By Adam Helbling:

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a “bad” week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

Buy

RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – There is no word on the status of Benson’s hip, but most reports last week had him with a good shot to return Week 12. This will be a situation to watch for Benson owners, but should he play this week it could be a good one. The Browns are giving up 127 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per contest over the last five weeks of the season and rank 29th overall against the run.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has either scored a touchdown or gained over 100 yards in four of his last five games and is quickly becoming the team’s go-to receiver. Over the last five weeks he has averaged 117 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. We look for another solid out against the Bears who have struggled defending opposing wide receivers. Over the last five weeks the Bears have given up an average of 153 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdown receptions per game.

Sell

QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – Over the last five weeks of the season McNabb has thrown for at least two touchdown passes in three games and is averaging 263 yards passing per contest. McNabb could struggle to hit those numbers this week against the Washington Redskins. The ‘Skins held Tony Romo to just 158 yards passing and one touchdown last week and are giving up only 165 yards passing and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks.

RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens - Rice hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since Week 4, but it is his combined numbers that give him his value. Over the last five weeks of the season Rice has averaged 121 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per game. A betting man would take the under on those numbers this week as he faces a Steelers defense giving up 59 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per contest to the position over the same period of time.

WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts – This is the section of the article where we give the obligatory reminder that just because a player finds himself in the ‘Sell’ section does not mean you should bench him. This is especially true for Wayne who has averaged 101 yards receiving and 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. But this week the Colts draw the Texans, who have clamped down defensively a bit in recent weeks (112.3 yards receiving allowed per game over their last five). Use Wayne with lowered expectations is all we’re saying.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – Even with Benson out of the line-up the Bengals still leaned on the running game last week against the Raiders. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard combined for 34 rushing attempts (43 as a team) and Palmer threw the ball only 22 times, his lowest number of attempts this season. Over the last five weeks Palmer is averaging 210 yards passing and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. Forget what the Browns are giving up to the position during the same period of time (265 yds passing, 2Tds), did you see what Matthew Stafford did last week against them?

QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos – Orton has struggled over the last five weeks of the season averaging only 184 yards passing and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. Owners will have to follow his injury status through the week, but he could be worth a start this week. The Giants have given up 237 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns to the position during the same period of time.

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – A strong second half against the New York Giants helped Ryan put together one of his best performances of the season. For the first time in six weeks Ryan did not throw an interception and finished with 268 yards passing and two touchdowns. Ryan will have a legit shot at two solid games in the row facing the Buccaneers this week. Over the last five weeks the Bucs have given up 234 yards passing and 2.3 passing touchdowns to the position per game.

RB Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins – The injury to Ronnie Brown cleared the path for Ricky Williams to take over the No. 1 job in Miami. He responded with three touchdowns Thursday night against the Carolina Panthers. Look for another good outing this week with the Bills allowing 119 yards rushing and 1.8 touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks.

RB Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys – Barber’s numbers over the last five weeks have been a disappointment. The encouraging news is that for the first time this season he had 20 carries. Moreover Barber faces the Oakland Raiders who are giving up 4.8 yards per carry, 161 yards rushing and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position over the last five weeks.

Sell

RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – Over the last five weeks Forte has averaged only 44 yards rushing per contest. What has helped Forte owners though is that he has also averaged 54 yards receiving per game. Reaching those totals against a Viking defense that is giving up only 49 yards rushing and 0.3 touchdowns per game to the position over the last five weeks is going to be tough.

WR Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ward finds himself here for two main reasons. First, with Charlie Batch (wrist) out and Roethlisberger (concussion like symptoms – concussion-ish for short) a little woozy from last Sunday, the Steelers could potentially use Dennis Dixon at quarterback. Big Ben is likely to suit up and play, but also consider that the Ravens have given up just 132 yards receiving per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.

PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Ryan Fitapatrick? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills – Fitzpatrick had 297 yards passing and a touchdown last week. Don’t count on him to duplicate those numbers this week, but he does have a good match-up against the Seahawks. Over the last five weeks the Seahawks have given up 272 yards passing and three passing touchdowns per game.

Email Bling-Bling