Risk Management: Week 15

December 15 2009 No Commented

By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs.

Buy

QB Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – Warner’s rough outing against the 49ers is likely to be quickly forgotten with the Detroit on the horizon. The Lions are giving up 291 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest to the quarterback position.

RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – Peterson owners will be smiling this week as the Vi-kings face the Panthers. Carolina is giving up 159 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per contest to opposing running backs over the last five weeks. During the same period of time Pe-terson has averaged 83 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game.

Sell

QB Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – Rivers is averaging 268 yards passing and 1.6 touch-downs over the last five weeks so sitting him isn’t a likely option. With the Bengals allowing 168 yards passing and 0.8 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks during the same period of time expectations should be lowered.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has become the Vikings most valuable receiver over the last five weeks averaging 98 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game. Fantasy owners counting on him this weekend might walk away disappointed with the Panthers allowing only 132 yards receiving and zero touchdowns per contest to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continu-ous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins – Campbell has had multiple passing touchdowns games in three straight weeks and is averaging 254 yards passing and 1.6 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Giants have given up 303 yards passing and two passing touchdown per contest to opposing quarterbacks.

WR Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bryant has averaged 67 yards receiving and 0.3 receiving touchdowns over the last five weeks (four starts). Utilizing Bryant as anything more than a No. 3 wide receiver is a bit risky, but with the Seahawks giving up an average of 206 yards receiving and two touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers it might be a risk that pays offs.

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars - Sims-Walker’s production has taken a noticeable dip over the last five weeks averaging just 40 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per contest. This could be the week he gets back on track with the Colts giving up 202 yards receiving and 1.4 touchdowns per contest opposing receivers during the same period of time.

Sell

WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – Jackson broke the 100 yard receiving mark for the first time since Week 8 last week, but has yet to find the end zone in five straight games. With the Bengals giving up only 102 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks you might want to explore better options.

WR Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – It doesn’t matter what type of numbers a player has been putting up when it comes to facing the Jets and Darrelle Revis. The Jets are giving up only 111 yards receiving and 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks.

PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Josh Freeman? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Freeman had only 93 yards passing and three inter-ceptions last week against the Jets. Things should be easier this week against the Seahawks who are giving up 317 yards passing and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks.

RB Chris Jennings, Cleveland Browns – All signs point towards Jennings taking over the team’s No. 1 RB role over the last couple of weeks. He has a good chance to post solid numbers with the Chiefs giving up 157 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game over the last five weeks to the running back position.

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