Thursday Primer: Colts at Jaguars

December 17 2009 No Commented

By Adam Helbling:

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars


Colts head coach Jim Caldwell does not appear to be as concerned with chasing history as he does making sure that his players are fully healthy for the post-season run. But fantasy owners can relax a bit as Caldwell has stated that all healthy players will play tonight and there are no indications that Caldwell will pull the plug early in the second half. “The only thing that will deter playing time is health issues – whether or not a player is capable of playing,” he said.

The Jaguars will be playing at home in front of a capacity crowd for the first time this season and a win will help them keep pace in securing an AFC Wild Card berth.

Quarterbacks

Over the last five weeks the Jaguars rank just outside the top 10 defending opposing quarterbacks. During this period of time QBs have averaged 240 yards passing, one touchdown and 1.4 interceptions per contest. When the two teams first met in Week 1 Peyton Manning finished with 301 yards passing, one touchdown and one interception. It isn’t a good match-up for Manning, but match-ups do not matter with Manning. If you own him, start him.

Due to a number of injuries, the Colts have struggled defending against quarterbacks over the last five weeks. During this period of time they rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks surrendering 286 yards passing and 1.8 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position. David Garrard has had his struggles, but has played noticeably better at home than on the road. It is a good match-up for Garrard and he’s a good option, but the team’s reliance on the running game prevents him from being a must start.

Running Backs

The Jaguars have been one of the league’s best teams defending against the run over the last five weeks. Their 74 yards rushing per game given up to running backs is the third fewest during this period of time. Donald Brown has been ruled out with a chest injury which puts a heavier workload on Joseph Addai. Yards have been hard to come by for Addai, but he has been one of he league’s most productive running backs over the last five weeks, averaging a touchdown per game. This match-up makes him best utilized as a No. 2 running back.

Indianapolis has been middle of the road defending against opposing running backs over the last five games. As a unit they have given up 107 yards rushing and 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game. In Week 1, Maurice Jones-Drew had 97 yards rushing and one touchdown. It is a pretty neutral match-up for Jones-Drew who should be considered a No. 1 running back.

Wide Receivers

Over the last five weeks the Jaguars have given up 175 yards receiving per game to opposing wide receivers, but only 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game. It should be noted that during this time the talent the Jaguars secondary has faced has been sub-par other than Andre Johnson. Like Manning, Reggie Wayne is a must start regardless of match-up and had 167 yards receiving and one touchdown when the two teams faced each other in Week 1. Pierre Garcon is a viable option this week as well, but without a favorable match-up he is not a player to count on. Austin Collie should only be used as an option in the deepest of leagues.

The run of injuries in the Colts secondary has seen the unit struggle defending against the pass over the last five weeks. They are allowing over 200 yards receiving and 1.4 receiving touchdown per game to opposing receivers during this period of time. Mike Sims-Walker has struggled over the last five weeks averaging just 40 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game. A calf injury which he has seemed to overcome hasn’t helped, but fantasy owners would be best served using him only as a No. 3 wide receiver this week. Torry Holt is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but has played better of late with Sims-Walker struggling. Now that Sims-Walker is healthy Holt’s value drops some and he should only be considered in deeper leagues.

Tight Ends

Both teams are defending well against opposing tight ends over the last five weeks but as with Manning and Wayne, Dallas Clark is a must start and the only tight end in tonight’s game that should see an owner’s starting line-up.

Kickers

As efficient as the Colts offense has been playing Matt Stover has averaged just one field goal attempt per game. Stover’s chances to contribute are likely to be more from extra points than field goals. Jaguars PK Josh Scobee has the better match-up of the two with the Colts giving up two field goal attempts per game over the last five weeks. With the weakened Colts secondary the Jaguars should be able to move the ball enough to give Scobee enough scoring chances, making him a decent play tonight.

Defense

Fantasy owners should be able to find better defensive units than either the Colts or Jaguars. Manning has had at least two interceptions in four of his last five games, but the Colts should be able to move the ball well enough to prevent the Jaguars from being a strong option. The Colts could be used in deeper leagues, but DE Dwight Freeney may not play, and his P.I.C. Robert Mathis is also on the injury report. Coupled with a struggling secondary, they are a risky play this evening.

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