Risk Management: Week 3
Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might want to avoid.
Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.
BLUE CHIP STOCKS
Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs..
Buy
(photo by bebo.com)
QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – When your quarterback throws for three touchdowns less than he did the previous week you should expect to have a poor outing. Unless you have Brees, who over the first two weeks of the season is has 770 yards passing and nine touchdowns. Brees faces a Bills secondary that has given up 774 yards passing and five passing touchdowns in that same time.
RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles – Westbrook has had a slow start to his 2009 season, averaging only 58 yards rushing per game and has just one touchdown. He will get the chance to get on track this week against a Chiefs defense giving up 121 yards rushing per game and three touchdowns in the last two. Westbrook is an even stronger option in PPR leagues as the Chiefs have given up an average of six receptions, 52 yards receiving and to the running back position. Keep a close eye on the injury report as Westbrook is nursing an ankle.
WR Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers – Even with Jake Delhomme’s struggles, Smith is still posting solid fantasy numbers (214 receiving yards and 1 TD). Another big week could be in line as he faces a Cowboys defense giving up an average of 243 yards receiving and one touchdown per contest to opposing wide receivers this season.
TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers – You should like Gates’ match-up this week against a Dolphins defense that gave up 183 yards receiving and one touchdown to Dallas Clark. Gates has averaged 81 yards receiving per game and the Dolphins have given up 128 yards receiving and one touchdown per contest to the position.
Sell
RB Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed in the sell section of this article doesn’t mean you shouldn’t start him. Sitting a guy averaging 127 yards rushing and 49 yards receiving per game with three total touchdowns this season is near impossible. However, Johnson faces a Jets defense that has given up only 57 yards rushing and zero touchdowns per contest to the position.
RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Like Johnson, it would be difficult to sit Gore. With the Minnesota Vikings giving up just 85 yards rushing and zero rushing touchdowns over the first two weeks of the season to the position, it might be the right call to make if you have better options.
WR Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – White owners were probably expecting more than the 96 yards receiving and 1 touchdown he has over the last two weeks. His numbers could continue to disappoint against the Patriots who have given up just 200 yards receiving and zero touchdowns per contest to wide receivers.
DEFENSIVE STOCKS
A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.
Buy
photo by flickr.com
QB Eli Manning, New York Giants – Opposing defenses have been stacking up against the run and forcing Manning to beat them. So far that plan has back fired with Manning averaging 293 yards passing per game with three touchdowns this season. Look for another good week from Manning as the Buccaneers are giving up an average of 292 yards passing per game along with five touchdowns.
RBs Ray Rice/Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens – While the Ravens aren’t leaning on the run as they have in years past, there is certainly still value at the position for the team. Sliding one of the Ravens running backs into your line-up is a good option to have against a Browns defense giving up 372 yards rushing and five touchdowns to opposing running backs in Week’s 1 and 2.
WRs Chansi Stuckey/Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets – Nobody has given up more receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than the Titans. Over the last two weeks they have given up an average of 248 yards receiving and two touchdowns per contest to the position.
TE Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints – Over the first two weeks of the season Shockey has averaged 40 yards receiving and one touchdown per game. Shockey should be in line for another strong outing this week against a Bills defense giving up 99 yards receiving and two touchdowns per contest to opposing tight ends.
Sell
QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Cutler bounced back nicely from a bad Week 1 performance with 236 yards passing and two touchdowns against the Steelers last Sunday. But Cutler owners could be in for another disappointing week as he faces a Seahawks defense giving up only 168 yards passing yards per game and have yet to give up a passing touchdown this season.
RB Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – Benson has been a nice surprise for fantasy owners this season, averaging a touchdown and over 100 yards rushing per contest. Things get more difficult this week against the Steelers who have given up only 65 yards rushing and zero touchdowns to opposing running backs.
WR Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys – Williams has 104 yards and 1 TD in two over the first two weeks of the season. A boost in those numbers might be difficult against a Panthers defense giving up only 97 yards receiving per game with just one touchdown allowed to the wide receiver position.
TE Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – Miller owners might want to look elsewhere this week with the Broncos giving up just 16 yards receiving and zero touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
PENNY STOCKS
Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Jason Campbell?
* Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*
Buy
photo by packers.gearupforsports.com
QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins – Campbell has averaged 227 yards passing a game with just one touchdown so far this season. But with the Lions giving up an average of 264 yards passing and four touchdowns per contest, Campbell makes a nice option.
QB Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – As good as the Titans have been against the run, they have been equally bad defending the pass. Over the last two weeks the Titans defense has given up 720 yards passing and 5 touchdowns.
RBs Tim Hightower/Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – The Colts will be thankful they won’t be facing another ‘Wildcat’ offense this week. The Cardinals will be thankful to be facing a Colts defense giving up 168 yards rushing per game and three touchdowns to date to opposing running backs.
TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers – With the Rams giving up an average of 88 yards receiving and one touchdown per contest to tight ends, Finley makes a nice Week 3 option.
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