I’m ‘Gone Fishing’ this week, but simply couldn’t resist giving my two cents on the whole Belichkick going for it on fourth and two.

Last night it seemed that everybody agreed that it was a boneheaded move.  Even Tony Dungy seemed close to wanting to call Belichick stupid. Fast forward to this afternoon and suddenly Belichick is back to being a genius. Part of this has to do with the unwritten rule that Belichick can do no wrong. This is, after all, the man who got the NFL office to destroy the evidence of his team’s cheating. The other part has to do with some pretty solid statistical work by stat geeks. Examples can be found here and here.

The takeaway from the stats is that the odds were better that the Pats get the first down, thus winning the game, then punting and the Colts scoring a TD.  People leaning on the stats here are being a bit misguide (my polite way of saying stupid.)

You are dealing with all kinds of incomplete data. You can’t just look at the odds of getting a first down against the odds of the Colts driving for a TD after the punt. You have to factor in the odds of getting a first down in a dome, as the visiting team, against the Colts, in the fourth quarter, in your own end, etc etc etc.  Even after all that you have to remember that this isn’t a situation that exists in a vacuum. If I am playing poker, and I often am, and the odds of hitting my hand is X it is always going to be X. It is going to be X if I am playing online or live. It is going to be X if I am playing at a casino or at home. Outside circumstances will never change X.

Outside circumstances can change X in a football game in situations like last night. The math doesn’t always add up in football. As somebody who loves playing with stats trust me on this.  If football were all about plugging in the right numbers in the right situations, I would never miss a prediction and there would be no need for some many competing fantasy sites. I missed a number of predictions this week as I will probably miss some more next week (the bosses will love me for saying that last part huh?). I missed them not because I forgot to carry the one or forgot to multiply by the reciprocal, but because stats and math is only part of the equation in predicting results in fantasy football.

What say you?