By Adam Helbling:

(Feature photo by slate.com)

Risk Management is a weekly article dedicated to making sure that you get the most out of your fantasy roster and waiver wire pick-ups. It will feature Blue Chips (Studs), Defensive Stocks (Mid-tier players), and Penny Stocks (players likely available on your waiver wire). A player listed in the ‘buy’ section of the article is a player that has a favorable match-up going into the week. A player listed in the ‘sell’ section has a match-up that you might just want to avoid.

Keep in mind that simply because a player is listed as a ‘sell’ does not mean he should be absent from your starting line-up. Who you have (or don’t have) in reserve matters just as much as any match-up does. Another important thing to remember is that just like on the stock market, a Blue Chip can have a bad week and still out-perform Defensive Stocks and/or Penny Stocks.

BLUE CHIP STOCKS

Stocks of leading and nationally known companies that offer a record of continuous dividend payments and other strong investment qualities or…fantasy football studs.

Buy

QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – If you are McNabb owner worried about a QB controversy, stop it. Michael Vick is suspended and McNabb plays a Panthers defense that gave up 265 yards passing and two touchdowns per contest over the last month of 2008.

RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles – As bad as the Panthers were against the pass over the last month of 2008, they were even worse against the run giving up 203 yards rushing per contest.

WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – Having a rookie quarterback throwing to your No. 1 wide receiver isn’t a dream scenario, but having you No. 1 wide receiver play the Saints is. Over the last four games of 2008 the Saints gave up 189 yards receiving and 1.8 receiving touchdowns per contest.

TE Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons – The Dolphins defense gave up 67 yards receiving per game to opposing tight ends over the last four weeks of 2008, but more importantly also gave up 1.8 receiving TDs during the same period of time.

Sell

QB Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – The 49ers want to be a run first/ball control offense this year, which could mean less offensive snaps for Warner. As well, the 49ers defense gave up only 169 yards passing and one touchdown per game over the last four weeks of 2008.

RB DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – It could be a tough week for Williams owners as he faces an Eagles defense that gave up only 74 yards rushing and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per contest over the last four weeks of 2008.

WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals pass the ball enough for both Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to have consistent fantasy value, but maybe not this week. The 49ers gave up only 82 yards receiving and 0.5 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over the last four weeks of the season.

TE Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins – Facing a defense that gave up 32 yards receiving to opposing tight ends over the last four weeks of 2008 does not a good match-up make.

DEFENSIVE STOCKS

A stock purchased from a company that has maintained a record of stable earnings and continuous dividend payments through periods of economic downturn….or fantasy players without the flash of the studs, but steady contributors when you need them.

Buy

QB Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins – Pennington is one of this years more underrated quarterbacks. He gets a chance to show why this week facing a Falcons defense that gave up 241 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks of 2008.

RB Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys – The Buccaneers defense was one of the league’s worst against the run over the last four weeks of 2008. As a unit, they gave up an average of 182 yards rushing and two touchdowns to the running back position during this period of time.

WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams – One of the reasons Avery rushed back from his foot injury might be because he faces the Seahawks Week 1. Over the last four weeks last season, the Seahawks gave up an average of 205 yards receiving and 1.3 touchdowns per contest to opposing wide receivers.

TE Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints – If you weren’t able to pick up one of the elite tight ends, Shockey is a good option this week. Over the last four weeks of 2008 the Lions gave up an average of 78 yards receiving and 0.8 touchdowns to the tight end position.

Sell

QB Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – The Browns were the only team not to give up a passing touchdown over the last four weeks of 2008 and gave up just 200 yards passing during the same period of time.

RB Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers – The Titans defense gave up, on average, only 70 yards rushing and zero rushing touchdowns per contest over the last four weeks of the season to opposing running backs.

WR Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Cowboys defense were one of the league’s best defending against opposing wide receivers over the last four weeks of 2008. During this period of time they gave up, on average, 117 yards receiving and 0.8 touchdowns per contest.

TE John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks – We think Carlson could surprise some people this season and provide solid production from the tight end position. That production will probably have to wait until Week 2. Carlson faces a Rams defense that gave up, on average, 27 yards receiving and zero touchdowns per contest over the last four weeks of 2008.

PENNY STOCKS

Low-priced speculative issues of stock selling at less than $1.00 a share or… you have got to be kidding, Shaun Hill?  * Due to the fact that these are the type of players you would only start with a good great match-up there will be no ‘Sell’ section for Penny Stocks.*

Buy

QB Shaun Hill, San Francisco 49ers – Over the last four weeks of 2008, the Cardinals gave up an average of 246 yards passing and 2.5 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position.

RB Mike Bell, New Orleans Saints – If Pierre Thomas misses Week 1, Bell could be a surprise Week 1 option. Over the last four weeks of 2008, the Lions gave up an average of 153 yards rushing and two rushing touchdowns per contest.

RB Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks offensive line has been decimated by injuries. It might not matter this week against a Rams defense that gave up, on average, 167 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown per contest over the last four weeks of 2008.

WR Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks – Burleson has lasted into the late 12^th round in most leagues. That could turn out to be great value as he faces a defense that gave up, on average, 167 yards receiving and one receiving touchdown over the last four weeks of 2008.

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