Out On A Limb

I watched Youth In Revolt the other day and told a friend of mine that I was surprised at how much I liked it. He replied that he didn’t really care for it and 20 minutes later I found myself arguing that Youth In Revolt was one of the top five movies of all-time. I’m pretty quick to go all-in in an argument, even if I don’t completely believe it. Youth In Revolt being a top 5 of anything being a perfect example. Listed below are some predictions that I am going all-in on this season.  Some of them will probably leave you scratching your head and others will probably leave you chuckling, but I believe them.

Prediction No. 1: Michael Turner finishes the year as a top three fantasy running back and has at least 18 touchdowns.

Reason(s): Turner single handedly sunk a couple of my fantasy teams last year, but

phot from ajc.com

I’m stillriding the bandwagon. Over the first nine weeks of last season Turner had 10 touchdowns and was averaging 4.6 yards per carry. In the week that he suffered his ankle sprain (Week 10), he had 111 yards rushing on just 9 carries. I don’t think Turner is injury prone, despite him missing most of the season with the ankle injury. I think the issue was mainly that the Falcons brought him back too early. I see Turner picking right up were he left off last year pre-ankle injury and in the Falcons run first offense will be in line for a huge year.

Prediction No. 2: Jacoby Jones finishes the year with at least 950 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns.

Reason(s): Jones has the size and speed you want in an elite receiver and his 16.2 yards per catch average from 2009 shows he has big play potential. According to team reports, it is the mental side of things that has held Jones back and those same reports all point to Jones finally getting the mental side of things in order and I’m buying. Jones won’t have to worry about many double coverages with Andre Johnson on the other side of the field and as long as Schaub stays healthy I think the Texans No. 2 becomes, at worst, a weak No. 2/strong No. 3 fantasy option at wide receiver.

Prediction No. 3: Larry Fitzgerald finishes the year outside the top 10 in fantasy scoring at the wide receiver position.

Reason(s): His quarterback is Derek Anderson. Derek. Anderson.

Prediction No. 4: Matthew Stafford finishes the year with at least 3,300 yards passing and 25 touchdowns.

Reason(s): Javid Best, Nate Burleson, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford will all have to remain healthy for Stafford hit the totals I’m predicting, but this article is Out On A Limb and not Guys Who Could Have Better Than Expected Seasons.  I think the Lions added some strong offensive weapons to their arsenal and the defense remains weak enough that there will be plenty of shoot-outs with the Lions this year.
Prediction No. 5: Jerome Harrison finishes the year as a top 20 scoring running back

Reason(s):  In games that Harrison had at least 15 carries he averaged 147 yards rushing per game. Harrison is in line for the bulk of the carries in Cleveland and I think the passing game gives the running game just enough space to have a productive season.

Got any of your own predictions that might be a bit out there? Hate one of mine? Post away in the comments.

Not exactly fantasy football related, but a good read from Clark Judge over at CBS on some of the winners and losers from cutdown day. Judge has a bit more info on what happened this past Saturday with Vincent Jackson.

At first, one NFC general manager told me, they asked for first- and third-round draft picks as compensation, but when that didn’t fly they lowered their demands. In the end, he said, the price dropped so much so that, by the close of business Saturday, “they’d take almost anything.”

Yet no deal was made, and there’s a reason.

“The money,” he said. “It’s way too much. They’re asking for more than Brandon Marshall [five years, $50 million], and there’s no way people are interested.”

I had read elsewhere that Jackson had actually come to terms with a team on a one-year deal, but the whole thing fell apart when the unnamed team couldn’t agree to a deal with the Chargers.  Who knows which story is true, but the bottom line remains that Vincent Jackson owners have a black hole on the roster when they could have had
Donald Driver.

Judge has Derek Anderson listed as one of his winners from cut down day and provides another reason as to why I am so down on the Cardinals offense this year.

The Tribe’s Tony Sipp was more accurate than Anderson, who last season completed 44.5 percent of his passes, threw three touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, had a passer rating of 42.1 and won a game 6-3 where he had two completions. Now he starts.

I got to see a lot of Derek Anderson last season thanks to no Sunday Ticket and words can’t describe how horrible he looked. I passed on Fitzgerald in a lot of drafts and am glad I did.

The one person who stood out, to me at least, in the loser section was Josh McDaniels.

I presume he’s the guy behind trading away a first-round pick for defensive back Alphonso Smith in the 2009 draft. Well, this just in: He dumped Smith for tight end Dan Gronkowski which means … you spent a first-round draft pick on a tight end who was the 255th draft pick — or next to last — and who didn’t fit in with the Lions, who cut him twice. Great. I also presume McDaniels was the genius behind signing defensive lineman Jarvis Green to that four-year, $20 million deal. It made sense because McDaniels and Green were on the same side in New England, so McDaniels had the book on the guy. Only he must have had the wrong one. Memo to McDaniels: Stick to coaching and leave personnel to somebody, anybody, else.

Something that I think should be added to that is that in the time McDaniels has been with the team he has lost Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Replacing them are Kyle Orton and Jabar Gaffney. To this I say…..

Thanks guys! The rest of us in the league appreciate you basically taking a pass on your 7th round pick (Jackson’s current ADP in 10 team leagues).

Yours Truly,
the rest of your league

The latest on the trade front is that an unnamed team and Jackson had come to terms on a one-year deal, but the unnamed team and the Chargers could not agree on compensation for the wide receiver. As a result, the Chargers put him on the roster exempt list. According to Bill Williamson, the NFLPA would probably try and get him off the exempt list if a trade was made but there is no guarantee they would be successful.

People drafting Jackson was one of the stranger moves that I saw during draft season. I’m not against taking players who are going to miss time to start the season. I have Santonio Holmes in some leagues and Ben Roethlisberger in others, but both fell well below their ADP. More importantly Roethlisberger and Holmes both were in camp and participated in preseason. Jackson probably hasn’t put on pads since the Chargers got bounced from the play-offs. Jackson will miss three games being on the exempt list and is still facing a three game suspension for his two DUI arrests. This means, as of now, Jackson won’t see the field until Week 7 at the earliest. With the Chargers facing a bye
Week 10, you used a seventh round pick for a WR that will be eligible to play in 9 games.

This was meant to be part of an amazing article, but Mr. Conn is too damned lazy bragging about how awesome all his fantasy teams are and I am pretty sure Tito has been kidnapped so I’m putting it here.

On The Bandwagon

Wide Receiver Jacoby Jones – Arian Foster stole the show the other night against the Dallas Cowboys rushing for over 100 yards, but it was Jones that I noticed most. He finished the night with five receptions, 63 yards and one touchdown. Mr. Conn and myself disagreed about his value when preparing for a draft where we are co-owners. He pointed out that the No. 2 in Houston always sucked. I pointed out that the No. 2 in Houston sucked because it was often Kevin Walter. Jones has all the physical skills you want in a wide receiver. The knock on him has always been the mushy stuff between his ears. I’ve been picking him up late in drafts and can’t wait for Mr. Conn to eat his words.

Running Back Ryan Matthews – The Chargers finished 15th in rushing attempts last season. With Vincent Jackson MIA and the addition of Ryan Matthews I think that number could climb a bit this season. I’m usually gun shy about drafting rookies. I think they tend to have inflated value due to the amount of press they tend to get, but I would feel pretty good about getting Matthews in the mid second round. Matthews has a good combo of power and speed and has averaged 4.3 yards per carry this preseason. The only real downfall I see with Matthews is I worry about his touches in the red-zone as long as Gates is around.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford – I try not to base too much off of preseason, but it is tough to ignore the fact that Stafford has competed 74 percent of his pass and has a quarterback rating of 106. I don’t expect him to duplicate those numbers during the regular season, but I like him to post much better numbers than his rookie year. A full year under his belt is one thing, but I like the addition of Javid Best and Nate Burleson just as much. Add that to the fact that Stafford has the most physically gifted wide receiver in the league and I think that there is enough upside to present owners with some value in deeper leagues. With an ADP of the late 12th round he isn’t going to cost you much.

Tight End Zach Miller – Judging from Miller’s ADP (early 10th round) there aren’t too many people who noticed that Miller had his best year as a pro. Miller finished 2009 with 805 yards receiving and three touchdowns. So what you want about Jason Campbell, but he is a clear upgrade for the Raiders at quarterback. With Campbell under center (keep an eye on that wrist) I think the Raiders are a more efficient and effective offense getting Miller additional looks in the red zone. If you are planning on waiting on tight end in your draft, and with the depth at the position you should, Miller makes a pretty attractive option.

I’ll be back tomorrow (fingers crossed) with four bandwagons you won’t find me on this season.

A bit delayed, but better late than never right?

1. Andre Johnson
2. Austin Miles
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Randy Moss
5. Larry Fitzgerald
6. Roddy White
7. Sidney Rice
8. Greg Jennings

I’m more up in the air with my rankings at the WR position than probably any other position. I’m not confident in Leinart throwing the ball to Fitzgerald. Who throws to Rice if Favre doesn’t come back. Can Kevin Kolb make DeSean Jackson a top 8 WR? How big of a jump in production does Matthew Stafford make in his second season? I really think WR is a position that has a lot of sorting out to do before now and the kick-off of the season. For now the top three I have are those with the least number of questions surrounding them. The rest have so many questions surrounding them that I could probably move them around on a daily basis.

1. Vernon Davis
2. Antonio Gates
3. Dallas Clark
4. Visanthe Shiancoe
5. Heath Miller
6. Brent Celek
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Jason Witten

For the last several years I have been a pretty big advocate of taking a TE early in the draft. I have some more numbering crunching that I want to do, but I don’t see myself being as big an advocate of that this season. One guy that I really want to keep an eye on in draft is Jermichael Finley. I think he pushes for a top 8 spot and if he goes late enough present some pretty solid value. Heath Miller should probably be someplace in the top 8. I think he gets more looks with no Holmes, but I worry about the whole suspension thing with Big Ben.

Please attempt to choke down the laughter just a bit as you take a glance at my preliminary top 8 at QB and RB heading into this season. I certainly am not putting a lot of stock into them at this point and frankly neither should you. So why put it up here? Well, you have to start somewhere.

Very Preliminary Top 8 QBs
1. D. Brees
2. A. Rodgers
3. P. Manning
4. M. Schaub
5. T. Brady
6. T. Romo
7. P. Rivers
8. B. Favre

My two cents….
I rarely target top 8 quarterbacks in my leagues. If one happens to fall to me I will take him, but I typically like to take the value you get selecting a quarterback in the mid rounds. For example, last year in one of my leagues I was the last team to draft a quarterback and ended up with Ben Roethlisberger. Value is there in drafting a QB in the later rounds and I think it will be again this season. Guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler are all guys that I think could have good seasons for where they might be drafted.

Very Preliminary Top 6 RBs
1. C. Johnson
2. R. Rice
3. ADP
4. MJD
5. S. Greene
6. R. Grant
7. S. Jackson
8. J. Charles

My two cents…
I am sure that a couple of people will think that I am a bit nuts with Greene at No. 5. Part of me thinks I am as well. However, the moves they have made this offseason along with the continued development of Sanchez should make it pretty hard for teams to key on the run. One thing I did notice in doing this list is that there were a lot of guys that I really wanted to include. I really like the depth at running back this year and the value I think you can get in later rounds.

Random Thought

At some point somebody really should tell Josh McDaniels that having All-Pro level
players on offense isn’t a bad thing. This might be why Eddie Royal had such a horrible season last year, he didn’t want to get traded.

Thoughts? Comments? Jokes?

With the NFL draft right around the corner it is time to dust off the old notebook, check the batteries on the calculator and start putting together some lists. Vacation is over.

I haven’t checked with the big-shots on what their plans moving ahead are, but several weeks ago I got the green light to blog away on the front page. I won’t spend much time on the NFL draft as I’m a big believer that you can’t really pass out grades for the draft until at least two years after the fact and I would be doing little more than guessing on how goes where. What I will be doing is looking at some of the winners and losers from the free agency period and looking at some early season sleepers and busts I’m targeting.

A Couple of Random Bits

I was pretty high on Shonn Greene over the last quarter of the season and am even higher on him since the Jets dumped Thomas Jones. It is as clear a sign you need that Greene is the team’s primary back. I’m a bit confused though why so many people think the Jets made a mistake in dumping Jones and signing LaDainian Tomlinson. The main argument people have been making is that Jones has more in the tank and is thus the better running back. You would get no argument on that from me. Although, I would point out Jones’s 2.6 ypc average during the play-offs that he may be hitting the wall just as hard as LT. What people are missing is that Jones and Greene have two very similar skill sets. What the team needs is a back that can spell Greene and serve as a receiver out of the backfield. I think the Jets could have done better than LT, Chester Taylor comes to mind, but for what they need LT is the better choice.

I’ve seen more than a couple of people giving Jimmy Clausen props for how professional he was in talking with Todd McShay. What exactly were people expecting? Are expectations that low for professional athletes? I will admit that a re-run of this would have been highly entertaining.

That will do it for now. I will be back later this week with a first look at my preliminary top eight at each position so check back so you can be the first to tell me how stupid I am.

Good to see nobody trashed the place while I was gone. I was going to mimic a lot of NFL teams and sit out this week, but I worried about the wrath of the 411 competition committee (who has as much bite as the NFL competition committee). Anyway here are my rankings.

QB

1. B. Favre

2. E. Manning

3. B. Roethlisberger

4. M. Schaub

5. “MVP Candidate” V. Young

RB

1. C. Johnson

2. F. Gore

3. J. Stewart

4. MJD

5. R. Rice

WR

1. A. Johnson

2. S. Smith (nyg)

3. R. White

4. S. Rice

5. S. Holmes

TE

1. J. Witten

2. V. Davis

3. V. Shiancoe

4. H. Miller

5. J. Carlson

D/ST

1. 49ers

2. Titans

3. Bears

4. Broncos

5. Redskins

K

1. R. Longwell

2. D. Ackers

3. K. Brown

4. B. Cundiff

5. R. Bironas

Questions

1. B. Roethlisberger

2. J. Stewart

3. S. Holmes

4. Titans

5. R. Rice

Mock away.

QB

1. A. Rodgers – Only the Falcons have been worse defending against the QB position over the last five.

2. M. Schuab

3. T. Brady – The injuries worry me, but the Jags are awful on the road.

4. P. Rivers – The Titans ruined this pick for me.

5. K. Warner

RB

1. C. Benson – Last week proved that the Chiefs are allergic to tackling.

2. F. Gore

3. C. Johnson – Everybody is jumping on the Chargers bandwagon, but they really need to fix their run D if they are planning on making a run at the SB.

4. A. Peterson

5. S. Jackson – They really should shut him down for the season.

WR

1. A. Johnson – Best WR in football going against a green Miami secondary.

2. R. Moss

3. G. Jennings – I could easily see Driver doing more, but Jennings won my coin flip.

4. W. Welker – Hedging my bets a bit with picking two Pats.

5. M. Austin – I wanted to pick him last week, but didn’t have the guts. I’ll pick him this week and he will fall flat…bet on it.

TE

1. J. Finley – Top three TE next season, top five this week.

2. A. Gates – Wish Gates was playing like this at the start of the season.

3. D. Clark

4. V. Shiancoe

5. J. Carlson – Not too comfortable with this pick as it really looks like Seattle has thrown in the towel, but I really like the match-up.

K

1. S. Graham

2. R. Longwell

3. G. Hartley

4. N. Kaeding

5. S. Suisham

Def/ST

1. Packers

2. 49ers

3. Cardinals

4. Bengals

5. Vikings

Questions

1. Flacco

2. Wells

3. Holmes

4. Cleveland

5. Grant

Mock away in the comments

I don’t have children, but I would bet Conn’s and Thitoff’s kids that if any other player in the NFL refused to leave a game that the media would loose their minds (I wanted a much stronger word there, but this is a family site and all). Mike Ditka would be on Monday Night Countdown claiming he would fight a player that did that to him…and he probably would. PTI would eviscerate said player…and rightfully so.

However, that player happened to be Brett Favre and *Rules 1-17 when covering the NFL is ‘Thou shall not question Brett Favre’. People can argue as much as they want about if taking Favre out was the right move, I don’t think it was, but the bottom line is that Brad Childress is the head coach. If the head coach tells you to sit, you sit. I think an even bigger issue is how at ease Favre was with admitting that Childress wanted to take him out and Favre basically told him to bugger off. That doesn’t show a whole lot of respect for the coach and when your quarterback doesn’t show much respect for the coach other players are likely to follow. If Randy Moss or Terrell Owens pulled such a move, they would be crucified.

After the Colts Week 15 win against the Jaguars, Peyton Manning was asked about the pull between an undefeated season Vs. resting for the play-offs. Manning simply said that he wanted to go for it, but that Caldwell was the coach and you do what the coach said. Favre probably would have responded with a laugh and reminded the interviewer that it was Favre who really ran things not some silly coach (yes, Favre would speak about himself in the third person).

For those not up to date on the story, click here.

*Rule No. 18 when discussing Brett Favre is that you have to use the term ‘gunslinger’ some place.