas City
17. Alex Smith, San Francisco
18. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
19. Mark Sanchez, N.Y. Jets
20. Joe Flacco, Baltimore
21. Vince Young, Tennessee
22. Matt Ryan, Atlanta
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo
24. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
25. Brady Quinn, Cleveland
26. Jay Cutler, Chicago
27. Daunte Culpepper, Detroit
28. Matt Moore, Carolina
29. Kyle Boller, St. Louis
30. Charlie Frye, Oakland
________________________________________

Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
2. Ray Rice, Baltimore
3. Knowshon Moreno, Denver
4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
5. Chris Wells, Arizona
6. Chris Johnson, Tennessee
7. Laurence Maroney, New England
8. Steven Jackson, St. Louis
9. Thomas Jones, N.Y. Jets
10. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati
11. Frank Gore, San Francisco
12. Ricky Williams, Miami
13. Ryan Grant, Green Bay
14. Fred Jackson, Buffalo
15. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
16. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
17. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans
18. Brandon Jacobs, N.Y. Giants
19. Quinton Ganther, Washington
20. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh
21. Michael Turner, Atlanta
22. Chris Jennings, Cleveland
23. Reggie Bush, New Orleans
24. Marion Barber, Dallas
25. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
26. Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay
27. Felix Jones, Dallas
28. Kevin Faulk, New England
29. Tim Hightower, Arizona
30. Ahmad Bradshaw, N.Y. Giants
31. Arian Foster, Houston
32. Matt Forte, Chicago
33. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo
34. Justin Forsett, Seattle
35. Ryan Moats, Houston
36. Julius Jones, Seattle
37. Shonn Greene, N.Y. Jets
38. Maurice Morris, Detroit
39. Jerome Harrison, Cleveland
40. Willis McGahee, Baltimore
41. Mike Bell, New Orleans
42. Sammy Morris, New England
43. Justin Fargas, Oakland
44. Aaron Brown, Detroit
45. Darren McFadden, Oakland
46. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay
47. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
48. Chester Taylor, Minnesota
49. Darren Sproles, San Diego
50. Leonard Weaver, Philadelphia
51. Peyton Hillis, Denver
52. Chris Brown, Houston
53. Jason Snelling, Atlanta
54. LeRon McClain, Baltimore
55. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta
________________________________________

Wide Receiver
1. Andre Johnson, Houston
2. Anquan Boldin, Arizona
3. Randy Moss, New England
4. Marques Colston, New Orleans
5. Miles Austin, Dallas
6. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
7. Wes Welker, New England
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
9. Sidney Rice, Minnesota
10. Calvin Johnson, Detroit
11. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay
12. Greg Jennings, Green Bay
13. Robert Meachem, New Orleans
14. Brandon Marshall, Denver
15. Donald Driver, Green Bay
16. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle
17. Vincent Jackson, San Diego
18. Steve Smith, N.Y. Giants
19. Kenny Britt, Tennessee
20. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco
21. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh
22. Roy Williams, Dallas
23. Hakeem Nicks, N.Y. Giants
24. Jerricho Cotchery, N.Y. Jets
25. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh
26. Santana Moss, Washington
27. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
28. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati
29. Steve Smith, Carolina
30. Roddy White, Atlanta
31. Steve Breaston, Arizona
32. Devery Henderson, New Orleans
33. Terrell Owens, Buffalo
34. Lee Evans, Buffalo
35. Derrick Mason, Baltimore
36. Braylon Edwards, N.Y. Jets
37. Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland
38. Devin Thomas, Washington
39. Bernard Berrian, Minnesota
40. Davone Bess, Miami
41. Deion Branch, Seattle
42. Donnie Avery, St. Louis
43. Johnny Knox, Chicago
44. Chris Chambers, Kansas City
45. Jason Avant, Philadelphia
46. Josh Morgan, San Francisco
47. Kevin Walter, Houston
48. Josh Cribbs, Cleveland
49. Demetrius Williams, Baltimore
50. Nate Washington, Tennessee
51. Greg Camarillo, Miami
52. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh
53. Michael Jenkins, Atlanta
54. Brandon Gibson, St. Louis
55. Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina
________________________________________

Tight End
1. Vernon Davis, San Francisco
2. Fred Davis, Washington
3. Jason Witten, Dallas
4. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay
5. Brent Celek, Philadelphia
6. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta
7. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay
8. Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans
9. Antonio Gates, San Diego
10. Kevin Boss, N.Y. Giants
11. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh
12. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota
13. John Carlson, Seattle
14. Greg Olsen, Chicago
15. Bo Scaife, Tennessee
16. Leonard Pope, Kansas City
17. Dustin Keller, N.Y. Jets
18. Todd Heap, Baltimore
19. Tony Scheffler, Denver
20. Randy McMichael, St. Louis
________________________________________

Kicker
1. Billy Cundiff, Baltimore
2. Garrett Hartley, New Orleans
3. Kris Brown, Houston
4. Mike Nugent, Arizona
5. Rob Bironas, Tennessee
6. Nick Folk, Dallas
7. Matt Prater, Denver
8. David Akers, Philadelphia
9. Lawrence Tynes, N.Y. Giants
10. Jay Feely, N.Y. Jets
11. Stephen Gostkowski, New England
12. Ryan Longwell, Minnesota
13. Graham Gano, Washington
14. Olindo Mare, Seattle
15. Nate Kaeding, San Diego
16. Mason Crosby, Green Bay
17. Connor Barth, Tampa Bay
18. Dan Carpenter, Miami
19. Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh
20. Ryan Succop, Kansas City
________________________________________

Defense
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Denver Broncos
5. Houston Texans
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Green Bay Packers
8. New England Patriots
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. San Diego Chargers
11. Tennessee Titans
12. New York Jets
13. Miami Dolphins
14. New York Giants
15. New Orleans Saints
16. Cleveland Browns
17. Seattle Seahawks
18. Washington Redskins
19. Kansas City Chiefs
20. San Francisco 49ers

Questions? Comments? In awe? Email Conn