Risk Management

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a “bad” week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS

Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

Buy

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – There have been few players more valuable in fantasy football than MJD over the last five weeks. During this time he has averaged 133 yards rushing and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. He has also scored at least one touchdown in four straight games. Count on him for another good game against a Bills defense giving up 179 yards rushing, 5.8 yards per carry and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks.

RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – The Rams may be struggling, but it certainly isn’t because of Jackson. He has rushed for more than 130 yards three straight weeks and has averaged 116 yards rushing and 0.5 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack in defending the run. However, it should be noted that they are also giving up 5.5 yards per carry. As heavy as the Rams lean on Jackson, he could be in for another solid outing.

WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans – Johnson is averaging 91 yards receiving per contest over the last five weeks, but has gone four weeks without scoring a touchdown. Johnson’s touchdown streak could come to an end this week against the Titans who are giving up an average of 2.3 receiving touchdowns and 91 yards receiving per game to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks.

Sell

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – Over the last five weeks of the season the Cowboys passing game has come alive as Romo has averaged 281 yards passing and two passing touchdowns per game. Those numbers will be hard to reach against a Redskins defense that has given up 172 yards passing and one passing touchdown to the quarterback position over the last five weeks.

RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – You can’t take Johnson out of you line-up, especially with him averaging 156 yards rushing and 1.5 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. However, Johnson owners should keep in mind that the Texans have given up just 54 yards rushing and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position during this period of time. As well, the Texans are giving up just 3.3 yards per carry.

WR Randy Moss, New England Patriots – Like Johnson, you aren’t going to sit Moss. Over the last five weeks he has averaged 131 yards receiving and 1.5 touchdown receptions per game. During the same period of time the Jets are allowing just 86 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdown receptions per game. Moss will also have to face off against Darrelle Revis so Moss owners shouldn’t expect him to carry their team this week.

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DEFENSIVE STOCKS

A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – Hasselbeck has thrown for over three hundred yards in two straight games and is averaging 251 yards passing and one touchdown per contest over the last five games. The Vikings have struggled in defending the pass over the last five weeks giving up 268 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. The big reason for the Vikings struggles has to do with Antoine Winfield missing time with a foot injury. The good news for Hasselbeck owners is that Winfield has already been ruled out for this week.

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Ryan has thrown at least two interceptions in four of his last five games and is averaging 206 yards passing to with 1.4 touchdowns during this period of time. He will have a chance to turn things around this week against the New York Giants who are looking for their first win since Week 5. Over the last five weeks the Giants have given up 262 yards passing and 2.8 passing touchdown per game.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has only two touchdowns for the season, none since Week 4. The lack of touchdowns hasn’t prevented Rice from contributing from a fantasy standpoint, however, as he has averaged 138 yards receiving over the last five weeks. During this same period of time the Seahawks have given up 188 yards receiving and two receiving touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

Sell

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Over the last five weeks Gore is averaging 78 yards rushing and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. Gore has also scored a touchdown in three straight games. That streak could come to an end this week against a Packers defense giving up 70 yards rushing and 0.2 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs during the same period of time.

WR Devin Hester, Chicago Bears – Hester has had at least 80 yards receiving in four of his last five games and has averaged 81 yards receiving and 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game. Building on those numbers might be difficult against the Eagles defense has given up 126 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers over the last five weeks.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Matthew Stafford? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – Stafford is only averaging 198 yards passing and one passing touchdown per game over the last five weeks. During the same period of time the Cleveland Browns have allowed 263.8 yards passing per game and 1.25 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 5 the Browns have held an opponent to under 27 points and 225 yards passing just once.

RB Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – Being stuck in a time-share at running back is the only thing keeping Wells in the Penny Stocks section. Over the last five weeks Wells has averaged 60 yards rushing and 0.6 touchdowns per contest. As well, he has rushed for more than five yards per carry three straight weeks. Another strong week could be in the making against the Rams who are giving up 143 yards rushing and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position over the last five weeks.

Questions? Comments? Email Helbling.