By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs…

Buy

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees has had at least two passing touchdowns in each of the last four weeks of the season and is averaging 306 yards passing and 2.6 touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks. He faces the Atlanta Falcons this week who are giving up 265 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game over that same time.

RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – How good has Johnson been of late? His 113 yards rushing last week was his lowest total in six weeks. His quest for 2,000 yards rushing should get a boost this week as he faces the Rams who are giving up 152 yards rushing and 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks.

Sell

QB Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – Favre has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four out of the last five weeks while averaging 306 yards passing and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. He faces one of the league’s best pass defenses over the last five weeks in the Bengals who are giving up 168 yards passing and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.

RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – Even with Benson missing time due to injury he is averaging a respectable 83 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. But we look for things to be tough going against the Vikings (ranked third overall against the run) who are giving up only 41 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs during the same period of time.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has been one of the league’s highest producing receivers over the last five weeks. During this time he has averaged 113 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per game. You can’t sit him if you own him, but things could be tough against a Bengals unit that is allowing just 93 yards receiving per game to opposing receivers over the same period of time.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans - Even without tight end Owen Daniels, Schaub has been able to produce solid numbers for fantasy owners. Over the last five weeks of the season he has averaged 277 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Seahawks have given up 285 yards passing and 2.4 passing touchdowns per contest.

RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets – Jones has rushed for at least 100 yards or scored a touchdown in each of his last nine games. Over the last five weeks he has averaged 91 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Meanwhile the Buccaneers have given up 150 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game to running backs while allowing five yards per carry.

WR Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens – With QB Joe Flacco (see more below) struggling of late, Mason’s numbers have taken a hit this season. Over the last five weeks he has just one touchdown and averaged 65 yards receiving per game. But he does make a decent No. 3 option this week against a Lions secondary that has given up 214 yards receiving and 1.4 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing receivers during the same period of time.

WR Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – Marshall has averaged 90 yards receiving and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game over the last five weeks of the season. He has good value this week against a Colts defense that is giving up 203 yards receiving and one touchdown per game to opposing wide receivers during the same period of time.

Sell

RB Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins – Over the last five weeks Williams has averaged 89 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per game. But the Jaguars defense has given up just 60 yards rushing and 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs in that time as well.

RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – Over the last five weeks Forte has averaged 96 offensive yards per game thanks to his involvement in the team’s passing game. But he has just one TD over that time, four total, one 100-yard rushing performance and is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season. Forte owners could be in for more disappointment this week against a Packers defense that is given up only 53 yards rushing per game and 3.4 yards per carry to the running backs over the same period of time.

PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share. * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens -  Flacco is averaging just 206 yards passing and 0.4 passing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. He has failed to throw for multiple touchdowns for six consecutive weeks. Things could look more like 2008 for Flacco this week against the Lions defense that is giving up 312 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per contest over the five weeks of the season.

RB Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills – Even as the “starter” Jackson is still splitting carries with Marshawn Lynch. Over the last five weeks of the season Jackson has averaged 47 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. But during the same period of time the Chiefs have given up 145 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Jackson’s value is greater in PPR leagues due to his involvement in the team’s passing game.

*edit* RB Quinton Ganther, Washington Redskins – If your running back corps has been decimated by injuries, Cartwright Ganther might make a nice fall-back option this week. HC Jim Zorn announced today that Ganther would take over the starting role over Rock Cartwirght, but hinted that there would be some form of committee. Nevertheless, any starting running back, especially one facing the Raiders, is worth a pickup. Ganther is averaging 6.0 yards per carry in part-time action the last two weeks. The Raiders defense has given up 149 yards rushing per game over the last five weeks to opposing running backs.

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