Risk Management: Week 5

October 7 2009 one Commented

By Adam Helbling

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS

Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs.

Buy

QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – The Titans defense is giving up 304 yards passing and 2.5 touchdowns per game. As a unit, they have given up the most passing yards and second most passing touchdowns this season. Manning is averaging 334 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns a game. As well as Manning has played this season and as poor as the Titans defense is, [joke]Jim Sorgi might be worth a start this week as well[/joke].

WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts – With Manning clicking at quarterback it is no surprise that Wayne is as well. The Colts No. 1 wide receiver is averaging 100 yards receiving per contest and has scored three touchdowns in his first four games of the season.  The Titans are currently giving up 203 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdowns per contest to opposing wide receivers.

WR DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson was MIA in Week 1 with only two receptions and 9 yards receiving. However, he followed that up with two straight games of over 100 yards and one touchdown. He will face-off against a Tampa Bay defense giving up 150 yards receiving and two touchdowns per game to the wide receivers.

Sell

(photo by usatoday.com)

(photo by usatoday.com)

QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots – The Broncos have yet to give up a passing touchdown this season and are giving up only 181 yards passing per game. It is tough to bench Brady who averages 282 yards passing and one passing touchdown per contest, but if you have better options this might be the week to do it.

RB Stephen Jackson, St Louis Rams – As the only viable fantasy starter in St Louis not on defense, Jackson is averaging 92 yards rushing per contest. The Vikings defense has been one of the league’s best in defending against the run. As a unit they have allowed just 63 yards rushing per game and only one touchdown over the first four weeks of the season.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS

A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Roethlisberger is averaging 298 yards passing and 1.3 touchdowns per contest and making a push to be included among the top tier fantasy quarterbacks. He faces a Lions defense giving up 252 yards passing and three touchdowns per contest.

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – Romo has taken a lot of heat for his lack of production so far this season. He is averaging 248 yards passing and one touchdown per contest but should dodge the criticism this week against a Chiefs defense giving up 259 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest.

WRs Nate Burleson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks – Neither player has been particularly explosive this season with Burleson averaging 65 yards receiving and Houshmandzadeh averaging just 62 yards receiving per game. However, they face a Jaguars defense giving up 206 yards receiving and 1.3 touchdowns per contest to the wide receiver position.

WR Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ward has yet to find the end zone for the Steelers this season, but is leading the team in receptions and receiving yards averaging 6.5 and 89 respectively per game. For the season the Lions are giving up 161 yards receiving and 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers.

Sell

(photo by espn.com)

(photo by espn.com)

RB Joesph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai is averaging 71 offensive yards per game and has scored three touchdowns through the first four games of the season. He has made a nice flex or weak No. 2 running back for many fantasy teams. We don’t see it happening this week against a Titans defense that has given up just one rushing touchdown and 63 yards rushing per contest to the running back position.

RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – Smith has shown that Calvin Johnson isn’t the only Lion worthy of a fantasy roster spot this season, averaging 84 offensive yards per game and scoring three touchdowns over the first four weeks. The Steelers have had some struggles defending the pass this season, but have been solid against the run in allowing just one rushing touchdown for the season and 56 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs.

WR Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – Moss is averaging 73 yards receiving per contest and has recorded a touchdown in each of his last two games. But he faces a Panthers defense that has given up just one touchdown and 104 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Tim Hightower?  * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

(photo by espn.com)

(photo by espn.com)

QB Seneca Wallace, Seattle Seahawks – Wallace has done a good job filling in for injured QB Matt Hasselbeck. Over the last two games he has averaged 259 yards passing and one touchdown. If Hasselbeck misses another start this week, Wallace makes a nice option against a Jaguars defense allowing 288 and 1.8 touchdowns per game.

RBs Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – Over the first month of the season the Cleveland Browns are giving up 154 yards rushing and two touchdowns per game. The pecking order at running back is still shaking out for the Bills, but depending on the size of your league both backs could make decent flex options.

RB Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals – Houston’s run defense is a lot like the Titans pass defense, you look to start whoever is facing them. For the season the Texans are giving up 136 yards rushing and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per contest to the position. Hightower is only averaging 36 yards rushing and 0.3 touchdowns per contest, but it is a tough match-up to ignore.

RB Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns – Since taking over the starting role due to Jamal Lewis’ injury, Harrison has averaged 82 yards rushing and 32 yards receiving a game. He holds more value in PPR leagues as he is averaging five receptions per contest during the same period of time. If he gets the start again this week you might want to get him in your line-up. The Bills are giving up 138 yards rushing and 1.8 rushing touchdowns per contest to opposing running backs.

Email Bling-Bling or check out Bling’s Blog.

One Response to “Risk Management: Week 5”

  1. [...] Bling (10:46) – Just caught a quick fantasy segment on ESPN promoting their fantasy program. They were making bold predictions or something. One of them was to start Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger isn’t bold…..Tim Hightower is bold. [...]

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