Risk Management: Week 13
By Adam Helbling:
Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.
Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.
BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs…
Buy
QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – Over the last five weeks McNabb has thrown for 284 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. He faces the Falcons this week who are giving up 269 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest. Also, the Falcons defense gave up 250 yards passing and two touchdowns just last week to Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman.
RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – With most of the attention in Minnesota on Brett Favre, Peterson has averaged a rather quiet 99 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game. The spotlight might be back on ADP this week as he faces a Cardinals defense giving up 146 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per game to running backs over the last five weeks.
WR Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals – Ochocinco’s 50 yards receiving per game and zero touchdowns over the last five weeks of the season have been a big disappointment. Luckily for Ocho owners he faces a Lions unit giving up 198 yards receiving and 1.2 receiving touchdowns to the wide receiver position during the same period of time.
Sell
Somewhere under there is Ryan Grant (photo by espn.com)
QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers had a Happy Thanksgiving against the Detroit Lions throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns. Over the last five weeks of the season he has averaged 287 yards passing and 2.2 touchdowns per game. But during this same period of time the Baltimore Ravens have held opposing quarterback to just 184 yards passing and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game.
RB Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – Grant had one of his worst games of the season last week totaling 61 yards rushing and just 3.1 yards per carry. Things could be even tougher this week against a Ravens defense giving up only 89 yards rushing and 0.6 rushing touchdowns to the running back position over the last five weeks.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals – With Matt Leinart at the helm, Fitzgerald had just 34 yards receiving last week, tying a season low. Leinart could possibly make his second start of the season and the Vikings are giving up just 140 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over the last five weeks. Keeping expectations low for Fitz would be wise.
DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.
Buy
QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – Smith had one of his best performances of the season last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars throwing for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Last week was also the first time all season he failed to throw an interception. Over the last five weeks Smith has averaged 212 yards passing and 1.6 touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Seahawks have given up 274 yards passing and have given up a league leading 13 touchdowns.
QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – With the addition of Miles Austin helping to revitalize the Cowboys passing game, Tony Romo has averaged 256 yards passing and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. He faces a struggling Giants secondary that is giving up 240 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns per contest.
RB Jamal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs – Charles has to be making Chiefs fans wondering why they didn’t cut their losses with Larry Johnson earlier in the season. Over the last five weeks of the season the J.C. (he’s earned it) has averaged 73 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game. After a strong start to the season, the Broncos defense has struggled giving up 141 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the running back position.
RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai’s involvement in the team’s passing game has made him one of the more valuable fantasy options in the NFL over the last five weeks, averaging 86 offensive yards and one touchdown per game. During that same time the Titans have given up 6.1 yards per carry and 98 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position.
RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets – Jones has either rushed for over 100 yards or scored a touchdown in each of his last five games while averaging 89 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Bills have given up 130 yards rushing and 1.8 touchdowns to opposing running backs.
WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – Crabtree has been a decent No. 3 WR for most teams since ending his hold-out. Over the last five weeks of the season he has averaged 58 yards receiving and 0.2 touchdowns per contest. He might be in line for a breakout game this week against a Seahawks defense giving up 172 yards receiving and 2.2 receiving touchdowns to the wide receiver position over the same period of time.
Sell
T.O.'s Thanksgiving surge may have been short-lived (photo by espn.com).
RB Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals – Even with Hightower splitting carries with Chris Wells the Cardinals No. 1 running back has averaged 89 offensive yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. During the same period of time, however, the Vikings defense has given up just 2.8 yards per game while allowing 35 yards rushing per game.
RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – Over the last five weeks of the season Smith has averaged 96 offensive yards and 0.2 offensive touchdowns per game. During this same period of time the Bengals defense have given up just one touchdown and 62 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.
WR Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills – Owens finished last week with 96 yards receiving and one touchdown, his second straight game with a touchdown reception. Making it three straight will be difficult as he draws the attention of Darrelle Revis and the New York Jets. Over the last five weeks of the season the Jets have given up only 117 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position.
WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars – Sims-Walker has scored a touchdown in three of his last five games while averaging 68 yards receiving per contest. This week he will face the Texans who are one of the best in limiting production from opposing receivers (115 yards receiving and 0.8 touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks).
PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share. * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*
Buy
QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – Palmers 110 yards passing last week was a season low. Worse, it was against the Cleveland Browns and Palmer has not one 300 yard performance this season. But he gets a chance at redemption this week against the Lions who are giving up 303 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game over the last five weeks.
WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Britt had his best game of the season last week against the Arizona Cardinals. The rookie finished with 128 yards receiving and the game winning touchdown as time expired. He will face a depleted Colts secondary this week who has given up a league leading 206 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers over the last five weeks of the season.
