By Adam Conn:

We hate Thursday games – Except for Thanksgiving, of course. But for all fantasy owners, the Thursday game disrupts the flow of the week. Information is rushed and incomplete, and for crying out loud not everyone has the NFL Network, denying millions of cable subscribers a chance to watch prime time football. Not to mention, there’s some psychological disadvantage in playing your guys early leaving you with a little less ammo to fire out on Sunday and/or Monday night. Regardless, two teams will face off every Thursday between now and Week 16 and the match ups will be dictated primarily on their strengths and weaknesses – just like every other week. Long story short (too late), Here’s the 411 breakdown of tonight’s game between the Bears and 49ers.

Running Back:

CHI: True, the Titans Chris Johnson ran wild against the 49ers, but overall San Fran has been quite good against the run, fourth in the league at 90.5 rushing yards allowed per game. Even with last week’s 153 yards rushing for Tennessee, the 49ers have remained strong over the last month allowing just 101 yards per game, 10th best in the league. Clearly last week was the exception to the rule, which is why I’m not a fan of Matt Forte, who is as close to a first round flop as it gets. He has just three touchdowns and what we would consider two quality starts under his belt this season, both against dismal run defenses (Detroit, Cleveland). What keeps Forte on the radar is his contributions in the passing game. He averages 87.5 total yards per game, which translates into a very respectable 1,400 yards, But without touchdowns, his value is barely that of a No. 2 fantasy back. Start with caution.

SF: Gore’s value took a hit with an early season foot injury, but he’s been easily forgiven based on the games he has played in full. After a rough first game back in Week 7 (47 total yards), Gore has amassed 174 rushing yards, 118 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Going up against a declining Bears defense means more of the same. The Bears rank 21st against the run, but over the last month they rank 26th. Gore is a must start in all formats. Consider him a top-end fantasy back even on just a few days of rest.

Quarterback:

CHI: Last week the 49ers were beat up on the ground, and as a result limited the Titans to 163 passing yards, but overall they rank 24th against the pass allowing 241 passing yards per game. Most weeks San Francisco is at a disadvantage, although S Michael Lewis (quadriceps) will return to the lineup, and Jay Cutler ideally has a good match up in front of him. Despite his struggles on the road (7 TDs, 10 ints), Cutler should be able to take advantage of a 49ers defense that has given up over 30 points per game in its last four contests.

SF: Alex Smith has improved the 49ers passing attack as proven by his six touchdown passes in three games (compared to the five Shaun Hill threw between Weeks 1-6), but he also added a turnover element with five picks and a fumble lost in those three games. That aside the Bears have been less than impressive against the pass, allowing 16 touchdown passes, including five last week against Arizona and five to Cincinnati in Week 7. Smith wont come close to that mark, but he seems to be developing better relationships with his receivers than Shaun Hill did. He’s not the most attractive option this week, but if Smith is your backup to Matt Schaub or Eli Manning, you could do worse.

Wide receiver:

CHI: Devin Hester remains the top target for the Bears. Over the last four weeks he’s averaging a hair under seven receptions and 90 yards a game and he’s put an end to the speculation as to which Bears receiver will emerge this week debate. He is worth a look this week as a fair No. 2 or great flex option against the 49ers, who have allowed three 100+ yard receivers in the last four games (Tennessee’s Nate Washington had 94 yards last week).

SF: While Michael Crabtree had a set back last week (3-30), he quickly has become Smith’s second favorite target (23 in three weeks) while compiling 14 receptions and 167 yards. They have yet to hook up in the end zone, but their time is coming. The Bears have allowed five 100 yard receivers this season. Josh Morgan looks like he’ll start over Issac Bruce (ankle), and Jason Hill will play out of the slot as the No. 3 wideout. Hill had four receptions, 50 yards and two touchdowns last week, but it was also his only statistical output all year. To expect a repeat performance is unrealistic. Stick with Crabtree as a No. 3 receiver.

Tight End:

CHI: If it weren’t for his six touchdowns, TE Greg Olsen would be having a Matt Forte-esque kind of season. He’s fifth on the team with 27 receptions. He ranks 15th and 16th in receptions and yards respectively among tight ends. The 49ers, however, have been a little loose in the tight end category lately, allowing 242 yards on 17 receptions to opposing tight ends in their last three games. Considering the trend, this presents a good match up for Olsen.

SF: Vernon Davis has emerged as one of the elite tight ends in the league. He’ll need to match that intensity today after he put out the bulletin board material, calling out Chicago’s defensive front. The Bears haven’t been as forgiving against opposing tight ends as the 49ers have been, 11-103 over the last four games, but four catches have gone for touchdowns, something Davis has been collecting in bulk (seven in his last five games). As the top targeted receiver on the team he has proven to be a must start.

Defense:

The Bears are not what they once were, in large part due to injuries to LB Brian Urlacher and LB Pisa Tinoisamoa who are both done for the year; SS Al Afalava and S Kevin Payne haven’t practiced this week and likely won’t play; CB Charles Tillman left last week’s game and was limited this week; DT Tommie Harris may be suspended for his sucker punch of OL Deuce Lutui last week. This is a banged up and depleted unit and should not be considered in fantasy circles.
The 49ers have been a bit erratic lately and haven’t generated enough fantasy prowess to be considered on a weekly basis. Once in a while a match up presents itself to be great, but this isn’t one of them. Their 24th ranked pass defense combined with Jay Cutler’s ability to play like a top 10 quarterback isn’t worth the risk this week.

Kicker:

The way both defenses have been performing lately, Robbie Gould or Joe Nedney could be considered decent starts. Weather doesn’t appear to be a factor tonight (%20 chance of showers), so if you play kicker roulette, flip a coin and enjoy roughly seven to nine points out of either one.

Prediction: San Francisco 24, Chicago 20.
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