BY ADAM HELBLING

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..

QB Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers – Rodgers has averaged 314 yards passing per game over the last five weeks of the season and has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four straight games. Vikings CB Antoine Winfield is denying reports that he has a broken foot and claims to be getting ready to play this week, but even with him in the line-up the team has struggled against the pass. Over the last five weeks the Vikings have given up 287 yards passing and 1.6 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position. When Rodgers faced the Vikings in Week 4 he threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns.

RB Steve Slaton Houston Texans – Over the last five weeks of the season the Bills defense has given up 234 yards rushing and 1.6 rushing touchdowns per contest, including 318-2 to the Jets two weeks ago. During this same period of time Slaton has averaged 107 offensive yards and one touchdown per game.  Despite a slight case of fumbleitis lately, HC Gary Kubiak has expressed his full confidence in Slaton, whose involvement in the Texans passing game gives him more value in PPR leagues.

WR Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Jaguars – Sims-Walker is quickly turning into one of the league’s elite wide receivers averaging 97 yards receiving and 0.6 touchdowns per game over the last five weeks. He should be in for another strong week against a Titans secondary that is giving up 208 yards receiving and 2.8 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers during the same period of time.

Sell

QB Matt Schaub Houston Texans – An under performing running game has forced to Texans to lean on Schaub and the passing game. Neither have disappointed. Over the last five weeks of the season Schaub has averaged 310 yards passing and 2.4 touchdowns per contest. Hitting those numbers could be tough this week against a Bills defense giving up just 151 yards passing and one touchdown per contest during the same period of time to opposing quarterbacks.

RB Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings – Peterson is one of those guys you simply don’t sit regardless of their match-up. However, Peterson owners should keep their expectations low this week against a Packers defense giving up 78 yards rushing and one touchdown per game over the last five weeks. In Week 4 match-up between the two teams, Peterson ran for 55 yards and one touchdown. Over the last five weeks Peterson has averaged 84 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per contest – Good but not Peterson-great.

WR Andre Johnson Houston Texans - Johnson’s production was limited last week as he had to leave the game due to lung contusion. He  is currently listed as ‘day-to-day’ and is likely to be a game-time decision this Sunday. If the injury doesn’t worry you, the fact that the Bills have only given up 73 yards receiving and 0.2 touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks might.

TE Vernon Davis San Francisco 49ers – Davis has been one of the league’s elite tight ends over the last five weeks averaging 71 yards receiving and 1.5 touchdowns per contest. During the same period of time the Colts have given up only 42 yards receiving per game and have yet to allow a touchdown to the position all season. Davis’ string of setting career highs comes to an end – If you have a better option, this might be the week to use it.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Five of the six quarterbacks that the Titans have faced this season have thrown for over 300 yards. In Week 4 Garrard threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. Over the last five weeks of the season the Titans have given up an average of 309 yards passing and 3.5 touchdowns per game. See a pattern?

QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Over the last five weeks Cutler has averaged 235 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest. He struggled this past week throwing for three interceptions in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Things should be easier for him this week against a Browns defense that has given up 281 yards rushing and 1.6 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – Tomlinson has averaged only 52 yards rushing per contest over the last five weeks, but has topped 70 yards rushing the last two weeks. Look for those numbers to get a boost this week against a Raiders defense giving up 171 yards rushing and 1.4 rushing touchdowns per contest over the last five weeks.

WR Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys -  Austin has averaged 211 yards receiving and two touchdowns a game since emerging on the scene in Dallas and he appears to have finally solved the team’s trouble at wide receiver. Fantasy owners lucky enough to have plucked him from the waiver wire should be in for another good week against a Seahawks defense giving up 194 yards receiving and 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game over the last five weeks.

Sell

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Ryan has failed to hit 200 yards passing in each of his last two games and has thrown two interceptions in three straight games. It won’t get any easier this week against a Saints defense that is giving up just 189 yards passing and 0.5 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last five weeks.

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers were playing from behind and it was his first week back from injury so Gore’s 32 yards rushing last week could be forgiven. The problem is that they are probably going to be playing from behind again against a Colts defense that has given up only 100 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown over the last five weeks to opposing running backs.

RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – Few people have noticed thanks to the Titans horrible start to the season, but Johnson is quietly putting together a solid season. The problem is that the Titans are often forced to abandon the run and Johnson is getting few looks inside the red zone. In fact, over the last five weeks he has been utilized in just one play inside the 20. During this same period of time he has averaged 86 yards rushing per contest. He faces a tough match-up this week against the Jaguars who are giving up only 90 yards rushing and zero TDs to opposing running backs during the same period of time. In Week 4 against the Jaguars Johnson had 83 yards rushing.

WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – Rice has been the Vikings most targeted receiver over the last five weeks averaging 8.2 looks, 100 yards receiving and 0.4 touchdowns per game. With the Packers giving up only 73 yards receiving and 0.5 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers during the same period of time, duplicating those numbers will be difficult.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Marc Bulger? * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Marc Bulger St. Louis Rams - Bulger has averaged only 177 yards passing and 0.5 touchdowns per contest over his last two starts. However, if you have bye trouble and are in a deep league he could get you through the week as he faces a Lions defense giving up 279 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns per contest to the quarterback position over the last five weeks.

WR Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans – The Jaguars defense has given up an average of 174 yards receiving and two touchdowns per contest to the wide receivers over the last five weeks. If you are in a pinch due to byes, Washington might be worth a look.

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