Strong Plays

The following players, due in large part to their matchup this week, all have the potential to out perform their usual numbers. While betting on them to carry your week is a bad bet they are players to target should you be struggling with injuries or bye weeks and could make the difference between a win and a loss.

Baltimore Ravens Quarterback Joe Flacco – Since Week 1 Flacco has alternated from a strong performance to a weak performance. His week-by-week scoring using ESPN standard scoring is 20, 7, 27, 2, 14, 7. Look for another bounce back performance from Flacco as he faces a Cardinals secondary giving up 284 yards passing and 1.67 touchdowns per contest over the last month.

Cincinnati Bengals Quarterback Andy Dalton – Even factoring in Colt McCoy’s 178 yards passing performance, the Seahawks are giving up 296 yards passing and 1.33 passing touchdowns per contest over the last four weeks. Dalton has averaged 247 yards passing and 1.33 touchdowns over the same period of time and could be an option for owners looking to get past the bye week or through injuries.

New Orleans Saints Running Back Darren Sproles – Even with Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas cutting into his carries, Sproles has maintained value especially in PPR leagues. He has averaged 58 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving and 0.25 touchdowns per contest over the last month. Mark Ingram injured his heel last week and is looking like he might miss Sunday’s game, so  Sproles could see a boost in touches. With the Rams giving up 188 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game during the same period of time Sproles could be in for a strong week.

Washington Redskins Running Back Ryan Torain – More than a few fantasy owners started Torain last week only to watch Tim Hightower get the bulk of the carries and Torain total just two. With Hightower out injured, Torain looks to be the team’s No. 1 unless Shanahan decides to throw owners another curve ball. The Redskins running game faces a strong matchup against a Bills defense giving up 121 yards rushing, 1.33 rushing touchdowns and 5.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs over the last month.

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receiver Anquan Boldin – The Cardinals have given up the third most points to opposing wide receivers of the last four weeks of the season. Boldin has averaged 67 yards receiving and 0.33 touchdown receptions per game over the last month. With the Cardinals giving up 277 yards receiving per contest to opposing wide receivers over the last month Boldin is a must start.

Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Jabar Gaffney – Gaffney has averaged seven targets and 62 yards receiving per contest over the last month and with Santana Moss out 5-7 weeks is now the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. With the Bills giving up 215 yards receiving and 0.67 touchdown receptions to opposing wide receivers he should be considered a No. 3 wide receiver with a strong upside this week.

Indianapolis Colts Tight End Dallas Clark – After being a top five pick at tight end Clark has seen his value plummet without Peyton Manning at quarterback. Clark has averaged just 27 yards receiving per game. But the Titans are allowing 75 yards receiving and one touchdown to the position per game over the last month. Clark is an option for players struggling with byes and injuries.

Minnesota Vikings Tight End Visanthe Shiancoe – The Carolina Panthers have given up the second most receiving yards to the tight end position over the last month, making Shiancoe a strong play. He is averaging 42 yards receiving per contest, but more important seven targets per game over the last month.

Week 8 Weak Plays

The following players, due to difficult match-ups, are not expected to perform up to their numbers. While we don’t recommend that you bench the following players, we do recommend making sure you don’t have a better option on your roster.

Quarterbacks

New England Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady – It should go without saying that there are a number of players who regardless of matchup are must starts. Tom Brady is one of those players. Brady is the No. 4 scoring quarterback in standard ESPN scoring and has averaged 278 yards passing and 1.67 passing touchdown per game over the last month. During the same period of time the Steelers have given up the ninth fewest points and under 200 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks. Start Brady, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t hit his usual totals.

Arizona Cardinals Quarterbacks Kevin Kolb – It kinda feels like cheating putting Kolb on this list. If you have been starting Kolb, odds are you have probably started planning for next year’s draft. Still with the number of injuries and byes at the quarterback position some owners might be looking at him as a one week play. Looking elsewhere would be the smart play with the Ravens giving up just 144 yards passing and 0.33 passing touchdowns over the last month.

Philadelphia Eagles Running Back LeSean McCoy – McCoy, like Brady, is a must start regardless of matchup. The Eagles running back has averaged 99 offensive yards and one touchdown per contest over the last month. But the Cowboys have given up the second fewest points per game to opposing running backs during the same period of time.

Cleveland Browns Running Back Peyton Hillis – While limited in practice this week, Hillis is expected to return to the team’s starting lineup this weekend. With Montario Hardesty likely to cut into some of his touches and the 49ers giving up only 58 yards rushing per contest to opposing running backs make sure you don’t have better options.

Arizona Cardinals Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald – Even with the team’s offense struggling, Fitzgerald has has been able to average 82 yards receiving per game. The big problem is that he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3. The Ravens have given up the fourth fewest points to opposing wide receivers over the last month, meaning another rough week for Fitzgerald owners could be on the way.

Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receiver Dwayne Bowe – Bowe has averaged over 100 yards receiving and one touchdown reception per game over the last month. Duplicating those numbers this week will be tough against a Chargers defense giving up just 69 yards receiving per contest to the wide receiver position.

San Diego Chargers Tight End Antonio Gates – In his first game back from injury Gates had 54 yards receiving and one touchdown. Gates is likely to be on a limited snap count and faces a defense that is giving up only 43 yards receiving and zero touchdowns over the last month.

Week 3 Preview

In forming the weekly preview we use stats from the last six weeks of the regular season based on a standard scoring format unless otherwise noted. When looking at the position breakdown the lower the number the better the match-up

Ex. No. 1
Team X
QB – 1
In the above example, team X is currently giving up the most points to the quarterback position.

Ex. No. 2
Team Y
QB – 32
In the above example, team Y is currently giving up the fewest points to the quarterback position.

Jacksonville Jaguars At Carolina Panthers

Jaguars Vs Position
QB -22
RB – 30
WR – 17

Cam Newton is behind only Tom Brady and passing yards this season. The rookie quarterback is averaging 427 yards passing, 1.5 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions per game. Newton is also averaging 36 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game giving him additional value. The Jaguars rank just outside the top 10 defending against the position making it a weak match-up, but consider Newton a No. 1 quarterback this week. With Newton at quarterback Steve Smith has seen a return to his fantasy value. Over the last two weeks Smith has averaged 167 yards receiving and one touchdown receptions per game. Consider Smith a low end No. 1 wide receiver this week.

Panthers Vs Position
QB – 6
RB – 14
WR – 10

Maurice Jones-Drew has been able to hold value even with the unsettled play at quarterback. MJD has averaged 93 yards rushing and scored one rushing touchdown this season. With an average match-up and questions at quarterback, MJD shouldn’t be considered more than a midlevel No. 2 running back this week.

Houston Texans At New Orleans Saints

Texans Vs Position
QB – 29
RB – 31
WR – 19

The Texans numbers vs the quarterback position might look better than they actually are since they played against Kerry Collins and the Colts Week 1, but they held Chad Henne under 200 yards passing last week. Still it is Drew Brees and you start him regardless of match-up. The Texans are the second ranked defense defending against the running back position, but that number doesn’t tell the whole story as they are also giving up 4.8 yards per carry. Darren Sproles is the most valuable of the Saints running backs, especially in PPR leagues. Consider him a strong flex play heading into this week. Play your Saints wide receivers as you normally would this week.

Saints Vs. Position
QB – 11
RB – 15
WR – 9

The Saints have struggled on defense across the board, but most of their struggled have come against the pass. They are giving up 278 yards passing and two touchdown passes per game to the quarterback position, while giving up 180 yards receiving and two touchdown per game to opposing wide receivers. Both Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson should be considered No. 1 options at their position and strong plays. Look for Ben Tate to get the bulk of the carries at running back with Arian Foster still on the mend. Tate should be considered a No. 1 running back this week.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Patriots Vs Position
QB – 2
RB – 11
WR – 2

While the Patriots have one of the best offenses in the NFL, they also have one of the worst defenses. Start your Bills as you normally would and consider them all a strong play this week.

Bills Vs Position
QB – 18
RB – 3
WR – 25

It will be interesting to see how the Patriots offense adjusts with the loss of Aaron Hernandez. Reports are that the tight end could miss anywhere from two to six weeks. The Patriots run more two tight end sets than any other team. Look for more production from the Patriots wide receivers moving forward, but they face a tough match-up this week. Rob Gronkowski should see a bump in targets with Hernandez out and a likely bump in production. The one area on defense where the Bills have struggled is defending against the running back position. Both Ben Jarvis Green Ellis and Danny Woodhead should be considered strong flex plays or low end No. 2 running backs this week.

Miami Dolphins At Cleveland Browns

Miami Vs Position
QB – 3
RB – 18
WR – 4

Colt McCoy shouldn’t be considered as anything more than a No. 2 quarterback this week, but as much as the Dolphins have struggled defending the position he is a strong play. Mohamed Massaquoi is the teams most targeted player and has a good match-up, but shy away from using him unless you have better options as he is averaging just 60 yards receiving and has yet to find the end zone. Peyton Hillis remains the best option on the Browns as a fantasy option, but without a strong match-up he should be considered a midlevel No. 2 running back this week.

Browns Vs Position
QB – 27
RB – 17
WR – 29

Brandon Marshall faces a tough match-up with Cleveland ranking in the top 5 defending against the wide receiver position. The Dolphins wideout is averaging nearly twice the number of touches as any other Dolphins receiver and is averaging over 100 yards per game. Consider Marshall a weak play, but a midlevel No. 2 wide receiver. Running back Daniel Thomas had a strong rookie debut with over 100 yards rushing while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. As long as he receives the bulk of the carries he should be considered a low end No. 2 running back, but is best used as a flex option.

Denver Broncos At Tennessee Titans

Broncos Vs Position
QB – 14
RB – 16
WR – 14

While Kenny Britt is reportedly once again being bothered by a hamstring injury he should still be considered a No. 1 wide receiver this week. The Titans wide receiver is averaging 136 yards receiving and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Chris Johnson hasn’t lived up to his average draft position or his recently signed contract, a situation we warned about in our draft guide. Johnson is averaging just 2.3 yards per carry, but faces a defense that is giving up over five yards per carry. Until Johnson breaks out of his slump consider in a midlevel No. 2 running back.

Titans Vs Position
QB – 31
RB – 12
WR – 32

Brandon Lloyd is expected back this week after missing last week due to a groin injury. It isn’t a good start for him this week against a Titans defense who have given up the fewest points to the wide receiver position. He gets a bump in value in PPR leagues, but don’t consider him as more than a weak No. 3 wide receiver. Eric Decker was a hot pickup this week on waiver wires, but should be considered no more than a No. 3 wide receiver this week and is probably best left on your bench. Even if Knowshon Moreno is able to play this week, Willis McGahee is expected to be the team’s lead back. With the two splitting carries and with the Titans giving up under four yards per carry neither player should be used as more than a flex play.

New York Giants At Philadelphia Eagles

Giants Vs Position
QB – 9
RB – 29
WR – 5

With the number of injuries the Giants have suffered in their secondary Michael Vick and the Eagles wide receivers should be in for big days. Vick has yet to approach the level of production he had last season, but should be considered a No. 1 quarterback and strong play this week with the Giants giving up over 300 yards passing and 1.5 touchdown passes over the first two games of the season. The Giants have given up the fifth most points to opposing wide receivers over the last two weeks so start both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin with confidence.

Eagles Vs Position
QB – 24
RB – 4
WR – 30

Hakeem Nicks is the only wide receiver worth starting this week due to the Giants match-up and the struggling play of Eli Manning. Consider Nicks a low end No. 2 wide receiver and a weak play this week. The Eagles have struggled against the run over the last two weeks, giving up six yards per carry and 150 yards rushing per game to the position. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw should both be considered strong plays and No. 2 running backs this week.

Detroit Lions At Minnesota Vikings

Lions Vs Position
QB – 32
RB – 28
WR – 27

The only player on the Vikings worth a start at this point is Adrian Peterson. Consider Peterson a No. 1 running back, but with the Lions giving up just 84 yards rushing per game to the position he should be considered a weak play.

Vikings Vs Position
QB – 20
RB – 1
WR – 26

The Vikings have given up more points to the running back position than any other team in the league. With Jahvid Best showing last week just how dynamic a running back he can be with over 100 offensive yards and two touchdowns he should be considered a No. 1 running back and strong play this week. Even with a difficult match-up against a Vikings defense that has done well against the pass so far, start the rest of your Lions as you regularly would

San Francisco 49ers At Cincinnati Bengals

49ers Vs Position
QB – 7
RB – 32
WR – 1

Hopefully, you have better options on your roster than Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, but if you don’t both are strong plays this week against the 49ers defense. The smartest play is probably to just pass on all of them this week.

Bengals Vs Position
QB – 21
RB – 21
WR – 21

The only 49er that fantasy owners should consider starting this week is Frank Gore. The Bengals are giving up fewer than four yard per carry so consider him a low end No. 2 running back and a weak play.

New York Jets At Oakland Raiders

Jets Vs Position
QB – 30
RB – 26
WR – 23

Darren McFadden is the second highest scoring running back in fantasy football over the first two weeks of the season. He is currently averaging over five yards per carry and 110 yards rushing per game. He has a weak match-up against the Jets defense who are giving up just 3.3 yards per carry, but he is a must start and should be considered a low end No. 1 running back this week.

Kansas City Chiefs At San Diego Chargers

Chiefs Vs Position
QB – 4
RB – 2
WR – 8

Start your Chargers as you regularly would this week and consider them strong plays against a pretty awful Chiefs defense.

Chargers Vs Position
QB – 13
RB – 25
WR – 24

The only Chief you should consider starting this week is Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs are likely to play from behind and be throwing often. Don’t count on big numbers as the Matt Cassel is averaging just 126 yards passing per game. Consider Bowe a weak play and low end No. 3 wide receiver.

Baltimore Ravens At St. Louis Rams

Ravens Vs Position
QB – 26
RB – 23
WR – 7

Your best option for fantasy value on the Rams this week is at wide receiver. Over the last two weeks the Ravens have given up 237 yards receiving and one touchdown reception per contest to opposing wide receivers. Picking which Ram will have the most value is the hardest part. Mike Sims-Walker, Danario Alexander and Danny Amendola all could serve as low end No. 3 wide receivers this week. As muddled as the wide receiving corps for the Rams is, the best bet is to take a pass on them despite the nice match-up. With both Steven Jackson and Cadillac listed as questionable and playing against a strong Ravens run defense, keeping both on your bench this week is probably the safest and wisest move.

Green Bay Packers At Chicago Bears

Packers Vs Position
QB – 1
RB – 19
WR – 3

If the Bears offensive line can keep Jay Cutler in the game it should be a good one for him. Cutler is averaging 278 yards passing and 1.5 touchdown passes per game. With the Packers giving up over 400 yards passing and two touchdown passes per game consider Cutler a No. 1 quarterback and strong play this week. Matt Forte has been a top five running back over the first two weeks of the season thanks to his involvement in the team’s passing game. Forte is averaging only 58 yards rushing per game, but is averaging over 100 yards receiving per game. Consider Forte a mid level No. 2 running back this week. If you play in a PPR league, consider Forte a No. 1 running back this week.

Arizona Cardinals At Seattle Seahawks

Cardinals Vs Position
QB – 5
RB – 24
WR – 6

Fantasy owners don’t win games by starting Seahawks, but Tavaris Jackson has a great match-up this week.

Seahawks Vs Position
QB – 23
RB – 20
WR – 22

Larry Fitzgerald showed he still had big play ability with his game last week, but until the Cardinals find more consistency on offense owners aren’t going to get full value from either Fitzgerald or Beanie Wells. Still, owner should consider Fitzgerald a low end No. 1 wide receiver. Wells is listed as questionable, but is expected to start. Consider him a low end No. 2 running back.

Atlanta Falcons At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Falcons Vs Position
QB – 10
RB – 8
WR – 11

The Falcons have struggled across the board on defense this season. Start your Buccaneers as your regularly would and consider them all strong plays.

Buccaneers Vs Position
QB – 17
RB – 6
WR – 18

Both Matt Ryan and Roddy White have struggled to start the season. Both have the talent to quickly turn it around, but neither have a particularly strong match-up this week. Still both players should be considered No. 1 starts at their position this week. Mike Turner has had at least 100 yards rushing in his first two games and faces a defense giving up 125 yards rushing per game to the position. Consider Turner a No. 1 running back this week and a strong play.

Pittsburgh Steelers At Indianapolis Colts

Steelers Vs Position
QB – 25
RB – 13
WR – 31

Other than Reggie Wayne, who should be considered a low end No. 2 wide receiver and weak play, pass on your Colts this week if you can.

Colts Vs Position
QB – 28
RB – 5
WR – 28

The Colts numbers defending the pass look better than what they really are with opposing offenses jumping to early leads. The Steelers are likely to do the same so counting on Roethlisberger to be a big contributor this week is a mistake. It could be a big week for Rashard Mendenhall as the Colts are giving up 132 yards rushing and two rushing touchdowns per contest. Consider Mendenhall a No. 1 running back and a strong play.

Washington Redskins At Dallas Cowboys

Redskins Vs Position
QB – 19
RB – 22
WR – 16

The injury bug has hit the Cowboys offense hard this week with Austin Miles, Dez Bryant, Felix Jones and Tony Romo all questionable heading into this Monday Night game. Bryant, Jones and Romo are expected to play according to the most recent reports, but be sure to have back-up options ready should they not go. Jones is best used as only a flex option, Romo should be considered a No. 1 quarterback and Bryant should be considered a mid-level No. 2 wide receiver this week.

Cowboys Vs Position
QB – 15
RB – 27
WR – 16

Dallas is giving up over 250 yards passing and two touchdown passes per game over the first two weeks of the season. Those numbers might be even worse had they played somebody other than Alex Smith and the 49ers last week. Consider Rex Grossman a No. 1 quarterback this week and Santana Moss a No. 2 wide receiver this week.

Buffalo Bills Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick – Fitzpatrick has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each of his first two starts while averaging 236 yards passing per contest. He is currently available in 68 percent of leagues. Fitzpatrick makes a nice low end No. 1 quarterback and a solid bye week fill-in.

Washington Redskins Quarterback Rex Grossman – Grossman is going to get plenty of chances to contribute in the Redskins offense. Over the last two weeks he ranks 6th in passing attempts and has averaged 298 yards passing and two touchdowns per game. He is currently available in over 80 percent of leagues and makes a nice bye week fill-in and spot starter.

Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones –  Jamaal Charles is out for the season with an ACL tear. Neither McCluster nor Thomas Jones is likely to produce at the level of Charles and it is likely to be a running back by committee from this point forward. Jones holds the most value in TD heavy leagues, while McCluster holds more value in PPR leagues. Of the two McCluster holds the most upside, but you don’t want to count on either player as more than a flex play. Jones is available in 40 percent of leagues while McCluster is available in over 90 percent.

Tennessee Titans Wide Receiver Nate Washington – Washington has yet to find the end zone, but has averaged 6.5 receptions and 83 yards receiving per game over the first two weeks. Washington is more of a depth addition at this point, but could serve as a low end No. 3 wide receiver in deeper leagues. Washington is currently available in over 90 percent of leagues.

New Orleans Saints Wide Receiver Devery Henderson – Henderson is often a hit or miss contributor for fantasy owners, but for the first two weeks of the season he has been a hit.  Henderson has had two straight games with 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. He is currently available in nearly 50 percent of leagues polled.

Denver Broncos Wide Receiver Eric Decker – Injuries to Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal led to Decker being the most targeted wide receiver for the Broncos last week. He finished with 9 targets, 5 receptions, 113 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns. His value likely takes a hit once Lloyd and Royal return to 100 percent, but if you have the space he is worth stashing on your roster.

St. Louis Rams Wide Receivers Mike Sims-Walker and Danario Alexander – Sims-Walker was the Rams most targeted wide receiver Monday night against the Giants. He was targeted 11 times finishing with six receptions and 92 yards receiving. Alexander only had three receptions on seven targets, but totaled 122 yards receiving and scored a touchdown. Neither player is worth an immediate start, but if you have the space are worth a roster spot for now.

Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receiver A.J. Green – As a rookie wide receiver and with a rookie starting quarterback A.J. Green is probably going to have some down games. Green had just one reception Week 1, but it was 41 yard touchdown reception. He had 10 receptions, 124 yards receiving and one touchdown reception last week. If you have the roster space, Green is another player worth stashing on your roster.

Buffalo Bills Tight End Scott Chandler – Chandler has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills last two games and has a total of three for the season. His role in the offense is probably going to be limited, but if you are in need to tight end help Chandler could be worth a look. Chandler is currently available in over 90 percent of leagues.

New York Jets Tight End Dustin Keller – Keller has scored a touchdown in each of the teams last two games and is averaging 81 yards receiving and one touchdown per contest. With the weapons the Jets have on offense this level of production isn’t likely to continue, but he makes a good option for owners looking for help at tight end. Keller is currently available in over half of all leagues polled

Week 2 Preview
In forming the weekly preview we use stats from the last six weeks of the regular season based on a standard scoring format unless otherwise noted. When looking at the position breakdown the lower the number the better the match-up

Ex. No. 1
Team X
QB – 1
In the above example, team X is currently giving up the most points to the quarterback position.

Ex. No. 2
Team Y
QB – 32
In the above example, team Y is currently giving up the fewest points to the quarterback position.

Kansas City Chiefs At Detroit  Lions

Chiefs Vs Position
QB – 7
RB – 9
WR -12

Lions Vs Position
QB – 21
RB – 27
WR – 19

The Chiefs defense was a mess against the Bills last week. They gave up over five yards per carry and 112 yards rushing to Fred Jackson as well as four touchdown passes to Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Eric Berry out for the season with a torn ACL it isn’t likely to get much better for them. Start your Lions with confidence this week.

The Lions jumped out to an early lead against the Bucs forcing them to play from behind and abandon the running game. A repeat this week wouldn’t be unexpected so Jamaal Charles owners should be cautious about his production this week.

Oakland Raiders At Buffalo Bills

Raiders Vs Position
QB – 17
RB – 17
WR – 21

Bills Vs Position
QB – 31
RB – 15
WR – 32

Fred Jackson had a strong game last week with over 100 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown. It will be a tougher match-up against a Raiders defense that did a good job holding the Broncos ground game in check. You should consider him a lower end No. 2 running back this week.

The only place where the Bills defense struggled last week was against the run. Jamaal Charles only had 10 carries as the team was forced to play catch-up, but averaged 5.6 yards per carry.  Darren McFadden had a big day against the Broncos on Monday night averaging 6.8 yards per carry and totaling 150 yards rushing. Consider McFadden a strong No. 1 running back this week.

Baltimore Ravens At Tennessee Titans

Ravens Vs Position
QB – 27
RB – 26
WR – 11

Titans Vs Position
QB – 30
RB – 10
WR – 26

With Chris Johnson still working his way into shape and after the Ravens gave up just 3.8 yards per carry to Rashard Mendenhall, Johnson should be considered a weak play this week. The Ravens secondary did have some struggles defending the wide receiver position with Mike Wallace totaling 8 receptions and over 100 yards receiving. Kenny Britt showed his big play potential last week against the Jaguars with five receptions, 136 yards receiving and two receiving touchdowns making him a decent No. 2 WR.

Ray Rice found the endzone twice last week against the Steelers, averaged over five yard per carry and should be considered a strong play against a Titans defense that struggled against the run last week. The Titans defense did well defending against the pass last week, but it was against a very pedestrian Jaguars passing game. Joe Flacco and the Ravens wide receivers should be positioned as you normally would and are neither a strong or weak play.

Jacksonville Jaguars At New York Jets

Jaguars Vs Position
QB – 16
RB – 28
WR – 7

Jets Vs Position
QB – 10
RB – 20
WR – 8

The Jets held Felix Jones to just 2.4 yards per carry making Maurice Jones-Drew a weak start this week. Consider him a No. 2 RB this week.

The Jags had some struggles defending the Titans passing game last week. They gave up over 100 yards receiving and two touchdowns to Kenny Britt and over 250 yards passing and two passing touchdowns to Luke McCown. Both Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress make strong plays this week as well as Mark Sanchez.  Despite the strong plays, some caution is warranted. The Jets mostly gave up on their running game last week as they were forced to play from behind. Expect Shonn Greene to have a bigger workload, limiting the value of the Jets passing game.

Cleveland Browns At Indianapolis Colts

Browns Vs Position
QB – 22
RB – 12
WR – 22

Colts Vs Position
QB – 28
RB – 4
WR – 16

It was a forgettable week for the Colts as they played their first game without Peyton Manning under center. Only Reggie Wayne emerged with a solid fantasy line with over 100 yards receiving and one touchdown. Wayne remains a must start, but until the Colts offense shows some signs of life exploring other options is the best play.

It was a rough week for Peyton Hillis owners as he totaled just 57 yards rushing last week. Things should be better this week against a Colts defense that gave up 167 yards rushing, two rushing touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry to the Texans running backs. Consider Hillis a No. 1 running back and strong play this week. Mohamed Massaquoi was the Browns most targeted wide receiver last week with seven targets. He finished with just three receptions, but had 77 yards receiving. Massaquoi could be a nice option as a No. 3 wide receiver depending on the size of your league.

Arizona Cardinals At Washington Redskins

Cardinals Vs Position
QB – 3
RB – 29
WR – 4

Redskins Vs Position
QB – 18
RB – 22
WR – 18

Rex Grossman had over 300 yards passing and two touchdowns last week against the Giants. Another strong performance could be in store this week after the Cardinals gave up 422 yards passing and two touchdown passes to Cam Newton. Grossman should be considered a low-end No. 1 quarterback this week and a strong play. As the Redskins most targeted wide receiver Santana Moss should be considered a strong play as a No. 2 wide receiver.

DeAngelo Williams averaged just 2.5 yards per carry while Jonathan Stewart averaged just 3.7 against the Cardinals defense last week. While Beanie Wells had a strong game last week with five yards per carry, 90 yards rushing and one touchdown it isn’t a good match-up and Wells should be considered a flex play this week. Larry Fitzgerald was the team’s most targeted receiver last week, but had only three receptions for 62 yards. Opposing defenses will continue to key on Fitzgerald limiting his value. He is a must start, but should be considered a weak play until a consistent second threat in the Cardinals passing game emerges.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Minnesota Vikings

Buccaneers Vs Position
QB – 8
RB – 18
WR – 9

Vikings Vs Position
QB – 15
RB – 1
WR – 28

Donovan McNabb and the Vikings passing game has a nice match-up facing a Buccaneers defense the struggled holding the Lions offense in check. However, until they show signs of production their best spot is on your bench. The Bucs did well in limiting the Lions rushing game giving up just 3.4 yards per carry to Javid Best and Jerome Harrison. Despite the weak match-up Peterson is a strong play and should be considered a No. 1 running back.

No defense gave up more points to the running back position than the Vikings last week. It should be noted that most of the damage was done with Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews coming out of the backfield as receivers. LeGarrette Blount should get a bigger workload than his five carries last week, but his skills as a receiver are questionable at best. Despite what looks like a solid match-up by the numbers, take it with a grain of salt. Consider Blount a mid-level No. 2 this week with some upside.  Josh Freeman should be considered a low-end No. 1 quarterback this week against a Vikings defense that gave up over 300 yards passing and two touchdown passes to Philip Rivers.

Chicago Bears At New Orleans Saints

Bears Vs Position
QB – 26
RB – 11
WR – 23

Saints Vs Position

QB – 5
RB – 13
WR – 2

While Matt Ryan passed for over 300 yards last week, it took him 47 pass attempts to do it and he had zero touchdowns. As well, no Falcon wide receiver broke the 75 yard receiving barrier. Still, Drew Brees is a must start regardless of match-up and Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem should be considered No. 3 wide receivers with good upside. The Bears did struggle some with the run allowing Michael Turner 10 yards per carry. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram are both low end No. 2 running backs this week, but work best as flex plays. If you happen to play in a PPR league Darren Sproles could serve as a decent flex option as well.

The Saints defense proved to be susceptible to both the run and the pass last week. The Bears aren’t at the same level as the Packers, but should be able to move the ball against the Saints defense. Start your Bears  as you normally would in what looks like a nice match-up.

Seattle Seahawks At Pittsburgh Steelers

Seahawks Vs Position
QB – 24
RB – 31
WR – 31

Steelers Vs Position
QB – 9
RB – 2
WR – 24

Don’t put too much stock into the Seahawks pass defense from last week. They were, after all, facing Alex Smith. The concern for Roethlisberger owners has to be the team’s offensive line. Consider Roethlisberger a low end No. 1 quarterback this week. Mike Wallace was the only bright spot for the Steelers offense last week as he totaled over 100 yards receiving on eight receptions. Wallace should be played as a No. 1 wide receiver. While his role in the offense has diminished with the emergence of Wallace, Hines Ward is still worth a look as a No. 3 wide receiver or a flex play in deeper leagues. What the Seahawks did best last week was holding Frank Gore in check. The 49ers running back averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. Fantasy owners should still look to start Mendenhall, but he should be consider only a No. 2 running back this week and is a weak play.

Don’t start any Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys At San Francisco 49ers

Cowboys Vs Position
QB – 13
RB – 24
WR – 15

49ers Vs Position
QB – 20
RB – 32
WR – 10

Frank Gore owners have to be getting nervous after his Week 1 performance where he averaged just 2.7 yards per carry on 22 carries. With Alex Smith at the helm Gore is going to see eight men in the box an awful lot this year. The Cowboys did well in limiting the Jets run game last week. Consider Gore a mid level No. 2 running back and a weak play this week.

Don’t be sold just yet on the 49ers defense. They did well against the Seahawks, but it was the Seahawks. Start your Cowboys as you normally would.

San Diego Chargers At New England Patriots

Chargers Vs Position
QB – 32
RB – 23
WR – 29

Patriots Vs Position
QB – 2
RB – 21
WR – 6

The Chargers join a long list of Week 1 defenses that looked really well playing against a weak offense. Despite the good numbers on paper don’t shy away from any Patriots.

The Dolphins passing game did well against the Patriots defense with Chad Henne throwing for more than 400 yards and Brandon Marshall topping 100 yards receiving. Consider both Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson strong No. 1 plays at their positions. Both Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews should be considered low end No. 2 running backs, giving Tolbert a bump in value in PPR leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals At Denver Broncos

Bengals Vs Position
QB – 19
RB – 25
WR – 27

Broncos Vs Position
QB – 23
RB – 5
WR – 30

There were more shouts for Tim Tebow than there were cheers for the Broncos offense last week against the Raiders. Other than Brandon Lloyd, who should be considered a No. 3 wide receiver, you should look at other options until the Broncos offense show they can consistently move the ball.

After Jermaine Gresham, the only Bengal worth starting is Cedric Benson. Denver gave up 191 yards rushing and six yards per carry last week. Consider Benson a mid level No. 2 running back with some upside this week.

Houston Texans At Miami Dolphins

Texans Vs Posiiton
QB – 25
RB – 30
WR – 17

Dolphins Vs Position
QB – 1
RB – 3
WR – 1

While all the talk this week has been how good the Patriots passing game looked last week, the Dolphins passing game looked nearly as strong. Don’t jump on the Chad Henne bandwagon just yet, but Brandon Marshall should be considered a low end No. 1 wide receiver this week. If you happen to play in a deeper league, Davone Bess could serve as a flex play. For owners in PPR leagues, Reggie Bush also makes a decent flex play.

Start your Texans as you normally would as they all have strong match-ups against a Dolphins defense that was simply outclassed last week.

Philadelphia Eagles At Atlanta Falcons

Eagles Vs Position
QB – 29
RB – 6
WR – 25

Falcons Vs Position
QB – 14
RB – 8
WR – 20

Matt Ryan and Roddy Rice are must starts regardless of their weak match-ups this week. Both should be considered low end No. 1’s at their respective positions. The weakness in the Eagles defense is defending against the run. Look for Michael Turner to get more than 10 carries this week and consider him a No. 1 running back and strong play.

The Falcons struggled with the Bears offense last week and will face a stiffer challenge with the Eagles this week. LeSean McCoy has the best match-up this week and should be considered a strong play, start the rest of your Eagles as you regularly would.

St. Louis Rams At New York Giants

Rams Vs Position

QB – 6
RB – 7
WR – 14

Giants Vs Position
QB – 11
RB – 19
WR – 10

The Rams numbers defending against the quarterback look worse than they are due to Michael Vick’s 98 yards rushing. If you have other viable options, it might be best to avoid playing Eli Manning this week. There are injury concerns about Hakeem Nicks after he suffered a knee injury last week. He sounds confident that he will play, if he does consider him a low end No. 1 wide receiver this week. Mario Manningham should be considered a mid level No. 3 wide receiver, but gets a nice boost in value if he Nicks sits out this week. The Rams had some struggles against the Eagles ground game with McCoy averaging 8.1 yards per carry and totally 122 yards rushing. Consider Ahmad Bradshaw a low end No. 2 running back and Brandon Jacobs a flex play in deeper leagues, but both should be considered strong plays.

Sam Bradford, according to head coach Steve Spagnuolu, is expected to start this week against the Giants. After seeing Rex Grossman throw for over 300 yards and two scores against the Giants last week, Bradford should be considered a strong play as a No. 2 quarterback this week. Reports are that Steven Jackson will miss this week against the Giants. Cadillac Williams looked good in relief, but should be consider only a flex play this week.

I know that it will probably break your heart, but there will be no Week 1 Preview or Risk Management this week. Risk Management may be shelved for good, but I plan to bringing back the weekly preview starting next week. Much of what I focus on in my preview is stats driven and since there are no stats this week, you can see how doing a stats driven article might be a bit problematic. I also just got Madden – nuff said. Since I can never resist tossing in my two cents, even without stats to play with, here are a some thoughts as you decide who to go with this week.

The best possible advice that I can give you on lineup selections this week is to keep it simple. For the most part, you should start your team as you drafted them. Don’t try to get too cute and over manage your team. You don’t have to prove your brilliance Week 1 by starting you round 16 super sleeper. I would also lean more towards players that are in the same system as they were last year. With the shortened preseason, players on new teams or in new systems might still be a couple of steps behind.

Some other things to keep in mind…

Colts Skill Positions

With Peyton Manning (photo by cdn.gunaxin.com) listed as out all signs point to Kerry Collins getting the nod as the team’s starter. As a result, you should down grade all the skill positions with the Colts. The Colts offense is based on a lot of timing routes and there simply hasn’t been enough time for this group to get that timing down. Without the threat of the passing game teams will also be able to key on the run, limiting the value of Joseph Addai as well. As always, it depends on what your other options but I would rather take a wait and see approach with the Colts this week. Without Manning, this might be a good week to take a shot with the Texans defense.

Fosters’s Hammy

One of the bigger stories to follow as the week moves forward is the status of Arian Foster’s hamstring. If Foster is unable to go, my money is on Ben Tate to get the bulk of the carries and I think he makes a decent No. 2 running back. If Foster does start, don’t expect him to get a full workload, but don’t shy away from using him either.

David Garrard

Unless the Jags know something about Luke McCown that the rest of us don’t, it will be eight man fronts for Maurice Jones-Drew from now on. Start him if you have him, but look for a hit in his production.

That will do it for this week. I’ll be back with something with a bit more meat to it next week. Good luck in all your leagues, unless you happen to be facing me.

Out On A Limb

I’ve gotten a fair number of emails over the years because of my fantasy writing. Most of them question my intelligence, manhood or a combination of both. They come because I’ve suggested they start player X over player Y and because of that they lost their weekly game by one point and now they can’t make the playoffs and it was their big money league and I should find a new line of work and…..well you get the point. I’m not always wrong. I like to think that I am more right than wrong, but few people write us fantasy writers to thank them when we are right on who to start, who to draft, who to draft or who to start. To combat the negative comments it is easy to hedge your bets. You also hedge your bets because you can’t predict injuries, bad weather or an unlucky bounce of the ball. Well, I’m not hedging any bets in this article. I’m not just going to go with ‘Ben Roethlisberger will have a good year’, but ‘Ben Roethlisberger will have a top five year at his position’. I’m also probably going to be wrong on a lot of them, so get your email ready.

Prediction – Ben Roethlisberger finishes the year as a top five quarterback.

Reason – I really like the Steelers offense to click this season. Their running game is good enough to keep defenses honest. They have an elite wide receiver in Mike Wallace who was No. 3 in scoring at wide receiver once Roethlisberger returned to the lineup. If defenses bottle up Wallace the Steelers have plenty of other options in the passing game in Emmanuel Sanders, Hines Ward, Antonio Brown and Heath Miller. The offensive line is a bit of a concern, but not enough to back off my top five call.

Prediction – Sam Bradford finishes the year as a top 10 quarterback

Reason – Take a look at what Josh McDaniels did with the Bronco’s passing game last year. At the time of his benching Kyle Orton was ranked 7th in scoring at the quarterback position and Brandon Lloyd finished the season as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver. The Rams wide receivers aren’t as god as the Broncos were last season, but Bradford is already a better quarterback than Orton.

Prediction - Ray Rice finishes outside the top five at running back.

Reasons – Many people seem to be under the impression that Willis McGahee was a touchdown poacher last season. The reality is that Rice had nearly a 2-1 advantage of carries inside the red zone over McGahee. Inside the five yard line, Rice had 12 carries and McGahee had 10. Those are hardly the numbers of a touchdown poacher, especially when you consider that all five of Rice’s touchdowns came from the 10 yard line in closer. Rice will see an increase in touches, but his production won’t be enough for top 5. Don’t forget that Ricky Williams will be involved in the rotation as well.

Prediction – LeSean McCoy will be a top five fantasy running back

Reason – With all the talk about Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek everybody seems to be forgetting about McCoy. I think opposing defenses will do the same. The only question is can he get enough carries. If Andy Reid wants Vick to last the season, he will. A stat to keep in mind, McCoy averaged six yards per carry when Vick was in the lineup.

Prediction – Mike Wallace finishes the year as a top five fantasy wide receiver.

Reason – Wallace’s nine receptions during the Roethlisberger suspension ranked him 68th among wide receivers. Even with that dismal start, Wallace finished the year as the 9th wide receiver in scoring. A full season with Roethlisberger pushes Wallace into the elite tier.

Five quick predictions……

1. Tom Brady finishes outside the top 5 at quarterback.
2. DeMarco Murray outscores Felix Jones over the second half of the season.
3. Mike Sims-Walker finishes the season as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver.
4. Chad Ochocinco finishes outside the top 30 at wide receiver.
5. If I hit on one of these predictions you will never hear the end of it.

That will do it for our mini-draft guide blog edition. If you have missed any of the other sections check the below links. We hope we have helped you out a bit and wish you luck this season. Be sure to check out our weekly contest where you can take on some of the leading fantasy experts in the business. If you have any type of draft, trade or line-up question feel free to drop me a line and I promise an answer.

A quick look at how the last eight weeks of the 2010 season played out.

Mini-quarterback breakdown.

Mini-running back breakdown.

Mini-wide receiver/tight end breakdown.

Late round boom or bust picks.

Drop me a line

Swing For The Fences

The last handful of picks in your draft should be used for drafting your kicker and defense as well as taking a couple of long shot prospects. These long shot prospects can easily be jettisoned after a week or two when they prove to be worthless giving you the roster space to go after the top pickups from the early weeks. However, if they happen to pay off you have something to brag about for the rest of your fantasy career. The following players are my boom or bust prospects who are all being drafted after the 12th round in 10 team leagues or aren’t being drafted at all.

Chicago Bears Quarterback Jay Cutler – Maybe I’m the only one that still believes that Cutler has top 10 talent, but I do. Cutler proved in Denver what he could to with an elite wide receiver. The problem is that there isn’t an elite receiver to be found in Chicago. Still, a breakout season from Roy Williams, Johnny Knox or Devin Hester wouldn’t be the strangest thing to happen in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Running Back DeMarco Murray – Murray is going undrafted in most 10 team leagues after a hamstring injury saw him miss most of the preseason. It looks as if Murray will start the season as the team’s No. 3 back, but it wasn’t that long ago that there was talk that he could challenge Felix Jones for the starting job. Jones has looked good this preseason and has a firm hold on the No. 1 job, but the best thing Jones has done over his three year career is disappoint people.

Houston Texans Running Ben Tate – If you believe MRI analysis from twitter feeds than Arian Foster is going to miss three to four weeks. If this happens we will get a good look at the Texans No. 2 back. The battle for that spot is between Tate and Derrick Ward, but I think Tate eventually ends up with the role. A strong Week 1 and/or 2 performance from Tate and you could have a nice player to stash and wish ill-will toward Arian Foster.

New Orleans Saints Robert Meachem – Marques Colston has had microfracture surgery on both knees and has already had a couple of set backs. While the procedure isn’t the career killer it once was, having it done on both knees and playing half of your games on turf doesn’t inspire much confidence. If Colston struggles, I like Meachem to be the main benefactor.

New England Patriots Aaron Hernandez - There has been nothing but rave reviews coming out of Patriots camp about Hernandez. The versatility he presents by being able to lineup in the slot or at tight end should make him a valuable commodity. If Chad Ochocinco is struggling as badly to pickup the offense as reports suggests it could turn into a top 10 year.

Wide Receivers

Strategy

Rarely will you see me spend an early round pick at the wide receiver position. Unless I acquire them through a trade you won’t find Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson on any of my teams. I’d rather get my two starting running backs, or a running back and a top tier quarterback before looking at the wide receiver position. Why spend a late to mid first round pick on Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson when you can spend a mid third round pick on Greg Jennings or DeSean Jackson. There is a ton of value to be had at the wide receiver position in the middle rounds. Guys like Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin and Mario Manningham can all be had after the fifth round of your draft making it a worthwhile strategy to strengthen your other positions and take a scatter gun approach to the wide receiver position in the later rounds.

Sleepers/Value

Philadelphia Eagles Jeremy Maclin – Last season Maclin led the Eagles wide receivers in targets, receptions and receiving touchdowns finishing the season as the No. 13 wide receiver. However, the mystery illness that kept him sidelined for most of the offseason has scared plenty of owners away. Maclin has started to practice with the team on a limited basis and has said that he will be ready for the season opener. Look for a slow start to the season as Maclin shakes off the rust, but his ADP in the mid-7th round present solid value.

St. Louis Rams Mike Sims-Walker – The Rams finished last season with the fifth most passing attempts in the league. Unfortunately, it wasn’t all that effective of a passing game as they finished 19th in passing yards. With a full year under Sam Bradford’s belt and Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator I expect a more efficient passing game and somebody has to catch all those passes. For now, my bet is on Sims-Walker.

Busts

New England Patriots Chad Ochocinco – I know that it didn’t cost the Patriots much to acquire Ochocinco, but the move never made much sense to me. The Patriots need a consistent down field threat and Ochocinco hasn’t averaged more than 15 yards per reception since 2007. With reports of Ochocinco struggling to pick up the Patriots offense and the number of weapons in the passing game he just isn’t worth a fifth round pick.

Denver Broncos Brandon Lloyd - Thanks to the Broncos pass happy offense, Lloyd finished last season as the No. 1 wide receiver. Lloyd had the fifth most targets among wide receivers last season, but with Josh McDaniels out and John Fox in that isn’t going to happen this season. Lloyd is currently going late in the fifth round which is too high considering the new coaching regime in Denver.

Tight Ends

Strategy

There was a good deal of talk entering the 2010 about how deep the tight end position was and with good reason. There where 10 tight ends in 2009 that scored at least 100 points. While that talk looked a bit foolish when only five tight ends finished the 2010 season with 100 points, I don’t think the analysis was that far off. Don’t forget that Dallas Clark and Jermichael Finley both suffered injuries that severely limited their seasons and a healthy Matthew Stafford probably gets Brandon Pettigrew to 100 points. The number of teams with pass catching tight ends is increasing each season and unless you can get one of the top guys, it is best to wait on value in the later rounds.

Sleeper/Value

Houston Texans Owen Daniels – Daniels struggled in coming back from a knee injury last season playing in just 11 games and totaling his lowest number of receptions and receiving yards since his rookie season. Daniels is 100 percent entering the season and plays on a dynamic offense that should give him plenty of chances to produce. His ADP late in the seventh round is nice value.

Detroit Lions Brandon Pettigrew – Pettigrew finished 2010 as the No. 12 tight end. If it weren’t for the musical chairs the Lions played at quarterback due to injuries it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see him crack the top 10. Pettigrew in the late 13th round could be a nice return on a cheap investment.

Running Backs

Breaking Down The Top Three and Draft Strategy

I think there is a clear-cut top tier at the running back position with Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles leading the pack. I know some have thrown Ray Rice into this top group, but for reasons I’ll explain later I’m not buying it.

Safest Pick

Minnesota Vikings Running Back Adrian Peterson – In four years Peterson has never rushed for fewer than 1,298 yards and has hit double digit touchdowns each season. Peterson has also proven to be a pretty durable back missing just one regular season game over the last three years and only three for his career.

Most Upside

Kansas City Chiefs Running Back Jamaal Charles – I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see either Peterson or Foster outperform Charles, but simply based on the number of touches each back received last year it is Charles who has the most room to grow. Last season Peterson had 44 more touches than Charles and Foster had 118 more touches. The biggest thing that is holding Charles back is the presence of Thomas Jones. I don’t expect Jones to be phased out of the Chiefs offense, but Charles should get more touches as the team’s clear No. 1 running back. If more of those touches come inside the 20, Charles could push for the top spot.

Best Bet

Houston Texans Running Back Arian Foster – The Texans offense is probably the best thing that Foster has going for him over Charles and Peterson. Foster is the only one of the three where opposing defenses aren’t able to key just on him. Look for Foster’s touches to decline somewhat with a 100 percent healthy Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson, but he will still be a key part to their offensive success. Foster outscored the No. 2 fantasy running back last season by 83 points, proving just how dominating he can be.

Strategy

I’m a firm believer in running back being the most important part of your team. As a result I have always been a big advocate of drafting running backs early and often. I’m not as sold on this strategy as I have been in the past. I haven’t changed my mind on the importance of running back, but rather the position isn’t as top heavy as it has been in the past to warrant draft two back early. Where the real value is at the position is in the middle in late rounds. You still want to get a workhorse type back, but don’t be afraid to pull the trigger at wide receiver or quarterback if there is a top tier player there. Just be sure to stack your roster with plenty of running back options.

Sleepers/Value Picks

New York Giants Brandon Jacobs -  Jacobs has disappointed a number of owners since his 2008 season when he totaled over 1,000 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns. He hasn’t broken the 900 yard rushing mark since and has failed to hit double digit touchdowns. As long as Jacobs splits carries with Bradshaw his upside is going to be limited. However, he is the goal line back and a threat for double digit touchdowns. Consider him a strong No. 3 running back and a great value in the middle of the 10th round.

Green Bay Packers James Starks – Ryan Grant recently restructured his contract and took a million dollar pay cut in order to hold on to his roster spot. This is hardly a ringing endorsement for Grant as the team’s No. 1 back. Starks hasn’t been named the starter, but it wouldn’t be too surprising if he was. Worst case scenario is this turns into a time share. Best case scenario is you get a starting running back in the 11th round.

Busts

Tennessee Titans Chris Johnson – This is all about the contract for me. While I think it will get done eventually, Johnson will be playing catch-up for awhile and an early first round pick is too high a price.  It is tough to pass on the talent, but players score more points when they are actually in uniform. If you league has already drafted it might not be a bad idea to see what kind of deal you can swing with a panicky Johnson owner.

Baltimore Ravens Ray Rice - Rice is on my bust list simply because I think he is being drafted too high. The Ravens running back is the No. 3 running back off most draft boards and has an ADP of third overall. My issue is that I just don’t see much difference from last season where Rice finished as the No. 11 running back. The offensive line is still pretty average and after Anquan Boldin the wide receiving corps isn’t too much to get excited about. I know that some are basing an increase in production with Willis McGahee in Denver. The problem is that the Ravens have signed Ricky Williams and McGahee wasn’t poaching too many carries as Rice as already leading the team in carries inside the red zone and inside the five. I thin Rice stays pretty close to what he was last year, a low end No. 1 running back and not worthy of a top three pick.

Check out the quarterback breakdown here.

Check out trends from the last eight weeks of 2010 here.