By Adam and Adam:

(Feature photo by Adam Conn – His menorah. His team)

One of the keys to building a loyal base of readers at a new website is to carve out a niche for your content and then expand from there. The 411fantasy.com Experts Contest serves that purpose well. The Hanukkah Spectacular, an oldie but goody from our days with Draft Board Insider, is our way of connecting with people of all cultures and backgrounds.

It’s the Festival of Lights, everyone. In short, we celebrate the miracle in which the Maccabees reclaimed the Holy Temple of Jerusalem. Their oil defiled and ruined by the departed Greco-Syrians, it would require seven additional days to process purified oil. The Maccabees only had a single day’s supply of oil. but miraculously eight days later, the oil was still burning, hence, eight days of Hanukkah.

In bringing this as full circle as best we can, 411 celebrates Hanukkah on its eighth and final day by recognizing players who have exceeded expectations, the oil in our menorah so to speak, or those who have performed miracles before our very eyes. Unfortunately, because of the nature of fantasy football, we will also reprimand players who have disappointed us as well. Kind of like biting into a piece of gelt (kosher chocolate), which is barley a step above diabetic candy – sorry, Pops.

Glad I Drafted Him, Wish I Had Traded Him

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - Roethlisberger is a perfect example of a player you were probably thrilled to have drafted, but are now wishing you had traded him. Over the first six weeks of the season Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards and was 9th in passing touchdowns. From Week 7 on he ranks 18th in passing yards and 17th in passing touchdowns. Roethlisberger as a legit top tier quarterback over the first six weeks of the season and has been a liability since.

WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – Like Roethlisberger, Jackson was once a legit top tier performing at his position. Over the first nine weeks of the season Jackson ranked 3rd in receiving yards and 1st in receiving touchdowns among wide receivers. Since Week 9, however, he ranks 36th in receiving yards and has yet to find the end zone. Jackson some time to bounce back, but fantasy owners can’t be too comfortable heading into their playoffs having to count on Jackson.

Glad I Traded For Him Instead of Drafting Him

RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – Over the first six weeks of the season Ryan Grant ranked 18th in rushing yards and 19th in rushing touchdowns. In standard ESPN scoring leagues Grant was averaging just one more point per game than Tim Hightower during this period of time. It was starting to look like one of the players we were pretty high on at the start of the season was going to turn into a bust. Since Week 6 Grant ranks 4th in rushing yards and 8th in rushing touchdowns and has moved just four points away from being a top 10 running back in standard ESPN leagues.

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore’s inclusion here is due in large part to the injury he suffered earlier in the season. He had just one rush Week 3 and missed all of Weeks 3 and 5 before returning Week 7 against the Houston Texans. Since Week 8 Gore has scored a touchdown in six of seven games while ranking 9th in rushing yards and 4th in offensive touchdowns.

Fantasy Bust of The Year (so far)

We have a hard time knocking players who miss most of a season due to injuries, so if you blew a second round pick on Clinton Portis or got burned by Owen Daniels’ injury, those are the breaks. But taking into account each players’ ADP (average draft position) there was one player that stood head and shoulders above the rest. A few that came close but did not make the list were TE Jason Witten, WR Greg Jennings and RB Willie Parker. Here are the top four along with why they belong here and why they didn’t, or in one player’s case did, take the prize.

4. RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – After 14 weeks last year Turner ranked 2nd in rushing yards and 1st in rushing touchdowns. He currently sits at 12th and 16th respectively. Turner currently has 864 yards rushing. At this point last season he had 1,269 yards rushing. Those are pretty significant drops for a player who was drafted No. 3 overall in most leagues. Most of Turner’s drop-off can be attributed to the two ankle sprains that has resulted in him missing three starts and most of Week 10 and 12. Turner’s rushing totals where down prior to his ankle injury Week 10, but he had also scored a touchdown in every game he played in except the first week of the season. For these two reasons, Turner avoids the 2009 BOTY label.

3. RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – Brandon Jacobs has 220 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns less at this point in the season compared to last. This year Jacobs is rushing for 3.9 yards per carry. Last season Jacobs had five yards per carry during the regular season. With three games left in the regular season Jacobs has zero gameswith at least 100 yards rushing and has rushed for less than 50 yards five times. While Jacobs made a strong push for the top spot, Jacobs dodged winning the award because he had a lower ADP than our unlucky winner.

2. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – We at 411 were a bit cautious with Slaton’s draft status going into the preseason. Given that he played the role of workhorse for less than a half a season in 2008, we weren’t sure of his ability to carry the load for a full 16 games. Somehow he scored seven touchdowns while compiling 854 total yards of offense barely saving him from the not-so-honorable award. In 2008 he had 138 carries through 10 games before collecting 130 over his final six. This season Slaton had 131 carries in 10 games plus one carry in one game. He rushed for 264 less yards over that period of time, but balanced that out with more receptions and receiving yards this season. Nevertheless, he was drafted as a high-end No. 2 RB and at best performed like a flex-player with just 417 rushing yards and 3.3 yards per carry. After a series of fumbles, Slaton lost his starting gig for three weeks. Upon his return to the lineup he split carries until his season ended with a shoulder and neck injury last month.

And the winner is……

1. RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – Forte currently has 336 offensive yards and six offensive touchdowns less than he had at this point last year. Forte has just one game with at least 100 yards rushing, seven games with less than 50 yards rushing and has found the end zone in only three games so far this season. Brandon Jacobs has seen the bigger drop-off in his stats from last this to this season, but Forte’s ADP of third overall puts him over the top.

Fantasy Player of The Year (so far)

4. Thomas Jones, N.Y. Jets – This has more to do with value than with overall scoring, although if we would have told you Jones was going to be the fifth highest scoring running back in and ESPN standard scoring system, you would have laughed quite loudly. A look back in the archives proves that 411 was a fan of Jones as someone you could draft low and get quality value. How good of value? Jones was taken on average 24th amongst running backs, 60th overall (the late sixth round, early 7th). Even funnier, his stock went down nearly all summer long, from the mid-fourth round in April. He is on pace to match last years totals of 1,300 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns although he will likely come short by about 100 yards receiving and a touchdown or two from last year – the nerve! Jones is by far the unsung hero of this season’s running back draft class (again).

3. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – There isn’t a lot separating Rodgers from Drew Brees. In fact, there is only a one point difference between two for the top spot in ESPN’s standard scoring leagues. Rodgers gets the nod of Brees because he has that one point advantage, but more important because on average Rodgers was drafted nearly two rounds later than Brees.

2. RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice ranks 9th in rushing yards among NFL running backs, but his 652 yards receiving is nearly 200 yards more than second place. Rice’s increased role in the team’s passing game currently ranked fourth in points scored in ESPN’s standard scoring leagues. There were running backs that posted better numbers, but considering Rice was on average the 29th running back taken in drafts he earns the No. 2 spot on this list.

And the winner is….

1. RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – Johnson is three weeks and 374 yards rushing away from being just the sixth NFL running back to crest the 2,000 yard rushing plateau. Since Week 5 Johnson has strung together eight straight games with at least 100 yards rushing and has totaled 150 yards of offense in six of his last seven games. In ESPN’s standard scoring system Ryan Grant and LaDainian Tomlinson have six more points than Johnson….combined.

Crystal Ball

There is nothing wrong with redraft leagues. However, a true test of a fantasy owner’s skill and a way participate with fantasy football all year long is to get involved in dynasty and keeper leagues. Below is a list of players who might reach elite status in the next year or two that you can probably get at a fairly low price.

QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Cutler was never going to duplicate his 2008 numbers with the Bears. His current offensive line is worse and his wide receivers aren’t even close to what he had in Denver. Even with Cutler’s struggles this season he is closing in on a 3,500 yards passing and 20 passing touchdown season. As the team’s wide receivers continue to improve and upgrades on the offensive line are made, Cutler should see his offensive numbers rise and his interceptions decline.

QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – Young is proving that he can be just as dangerous in the pocket as he is outside of it. With Chris Johnson, defenses are not able to key on the passing game  and as rookie WR Kenny Britt continues to develop, Young could have a true wide receiver weapon, the first in many years for the franchise.

RB Shonn Greene, N.Y Jets – Yes, we’re fans of Thomas Jones, but the guy is ancient. How long can it last? Leon Washington entered the season as the team’s running back of the future in most people’s eyes. After a slow start to the season and an injury that put him on the IR it looks like Green could have the inside track. Greene has a similar running style to Jones and appears to be a good fit for the Jets power running game. Thomas Jones is still a valuable NFL and fantasy running back, but his mileage and age signal that the end of his value and that start of Greene’s could be soon.

WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Much of Britt’s value will be determined upon the development of Vince Young. If Young can continue to develop as a pocket passer and the team’s open up the offense more Britt could be a valuable commodity moving forward. Britt has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games while averaging 72 yards receiving.

WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - Donald Driver has been the team’s most valuable wide receiver this season, but Jennings is the most talented. He is just one year removed from 1,292 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. The team’s struggles on the offensive line prevented them from stretching the field as much as they would like which has limited Jennings value. Upgrading the offensive line during the offseason could go a long way in seeing Jennings return to his 2008 form.

TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers – Finley’s combination of speed and size can cause match-up problems for any defense. As Finley continues to develop and with a balanced offense to keep attention elsewhere, Finley could emerge as a valuable fantasy option over the next couple of years.

Hits and Misses From Our Articles, Blog Posts and Draft Guide

HITS

Matt Forte listed in our ‘Overrated’ section with ‘we think Forte will have a tough time meeting pre-season expectations’

In our Overrated/Underrated article we suggested looking at Matt Schaub over Tony Romo. Schaub and Romo are tied in points, but Schaub was drafted on averaged 24 picks later.

We weren’t sold on Steve Slaton. We pegged him as a running back to drop out of the top 10 rushers this year. In our ‘Texans RBs: Fantasy Impact’ article we said ‘If you’re looking for Slaton to duplicate his 2008 numbers that may be asking too much. Last season he was utilized in 432 plays (touches and targets). Of those 432 plays, 77 came in the red zone. With Slaton losing those carries to Brown, Slaton’s offensive yards and more importantly touchdowns, are likely to take a noticeable dip.’

Last year David Garrard, Jay Cutler and Matt Cassell were all top 10 in passing yards. We predicted all three would drop out of the top 10 this season. All three are good bets to do just that.

Called Dallas Clark a top five tight end that you didn’t have to over-pay for in our ‘Difference Makers’ article.

Tito’s Man Crush Ryan Grant got more ink in our Draft Guide and on the site than any other NFL player.

From Adam Conn’s article ‘Fantasy Impact: Seattle RBs’ talking about Edgerrin James and more importantly Julius Jones “I’m not endorsing either one of these guys as a starting fantasy back”.

In our ‘Fear This RBBC’ article we cautioned counting on any of the Tampa Bay running backs.

In Adam Helbling’s ‘Last Minute Predictions’ blog post he said ‘Ahmad Bradshaw makes the Giants happy they didn’t spend $17 million dollars on an overpriced back-up.

In Adam Helbling’s ‘Last Minute Predictions’ blog post he said ‘Kyle Orton end of the year statistics 3,000 yards and 22 TDs’ and ‘Robert Meachem end of year statistics: 800 yards and 5TDs’. Looking good on both of those.

Helbling also correctly predicted that Vince Young, Josh Freeman and Matt Leinart would be starting QBs by season’s end. The first two based on necessity, the last based on injury. He got all three, but Kurt Warner returned from his concussion, so we’ll give him 2.5 out of 3 on that one. Nicely done.

MISSES

Brandon Marshall listed as ‘Overrated’. Tunred out he was quite the opposite. His draft status plummeted 22nd amongst receivers (behind Eddie Royal!) and he now ranks 7th with 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns.

Earnest Graham listed as ‘Underrated’. Cadillac Williams returned and was shockingly named the starting running back one week prior to the regular season. Graham, meanwhile has been inactive more often than not. Doh. We’re not sure if that surprised us more, or the fact that Williams has remained unscathed from injury this year.

Predicting Philip Rivers to drop out of the top 10 in passing yards this season looked so guru at the start of the year. Right now it just doesn’t look very smart.

We included LenDale White as one of our difference makers…..ugh.

In Adam Helbling’s ‘Last Minute Predictions’ blog post he said ‘ Willie Parker will finish the season as a top 10 fantasy back’.

DREIDEL TIME!!!

We interrupt this self-evaluation for a quick game of dreidel. Everyone antes into the pot. Bets are placed about which letter will be facing up when the dreidel stops spinning and drops. Each side has a letter; nun, gimmel, hay and shin.

They represent the following: Nun (N): No one wins Gimmel (G): The spinner takes the pot Hay (H): Spinner gets half the pot Shin (S): Spinner puts another one into the pot.

First up, RB Darren McFadden…. And it’s NUN, as in, he did NUNthing this season. Tito (and to a lesser degree Conn) were excited about McFadden’s upside and potential this season as the Raiders playmaker. Now he looks like just another Reggie Bush.

Next is, TE Vernon Davis…. GIMMEL, and well deserved. Entering his fourth season, Davis was a, “well, I guess I need a backup, I’ll take a stab at this guy” kind of draft pick this summer. He’s now the best tight end in the league with 811 yards and 11 TDs.

Spinning next is QB Brett Favre…. HAY. Interesting because Favre is having a monster season. But he only gets half the pot because of the shameless media coverage he gets on a weekly basis. This is the only way we can think to punish him because we certainly can’t argue with his playing ability this season.

Last are WR Eddie Royal and RB Brian Westbrook…. And it’s a SHIN. Pay up. If you drafted these two, you likely spent a much higher draft pick than their proven value and it cost you. Other candidates for a SHIN were TE Chris Cooley, The Tennessee Titans defense, QB Carson Palmer and RB Marshawn Lynch.

SHOUT OUT

In celebrating the Festival of Lights, we recognize the following active Jewish players in the NFL and wish them a very Happy Hanukkah.

• David Binn, LS, San Diego Chargers
• Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
• Adam Goldberg, OG, St. Louis Rams
• Cameron Goldberg, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
• Josh Miller, P, Free Agent
• Igor Olshansky, DL, Dallas Cowboys
• Adam Podlesh, P, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Sage Rosenfels, QB, Minnesota Vikings
• Mike Rosenthal, T, Miami Dolphins
• Geoff Schwartz, OT, Carolina Panthers

Please feel free to send us any players we may have accidentally left off.

Happy Holidays to one and all. Stay tuned for next week’s Ode to Festivus by Jeff Thitoff. Thanks for your continued support this season and best of luck in the playoffs!

Email Conn and/or Bling