Risk Management: Championship Week
By Adam Helbling:
Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.
Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.
BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..
Buy
QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games and has averaged 304 yards passing and 2.2 touchdowns per game. He has a great match-up this week against the Seahawks who are giving up 290 yards passing and 2.4 touchdowns to the quarterback position over the last five weeks.
RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – Benson has failed to find the end zone in his last four starts while averaging 86 yards rushing per game. Things should turn around for Benson this week against a Chiefs defense giving up 183 yards rushing and 1.4 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.
Sell
QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – We do not recommend ever benching Manning. Fantasy owners, however, should take note that the Jets are only allowing 157 yards passing and 0.4 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks of the season.
QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – McNabb has averaged 264 yards passing and 1.4 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. Like Peyton Manning, we do not recommend benching him but keep expectations low as the Broncos are giving up only 169 yards passing and 1.2 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position.
WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts – Wayne has struggled over the last five weeks averaging 66 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game. It is not going to get any easier for Wayne this week as he faces Darrelle Revis and the Jets who are giving up only 97 yards receiving and 0.2 touchdowns per game over the last five.
DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.
Buy
QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – Flacco had one of his best games of the season last week against the Bears throwing for 234 yards passing and four touchdowns. He faces the Steelers this week who have struggled defending against the pass most of the season. Over the last five weeks the Steelers have given up 264 yards passing and 1.8 touchdowns per game.
RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore had his second straight game of at least 100 yards rushing against the Eagles last week. Over the last five weeks Gore has averaged 78 yards rushing and 0.2 touchdowns per contest. During the same period of time the Lions have given up 142 yards rushing and 1.2 touchdowns per game to the running back position.
WR Michael Crabtree, San Franciso 49ers – Crabtree had his worst game of the season last week totaling just 26 yards on four receptions. It was the first time since Week 10 that he did not have at least 50 yards receiving. Over the last five weeks Crabree has averaged 57 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Lions have given up 187 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers.
WR Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens – Mason has averaged 80 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Steelers have allowed 199 yards receiving and 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers.
Sell
QB Eli Manning, New York Giants - After struggling through most of the mid-season, Manning has turned it on of late. Over the last five games he has four multiple touchdown games, including six in his last two. But with the Giants facing the Panthers fantasy owners might want to look at other options. Over the last five weeks the Panthers have allowed only 213 yards passing and 1.4 touchdowns per game.
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Mendenhall finished last week with just 38 yards rushing but was able to find the end zone for the second time over the last three weeks. In the last five weeks Mendenhall is averaging 74 yards rushing and 0.4 touchdowns per game. During the same period of time the Ravens are giving up only 93 yards rushing and 0.2 touchdowns per game.
RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai has been heavily involved in the Colts offense over the last five weeks averaging 20 touches, 90 offensive yards and 0.6 offensive touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Jets have given up only 73 yards rushing and 0.6 touchdowns to the running back position.
WR Steve Smith, New York Giants – Smith had his lowest receiving total of the season last week against the Giants. Thankfully for fantasy owners he found the end zone for the first time since Week 9. This week he faces the Panthers who are giving up 130 yards receiving per game and have not given up a touchdown to the position over the last five weeks.
PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Josh Freeman? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*
Buy
QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay - You have more guts than any of us if you consider starting Freeman. However, the Saints are giving up an average of 310 yards passing and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the last month and have allowed at least 23 points in three consecutive games. With a game Kellen Winslow and the return of WR Antonio Bryant, Freeman has a couple of options to keep pace with the high-octane Saints.
