Post Season Preparation: Receivers
By Adam Helbling:
At this point in the season you probably have a pretty good read if your team has playoff potential or if you need to start planning who you will take with next year’s first overall pick. For those of you in the latter group, you will have to check back in about eight months. For fantasy owners who see the playoffs in their future it is never too early to start planning for the stretch run. Consider acquiring or shipping the below listed wide receivers who either have a very favorable or very unfavorable set of match-ups over the last four weeks of the season. For Helbling’s first installments on quarterbacks, click here; Running backs, click here
* Match-ups between weeks 13-16 were used in judging the value of each players. Week 17 is not included as most leagues, due to NFL teams sitting their starters, have their championship game Week 16.
Trade For
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans – While the price to acquire Johnson will be a steep one, looking at his match-ups over the last four weeks of the fantasy season it could be worth it. The worst match-up that Johnson faces during this period of time is Week 13 against the Jaguars who are giving up 173.7 yards receiving and 1.36 touchdowns per contest. Week 14, Houston faces the seventh worst team in defending receivers, the Seahawks, who are also ninth worst over the last month. Weeks 15 and 16 are against the Rams and Dolphins, who are average at best.
Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - The most difficult match-up that Jackson will face over the last four weeks of the fantasy season is Week 15 against the Cincinnati Bengals who are giving up 134 yards receiving and 0.45 touchdowns per game. The remaining match-ups Jackson has during this stretch are against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in defending against the wide receiver position, including this Sunday at Cleveland. Week 16, most leagues championship game, Jackson faces the Titans secondary who is giving up 181.5 yards receiving and 1.82 touchdowns per game this season.
Trade Away
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – White is on pace for a third straight 1,000 yards season and has already matched his career high in touchdowns (7). He is averaging 70 yards receiving and 0.64 touchdowns per game to date. Even with those numbers he isn’t a player fantasy owners should count on during the stretch run due to match-ups. White has three games against defenses that rank in the top 10 in defending against the wide receiver position. In weeks 15-16 he faces the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets who rank one and two defending opposing wide receivers this season. This week? The Falcons draw the third-ranked Eagles. SELL, SELL, SELL!
Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys – Austin has scored seven touchdowns since emerging in Dallas Week 5, and while it might be difficult to part with that type of production, selling high is the key to trades. Austin has a favorable match-up Week 15 against the Saints, but over the last four weeks, the Saints are 10th best defending opposing receivers (130.8 rec. yards per game). The three other games are all against defenses that rank in the top 10 in defending the position this season – Giants 4th, Chargers 5th, Redskins 8th.