I had big plans for a draft guide. It was going to be huge. It was going to set the industry standard for years to come. It was going to get me a gig at ESPN and allow me to blow loserville. I assumed that everybody was one board because not a single staff writer or intern objected to my ambitious plans. Imagine my surprise when Mr. Conn and Mr. Thitoff informed me that I was the staff and we had no interns. Long story short, there will be no official draft guide from us this season. I do what to get my thoughts and predictions on the official record so over the next couple of weeks I will be doing so here. It might be a bit disjointed, it will be filled with typos and the editing with be terrible, but I hope that it helps you on your way to fantasy glory this season. At the very least it allows you a chance to mock my picks. Enough chit-chat….

The first thing that I do when I am putting together my cheat sheet is look at how things went down over the last eight weeks of the previous season. I ignore, for the most part, the playoffs as they are different animal. Mr. Conn disagrees with me on this, but we are talking about a guy who once made a tuna fish and Prego sandwich. Anyways,  looking at the last eight weeks of the regular season can help you spot some trends over the last half of the season that you ignored/forgot as well as help shape your draft strategy. You have to be careful as the trends can be misleading at times, as I’ll show later, but it is a great place to start.

Tampa Bay Quarterback Josh Freeman – If your draft strategy is to wait till the middles rounds before you start targeting your quarterback Freeman is a nice option to keep on your radar. Freeman finished the second half of the 2010 season with 15 touchdown passes (3rd most) and was the No. 5 fantasy quarterback. Over the last eight weeks he tossed at least two touchdowns in four games and threw at least one touchdown in all eight. He isn’t going to carry your team as he had zero 300-yard passing games and only one game with more than two touchdown passes for the season, but his steady and consistent production makes him a very nice commodity to have.

Buffalo Bills Running Back Fred Jackson – Over the last eight weeks of the season Jackson outscored Cleveland Browns Peyton Hillis, Tennessee Titans Chris Johnson and Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson. Smart money is that unless there is an injury that won’t happen again, but as the 30th running back off the board he present nice value. In the second half of the 2010 season Jackson was 9th in rushing yards while average 4.4 yards per carry. I like Jackson a lot in deeper leagues as flex option and as depth to the running back position. C.J. Spiller could cut into some of Jackson’s touches this season, but with an ADP in the late eight round he is worth taking a flyer on.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver Mike Wallace – I’m all-in on Wallace this season. The Steelers wide receiver finished the second half of 2010 as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver. Over the last eight weeks of the season he had five games with at least 100 yards receiving and only once failed to hit the 75 yard receiving mark. Wallace’s value takes a bit of a hit in PPR (points per reception) leagues, but his 21 yards per catch average from last season means he only needs a couple of completion to be a solid contributor to your team. Wallace finished sixth overall in scoring at the position and could see a repeat or even an improvement on that with Ben Roethlisberger not having to serve a suspension to start the season (so far).

New York Giants Wide Receiver Mario Manningham – With a touchdown reception in each of his last five games Manningham finished the second half of 2010 as the league’s No. 5 fantasy wide receiver. With Steve Smith now with the Eagles, Manningham is the team’s clear No. 2 wide receiver and will see few double teams with Hakeem Nicks on the other side. Manningham is currently the 28^th wide receiver off most draft boards giving him nice value as a No. 2 or strong No. 3 wide receiver for your team.

As I mentioned above looking at the last eight weeks can sometimes be misleading. Matt Cassel is a perfect example of this. Over the last eight weeks of 2010 Cassel was ranked No. 8 in scoring at the quarterback position. However, it is important to note that five of those games came against teams that ranked in the top 11 in points given up to the quarterback position. In other words, those stats are a bit inflated. The Chiefs offense is likely to be focused around running backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones and not on the arm of Cassel.

That should take care of things for now. Over the next couple of weeks I plan on doing mini-breakdowns at each position, cover some sleepers /bust and go out on a limb with some predictions for the season. Feel free to use the comments if you want to mock some of my picks or simply want to let me know how awesome I am.

Week 11 Preview – Match-ups To Know

All stats are based off the last four weeks unless otherwise stated.

Chicago Bears At Miami Dolphins

Neither RB Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown are averaging more than 11 carries per game over the last month and both are weak plays against a Bears defense giving up an average of 78 yards rushing per game to the position.

Baltimore Ravens At Carolina Panthers

The Ravens defense used to be one of the most feared in fantasy football. Recently, they have struggled defending against the pass. As a unit they are giving up 308 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. WR Steve Smith has been one of the bigger busts of the season, but has a good match-up this week with the Ravens giving up the most points to opposing wide receivers over the last month. Despite the good match-ups, start a Carolina Panther at your own risk.

Both WR Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason had touchdown receptions last week against the Atlanta Falcons, but face tough match-ups against a Panthers defense that is giving up just 113 yards receiving and 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game to the position.

Houston Texans At New York Jets

QB Mark Sanchez could be an option for fantasy owners with injury troubles at the quarterback position. Over the last month Sanchez has averaged 297 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game. The Texans have given up 301 yards passing and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game. WR Santonio Holmes should be considered a decent No. 2 wide receiver this week with the Texans giving up 188 yards receiving and 1.3 receiving touchdowns per game.

Good match-ups for the Texans will be tough to come by this week. The Jets defense ranks in the top 10 defending against the quarterback position and in the top five defending against the running back and wide receiver positions.

Arizona Cardinals At Kansas City Chiefs

Both RB Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles have good match-ups this week against a Cardinals defense giving up 111 yards rushing and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position. Charles is the most valuable of the two, getting the majority of the carries and yardage. WR Dwayne Bowe has been a must start over the last month averaging 87 yards receiving and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Bowe has scored at least one touchdown in five straight games and faces a Cardinals offense giving up 223 yards receiving and 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game.

Since regaining his starting position at quarterback Derek Anderson has averaged 245 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game. Anderson faces a Chiefs defense this week giving up 243 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game.

Washington Redskins At Tennessee Titans

Even with the addition of WR Randy Moss the Titans will remain a run-first offense, but QB Michael Vick and the Eagles offense showed Monday night how weak the Redskins are against the pass. Over the last month the Redskins rank in the top three in points given up to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.

The Titans have given up 93 yards rushing per game and under four yards per carry over the last month. RB Kelland Williams is likely to get the start and bulk of the carries, and is best used only as a flex play. The Titans are the sixth ranked defense against the wide receiver position giving up just 138 yards receiving and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game. Santana Moss is a weak play.

Buffalo Bills At Cincinnati Bengals

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the best waiver-wire pick-ups this season averaging 263 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns over the last month. But with the Bengals giving up only 216 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game over the same period of time, looking at other options this week could be a good move. WRs Steve Johnson and Lee Evans have both been good plays for fantasy owners over the last month. Both players have good match-ups this week against the Bengals who are giving up 160 yards receiving and 1.3 touchdowns per game to the position.

Oakland Raiders At Pittsburgh Steelers

You won’t find a good match-up on the Steelers roster with the Raiders ranking in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. Your regular Steelers starters are still worth a play, but their value should be downgraded this week.

The Steelers have struggled defending against the pass over the last month in giving up the sixth most points to the quarterbacks and seventh most points to wide receivers per game. RB Darren McFadden has turned into a must start at running back regardless of match-up, but faces the leagues second best defense defending against the position.

Cleveland Browns At Jacksonville Jaguars

Over the last month the Browns have been one of the league’s best defending against the running back position giving up just 84 yards rushing per game and zero touchdowns to the position. RB Maurice Jones Drew should be considered a weak No. 2 running back this week.

RB Peyton Hillis is averaging 112 yards rushing per game over the last month and has a nice match-up against a Jaguars defense ranked seventh in points given up to the running back position per game.

Detroit Lions At Dallas Cowboys

Both WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin found the end zone while totaling 104 and 68 receiving yards respectively last week. They could struggle to duplicate those number against a Lions secondary giving up only 142 yards receiving and 0.3 touchdowns per game to the position.

There are plenty of good match-ups for the Lions against a Cowboys defense that ranks in the top 10 in points given up per game to the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Green Bay Packers At Minnesota Vikings

You start RB Adrian Peterson regardless of his match-up, but it isn’t a good one this week with the Packers giving up just 90 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game. QB Brett Favre has just one game passing for over 300 yards and has thrown nine picks in his last four games. Things aren’t likely to get easier this week against a Packers defense giving up only 217 yards passing and 0.7 touchdowns per contest.

Seattle Seahawks At New Orleans Saints

The Saints are expecting RB Reggie Bush to return to the line-up this week against the Seahawks. While he won’t get all the carries he does have a great match-up against a Seahawks defense giving up 137 yards rushing, 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game and over five yards per carry over the last month.

The fantasy options on the Seahawks are usually limited and are even more so this week against a Saints defense ranked 1st against the quarterback and wide receiver positions while ranking 7th defending against the running back position.

Atlanta Falcons At St. Louis Rams

The Falcons have struggled defending against the pass over the last month. During this period of time they have given up the 5th most points per game to the quarterback position and the 2nd most points per game to the wide receiver position. As bad as the Falcons have been against the pass, they have been equally good defending against the run. Over the last month they have allowed just 71 yards rushing per game and zero rushing touchdowns.

QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White face tough match-ups this week with the Rams ranking 8th defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver positions.  White is a must start regardless of match-up while Ryan should be considered a mid-tier No. 2 quarterback this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers At San Francisco 49ers

QB Troy Smith had over 300 yards passing and one touchdown in his second straight start with the 49ers last week. Those numbers are going to be tough to duplicate with the Bucs giving up only 214 yards passing and 1.4 touchdown passes per game. WR Michael Crabtree has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, but hasn’t had more than 61 yards receiving in a game since Week 5. Crabtree, like Smith, has a tough match-up with the Bucs defense giving up only 149 yards receiving and 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game. Over the last month the Bucs have given up 115 yards rushing and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per contest giving RB Frank Gore a nice match-up.

QB Josh Freeman ranks 11th in points scored among quarterbacks in ESPN standard leagues this year. He has a match-up this week that could see him pushing into the top 10 with the 49ers giving up 309 yards passing and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game. Mike Williams has been a nice No. 2 wide receiver for fantasy owners this season and has a shot at a strong game this week against the 49ers. The last month has seen the 49ers give up 234 yards receiving and 1.3 touchdown receptions to opposing wide receivers per game. RB LaGarrette Blount could struggle to duplicate his Week 10 numbers against a 49ers defense giving up just 65 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdown per game to the running back position.

Indianapolis Colts At New England Patriots

QB Peyton Manning struggled against the Bengals last week with only 185 yards passing and zero touchdowns. He should bounce back nicely this week with the Patriots giving up 298 yards passing and 1.3 passing touchdown per game. If RB Joseph Addai can return to the team’s starting line-up he makes a strong No. 2 option for fantasy owners. The Patriots are giving up 96 yards rushing, 84 yards receiving and 1.3 offensive touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.

New York Giants At Philadelphia Eagles

RB LeSean McCoy has been a strong flex play or decent No. 2 fill-in at running back for most of the season. With the Giants giving up only 62 yards rushing per game and zero touchdowns over the last month to opposing running backs looking at other options could be wise.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw should be considered a strong No. 2 running back this week. Over the last month the Eagles rank 9th in points per game to the running back position.

Denver Broncos At San Diego Chargers

QB Phillip Rivers has only two games this season where he has thrown for less than two touchdowns and has thrown for at least 300 yards five times. Rivers should be in line for another big week against a Broncos secondary giving up 290 yards passing and 2.3 touchdown passes per game. If the passing game falters, the Broncos are even worse defending against the run. No other team in the league has given up more points per game to the running back position than the Denver Broncos.

QB Kyle Orton and the Broncos passing game faces a tough match-up against the Chargers defense who rank in the top 10 defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

ahelbling@411fantasy.com

Week 7 Preview

By Adam Helbling

All stats used are over the last four weeks of the season unless stated otherwise.

Cincinnati Bengals At Atlanta Falcons
The Bengals defense has played well over the last four weeks of the season. They rank in the top 5 in defending against both quarterbacks and wide receivers. Matt Ryan is a smart avoid this week and White should only be counted on as a mid-tier No. 2 receiver.

While Carson Palmer has a decent match-up against the Falcons secondary, which is giving up 278 yards passing per game, it has done well in forcing INTs, an area where Palmer has struggled this season.  Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco should be able to produce this week against a defense ranked in the bottom 10 defending against the wide receiver position. Cedric Benson and the Bengals running game face an uphill battle with the Falcons giving up only 66 yards rushing and zero touchdowns.

Sleeper Pick
Michael Jenkins – Don’t look for him to repeat his Week 6 performance, but with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez attracting most of the attention from opposing defenses Jenkins could serve as a No. 3 option in deeper leagues.

Pittsburgh Steelers At Miami Dolphins

With the Steelers ranking in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions counting on any Dolphins player to carry your team could be a mistake.

Ben Roethlisberger had a good showing in his season debut against the Browns throwing for 257 yards and two scores. He should be able to turn in another solid week against the Dolphins who are giving up 240 yards passing and 1.67 touchdowns per game.

Sleeper Pick

Davone Bess – Bess has had at least five receptions in four of his five starts this season and has had at least 85 yards receiving and/or a touchdown in his last three.

Buffalo Bills At Baltimore Ravens

The Bills haven’t given up a lot of yards through the air, but have given up nearly three touchdowns per game. This gives Flacco a nice match-up, but look for the Ravens to pound the ball with Ray Rice against a Bills defense giving up 197 yards rushing, 1.3 touchdowns and 5.4 yards per carry.

Fantasy owners looking to Ryan Fitzpatrick as a bye week start should look elsewhere. The Bills quarterback has averaged over two passing touchdowns per game, but faces a top 10 Ravens pass defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars At Kansas City Chiefs

We recommended fantasy owners taking a look at both Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe last week and both came through. You might want to do so again as they face a Jaguars defense that are among the worst at defending against the wide receiver and quarterback position. The Jaguars have done well defending against the running back position, giving up only 77 yards rushing per game. However, much of their success against the run might have to do with teams simply focusing on their passing game.

The Chiefs have done well defending against the pass, but have been one of the worst defending against opposing running backs. The Chiefs have given up 154 offensive yards per game to opposing running backs. Fantasy owners should take note that 63 of those offensive yards have come via the pass.

Sleeper Pick

Chiefs Defense – Only owned in 22 percent of fantasy leagues, the Chiefs defense could be facing a Jaguars offense without their top two quarterbacks.

Cleveland Browns At New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees  threw for 263 yards and three scores last week against the Buccaneers. Another big game could be in the cards this week against a Browns defense giving up 269 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per game. The Saints spread the ball around too much at wide receiver to count on any one player to carry your team, but it is a good match-up for the group with the Browns ranked in the bottom 5 in defending against the position. Chris Ivory made his case for a bigger role in the team’s running game even when Pierre Thomas comes back by rushing for 158 yards last week. While the Browns have allowed only one rushing touchdown all season, they are giving up 4.6 yards per carry over the last four weeks.

Sleeper Pick

Ivory – His value takes a hit if Thomas is available, but he has yet to test his ankle in practice and with Ivory playing well the Saints won’t be in a hurry to bring him back.

Washington Redskins At Chicago Bears

Matt Forte had just 11 yards rushing last week, a career low. His prospects this week are much better with the Redskins giving up over five yards per carry.

With the emergence of Ryan Torain the Redskins don’t have to lean so heavily on Donovan McNabb to win games, which will be good news against a Bears defense that ranks in the top 5 defending against quarterbacks and top 10 defending against wide receivers.

San Francisco 49ers At Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have been one of the league’s best teams defending against the pass, mainly because they are equally bad against the run. As a unit they are giving up 145 yards rushing, one touchdown and 4.5 yards per carry. Frank Gore should be considered a strong No. 1 running back this week.

St. Louis Rams At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No team in the league is giving up more yards per carry than the Bucs (6.5). Steven Jackson had over 100 yards and a score last week and faces a great match-up against a team giving up 178 yards rushing and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position.

Philadelphia Eagles At Tennessee Titans

Kenny Britt has scored a touchdown in four straight starts despite playing in the team’s run first offense. Don’t look for a fifth as the Eagles rank in the top 10 defending against the position and have allowed just one touchdown to the position over the last month.

LeSean McCoy owners might want to take a look at their depth this week as he faces the third best run defense against over the last month. As a unit the Titans defense is giving up just 75 yards a game to opposing running backs.

Sleeper Pick

Jason Avant – With DeSean Jackson likely out, Avant should see more targets come his way.

Arizona Cardinals At Seattle Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch got the bulk of the carries and a touchdown in his first game with the Seahawks. His role and his numbers could expand this week with the Cardinals giving up 128 yards rushing, one rushing touchdown and 4.5 yards per carry to the running back position.

The Cardinals passing game has been disappointing all season with Derek Anderson struggling and now rookie Max Hall. But the Seahawks rank in the bottom five defending against both the quarterback and wide receiver position and with the bye week to prepare, Fitzgerald and the Cardinals passing game has a nice match-up.

Sleeper Pick

Hall – I like the team coming off the bye week and playing against a poor pass defense.

New England Patriots At San Diego Chargers

Opposing wide receivers haven’t had too much of a problem exposing the young Patriots secondary as they have are giving up 190 yards receiving and on touchdown per game to the position.

Downgrade the value of all the Patriot skill players this week as the Chargers rank in the top 5 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver position.

Sleeper Pick

Patrick Crayton/Buster Davis – Even with the number of injuries in the team’s passing game, I don’t expect the Chargers to be hesitant throwing against a questionable secondary.

Oakland Raiders At Denver Broncos

The Raiders have done well in limiting yards to opposing quarterbacks, but are giving up two touchdowns per game to the position. Kyle Orton has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of six games this season and faces another good match-up. The Broncos don’t run the ball enough for fantasy owners to lean too heavily on any running back option, but Knowshon Moreno could make a strong flex option against a Raiders defense giving up 150 yards rushing and 5.5 yards per carry per game to the running back position.

Running backs facing the Broncos have had productive games of late. Over the last month the team is in the bottom 10 in defending the position, allowing 114 yards rushing and 1.25 touchdowns per game. While it is a good match-up for the Raiders, Darren McFadden might return this week and split carries with Michael Bush limiting both players value.

Minnesota Vikings At Green Bay Packers

The Vikings rank in the top 10 defending against opposing wide receivers giving up just 75 yards and one touchdown per game. Greg Jennings finally posted the type of numbers fantasy owners expected, but looking for him to do it two weeks in a row might be asking too much.

The Packers are struggling to overcome a number of injuries and nowhere is that more evident than their numbers against opposing quarterbacks. Over the last month they are giving up 285 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game ranking them in the bottom 10 defending against the position. Those numbers could get better this week with the expected return of Clay Matthews this Sunday. Consider Brett Favre a No. 2 quarterback this week.

New York Giants At Dallas Cowboys

The Giants defense ranks in the top 10 defending against the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Look for the Giants to continue to lean more on their running game over the pass against a Cowobys defense that ranks in the top 10 defending against opposing quarterbacks. Over the last month the Cowboys are giving up under 200 yards passing and 1.33 passing touchdowns per game.

Since I like to write about things that are exactly fantasy football related….

I really liked this article from Ann Killion on Mike Singletary. When Singletary first came into the league I was a big fan. I mean how can you not like this….

The problem is that after the initial reaction to Singletary’s theater has subsided you are left with a coach that really does seem out of his league. Killion mentions in the article that Singletary has a vision of who he wants the 49ers to be and not surprisingly that vision is of the ‘85 Bears. There are a number of problems with this, but I’ll just focus on the major one. No team playing like the ‘85 Bears is going to be a consistent winner in today’s NFL. The league has simply changed too much. Compare the number of 4k passers from ‘85 to last season. In ‘85 there was one 4k passer. Last season there were 11. The ‘85 Bears would commit so many penalties on defense that they would never get off the field and their offense would have a tough time trying to keep up.

Do you think a GM in 1985 would hire a coach that wanted to build his team like the 1960 Philadelphia Eagles?

I feel pretty good about my picks this week, which means certain disaster. If you wanna get in on the fun, click here.

Quarterbacks

1. P. Manning

2. A. Rodgers

3. T. Brady

4. M. Vick – One of these days Vick is going to play a decent pass defense, but it isn’t happening this week.

5. D. Brees

Running Back

1. C. Johnson

2. M. Turner

3. A. Foster

4. F. Gore

5. LT – I really really wanted to pick Mathews here. While I think the Jets look to get Greene going this week, LT will still get goal line carries and I doubt Mathews does.

Wide Receiver

1. B. Marshall

2. D. Jackson

3. R. White

4. G. Jennings

5. R. Wayne – Gut call between A. Collie and Wayne. I hate my gut.

Tight End

1. A. Gates

2. D. Clark

3. D. Keller

4. J. Finley

5. Z. Miller – I love the switch to Gradkowski and only the Saints have given up more points to the TE position.

Kickers

1. M. Crosby

2. N. Kaeding

3. D. Akers

4. R. Gould

5. N. Folk

Defense

1. Jets

2. Bengals

3. Packers

4. Steelers

5. Ravens

Questions

1. C. Henne

2. J. Forsett

3. M. Floyd

4. Tenn

5. L. Moore

Mock away in the comments if you wish.

I feel bad that I don’t use this here blog thingy more often. Each week there is a ton of stuff that I wish I had time to write something about and each week I seem to let most of it fall through the cracks. I wish I had a really great excuse, but I don’t really. Sure, I’m busy, but so are the rest of you. Regardless here are my two cents on things that I wish I had the time to write about.

Michael Vick takes over as starter – This was probably the biggest bit of news this week.  For those of you who followed the Sunday Scramble last weekend I had this to say.

Bling (12:33) – Kolb has been cleared to return to practice starting Weds. I don’t care what Vick does today, Kolb will be the starter Week 3 if available.

Nothing like being totally wrong on something eh? I can take some comfort in not being the only one who got this wrong as that was what Andy Reid was saying right up till Tuesday when he named Vick the starter. The consensus seems to be that Andy Reid made the right choice, but you can put me down on the other side of that coin.

Many writers and pundits have stated that Reid made this move in the best interest of Kolb. The thinking being that the fans would start getting on Kolb after his first poor throw. I don’t doubt that thinking, but the reality is that is always going to be the case. We are, after all, talking about a fan base that booed McNabb on draft day. Derek Anderson could be the No. 2 for the Eagles and the fans would be singing his praises after the first Kolb interception. Kolb isn’t some rookie the guy is 26-years old. If the team feels as if they need to bench the guy they have called their franchise quarterback for fear that the Philly fans are going to hurt his fee-fees they may as well trade him now.

And lets be honest about something, Vick hasn’t exactly had a rough go as the team’s starter. Sure, he led a come-back in the second half against the Packers, but the Packers were hardly coming at Vick like they were at Kolb. Vick also had the benefit of the team’s half-time adjustments. In Week 2 he faced the Lions. If one of the benchmarks of being an NFL starter is the ability to carve up the Lions, I demand at least a practice squad spot.

Roster Stashing – I mentioned in my Out On A Limb article prior to the start of the season that I didn’t think Fitz would end the season as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver. He currently is 18th overall in ESPN scoring and is probably lucky to even be that high. If you have seen even a small portion of the Cardinals first two games the problem is rather obvious….Derek Anderson. If you play in a deep league where you start two quarterbacks stashing Max Hall on your roster might not be the worst idea in the world.

Some other guys worth a stash on your roster….Chris Ivory, Keiland Williams, Kareem Huggins. All of them a long-shots, but it wouldn’t be the first time a long shot paid off in fantasy football.

Buy Low/Sell High – The first three weeks is one of the best times to take advantage of owners in 0-2 panic mode and those over/under valuing players. I was pretty high on S. Greene to start the season. I still think he has plenty of value, especially as the season moves forward. You could get him dirt cheap right now and I think he makes a great flex option in deeper leagues with plenty of upside. Michael Turner is another guy I was  high on to start the season and am still pretty high on him. He had the start of a nice game last week before a groin injury sidelined him. The Falcons said he could have come back if the game were close, so don’t worry too much about the injury prone label some might be putting on him. One guy I would sell high on is D. McFadden. Bush is coming back and while he will be the No. 2 I think he steals some carries and value.

That is it for this past week. Be sure to check out the Sunday Scramble starting at 11 for plenty of fantasy updates and be sure to check-out our Experts Contest.

By Adam Helbling:

Another shortened version of Risk Management this week, but look for it to return to its regular form next week as we gain more data to dig through.

Strong Plays

Moss - no the other one - might surprise some owners this year (photo by Zimbio.com)

Quarterbacks Kevin Kolb/Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles – Kolb’s debut as the team’s No. 1 didn’t go so well. Knocked out of the game at half-time due to a concussion, Kolb finished the day with just 41 yards passing. Vick had a much more successful day replacing Kolb at halftime finishing with 186 yards passing, one touchdown and 103 yards rushing. Owners will have to keep an eye on Kolb who isn’t expected to practice until Friday at the earliest. Either quarterback makes a good start against a Lions defense that gave up 382 yards passing and two touchdowns to Jay Cutler Week 1.

Quarterback Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens - Flacco played well against the New York Jets defense throwing for 263 yards, but without any touchdowns it was a let down for his owners.  This week he faces a Cincinnati Bengals defense that gave up 258 yards passing and three touchdowns to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Consider him a strong play this week.

Running Back Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants -  Bradshaw looks to have a pretty firm grasp as the team’s No. 1 running back getting the bulk of the carries while totaling 76 yards rushing and one touchdown last week against the Carolina Panthers. Brandon Jacobs totaled a disappointing 44 yards on 12 carries. I like both this week against a Colts defense that gave up 260 yards rushing and three touchdowns to the Texans’ running backs last week. Bradshaw should make a solid No. 2 running back this week, while Jacobs could serve as a weak flex play.

Running Back Stephen Jackson, Saint Louis Rams – Jackson had only 81 yards rushing last week as the Cardinals forced Rams rookie quarterback Sam Bradford to try and beat them.  The Raiders will look to duplicate that recipe this week, but are likely in for a tougher go. Last week the Raiders gave up 175 yards rushing, three touchdowns and 5.5 yards per carry to the Titans’ running backs.

Wide Receiver Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – Moss was on many fantasy pundits radar as a fantasy football sleeper heading into the season. He had 77 yards receiving against the Cowboys last week and could make an even stronger case this week against a Texans defense that gave up 317 yards receiving and two touchdowns to the Colts wide receivers last week. Consider Moss a weak No. 2 or strong No. 3 wide receiver option this week.

WEAK PLAYS

Crabtree's slow start likely to continue (photo by upi.com)

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – With the Bengals playing catch-up for most of the game against the Patriots last week Palmer threw the ball 50 times and rewarded his owners with 349 yards passing and two touchdowns. He faces a tougher test this weekend against a Ravens defense that gave up only 88 yards passing to Mark Sanchez. Palmer’s numbers last week are likely to be his high of the season and numbers he will struggle to duplicate this week.

Running Back Fred Taylor, New England Patriots - With the team trading Laurence Maroney to the Denver Broncos fantasy owners should feel more comfortable with Taylor continuing to get the bulk of the work in New England. Last week Taylor totaled 71 yards rushing yards  making him a decent flex play for his owners. Don’t count on a repeat of that this week as he faces a Jets defense that gave up just 47 yards rushing, one touchdown and only 1.5 yards per carry to the Ravens’ running backs.

Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – The Colts all but abandoned their running game against the Texans last week as they played most of the game from behind. Addai finished the game with just 10 carries for 44 yards. I expect better numbers from Addai as the season moves forward, but don’t look for it this week against a Giants defense that gave up just 74 yards rushing and 3.5 yards per carry against the running back position last week.

Wide Receiver Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ward turned in a strong performance last week against the Atlanta Falcons recording six receptions from seven targets and 108 yards receiving. Ward should continue to be the leader in passing targets for the Steelers, but faces a tougher task this week against the Titans who gave up only 58 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers last week. Ward should be considered a No. 3 wide receiver this week.

Wide Receiver, Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers -  The 49ers and Crabtree’s performance against the Seattle Seahawks last week has to have both fans and owners wonder if all the off season accolades were premature. The worry is likely to continue for another week as the face the New Orleans Saints Week 2 and a defense that gave up just 56 yards receiving and zero touchdowns to the Vikings’ wide receivers last week.

I spent most of yesterday hearing about how the Lions got robbed. Three of the four guys on Around The Horn, both guys on PTI and my local sportscasters all made it one of their favorite topics. Everybody seems to agree that it was the correct call to make, it was, but yet everybody seems to want to label it as a controversial call. It can’t be both folks. The rule might be controversial, but the call certainly wasn’t.  The bottom line is that had Calvin Johnson not hot-dogged the catch or had been in such a hurry to celebrate the Lions would have won.

For those who missed it, prior to the game last night Vikings and Saints players stepped on the field and held up their index finger in what looked like the typical ‘We are No. 1’ thingy. It wasn’t. What it was was a salute to each other and a supposed message to the owners that they were unified about the looming lock out next season. Mike Golic and Marcellus Wiley had an interesting exchange on the whole thing on Mike and Mike which you can listen to here.

For those who don’t want to listen to the clip the basic argument was….

Wiley loved it. It was a good way to educate the fans on why there is a looming lock out and it showed that the players support one another. Golic thought it was stupid because fans simply don’t care.

Golic is right. I’m sure there is that 0.1 percent out there that thinks it is unfair the players don’t have better health care and that the owners are cheap for wanting to share less of the NFL pie with the players. The other 99.9 percent of us simply don’t give a damn and how can you blame us. The way Wiley was spinning the whole thing you would have thought this was a story about Latin American banana
farmers who make a dollar a day finally standing up to the man.*

The NFL league minimum in 2009 was around 325k. The median household income in the US is around 52k. When you are making more than six times what the average US household is making and unemployment is hovering around 9.5 percent….just shut up. I read at least three articles in the New York Times over the summer that was about some uber-millionaire who because of the poor economy could only eat out at his favorite four star restaurant every other night. Each time I read one of those articles I wanted to put a pencil through my eye.

Golic is right in that the only thing that I care about with the current labor dispute is that they get the whole mess settled before kick-off next season. I don’t have a dog in this fight. I could care less what either side gets. I just want my football. Keep the rest of the stuff behind closed doors because listening to millionaires fighting over how to divide their billions makes me sick to my stomach. As one listener of Mike and Mike wrote ‘…on the day that Tom Brady agrees to a 72 million dollar contract extension I’m not going to worry about his health care.’ Preach on brother. [/rant]

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

*I have no idea how much a Latin American banana farmer makes per day or if there is a need for them to stand up to the man, but they probably make less than the average NFL player. What I do know is that Latin American Banana Farmers would be an awesome band name. I call copyright.

If you haven’t entered our weekly contest do so by clicking here. Only two guys beat all three of us last season and I am pretty sure Mr. Herbeck was drunk when he did it so that doesn’t count. Anyway, my entry which I will regret seconds after posting.

Quarterbacks
1. A. Rodgers
2. D. Brees
3. T. Romo
4. M. Schaub
5. J. Cutler

Running Backs
1. R. Matthews
2. F. Gore
3. C. Johnson
4. MJD
5. A. Peterson

Wide Receivers
1. G. Jennings
2. M. Austin
3. M. Colston
4. A. Johnson
5. R. White

Tight Ends
1. J. Finley
2. A. Gates
3. V. Davis
4. D. Clark
5. K. Winslow

Kickers
1. R. Bironas
2. N. Kaeding
3. G. Hartley
4. D. Buehler
5. J. Nedney

Defense/Special Teams
1. 49ers
2. Titans
3. Dolphins
4. Cowboys
5. Cardinals

Questions
1. A. Smith
2. C. Portis
3. J. Gaffney
4. Dolphins
5. S. Moss

Feel free to mock me in the comments.