Nearly every fantasy football website and magazine will tell you they have the secret formula to winning your fantasy football league. The reality is that there is some luck in fantasy football. Most fantasy football leagues are a head-to-head format and it is entirely possible to be one of the highest scoring teams in your league each week and never win a single game. Although there is no secret formula to winning a championship here are some of the key ingredients towards a successful season.

Running Backs

There is a reason why LaDainian Tomlinson was the first overall pick in most leagues in recent years. It is because running backs win fantasy football games. Despite more teams going to a RBBC (running back by committee), your first round pick should almost always be a running back. Many fantasy owners and experts will endorse a Value Based Draft (VBD) or suggest drafting the best available player. But the drop-off in points at the running back position can be so great that finding a top-10 fantasy back to carry your team will likely be the key to your season.

Using Yahoo’s standard scoring system last season the top running back was Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams with 286 fantasy points*. Brian Westbrook of Philadelphia was 10th with 216. At wide receiver the No. 1 scorer was Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald with 215 points while New England’s Randy Moss finished 10th with 163. The drop-off from one-to-10 at running back was 70 points while the drop-off at wide receiver was 52. Additionally, some receivers were taken as fliers or went undrafted last year, but still put up quality numbers. Tampa Bay’s Antonio Bryant finished 8th among receivers. Saints WR Lance Moore placed 14th and Broncos WR Eddie Royal cracked the top 20. Furthermore, Fitzgerald’s 215 points wouldn’t even put him among the top 10 in running backs, emphasizing that drafting running backs early is essential.

Quarterbacks

Above it’s noted that there is a greater point differential at running back from one to 10 than there is at wide receiver. The same cannot be said at quarterback as the difference from one to 10 is 90 points. So why not take a quarterback with your first overall pick? Easy – in most leagues you start two running backs, sometimes three given a flex option. You should get good value out of Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. Last year he finished 2nd among quarterbacks but this year isn’t being drafted until the mid-4th round in most 10-team leagues*. Matt Cassell, Chad Pennington, David Garrard and Tyler Thigpen, who likely went undrafted in your league last year, all placed ahead of Cowboys QB Tony Romo. That is not to say draft Garrard ahead of Romo, but it shows that you can stock-up on running backs early and still get a solid quarterback in the middle or later rounds.

Wide Receivers

There’s an owner in every league that takes a wide receiver too early. Don’t be that guy. Even ignoring the point differential from spots 1-10 in the rankings, the depth at wide receiver is much greater than at running back. Last season there were 27 receivers that had at least 900 yards receiving, and only 20 running backs that totaled at least 900 yards rushing. There are more wide receivers that can serve as a weak No. 2 or strong No. 3 receiver than there are running backs. You can also get quality depth at receiver later in your draft – traditionally there are 32 opening-day starting running backs to 64 receivers – and on draft day, that running back pool gets shallow awfully quick.

Tight End

Tight ends are contributing more than in recent years. No longer do players like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates dominate the rankings. That doesn’t mean there aren’t a few to be had earlier than others. Gonzo, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark could be considered a third wide receiver on some fantasy teams, and they present the best options at tight end. But the drop-off from top to bottom isn’t as significant as it once was. Should you miss out on one of the above, there are plenty of opportunities to grab quality tight ends later. Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels, Chris Cooley or Dustin Keller (among others) can provide the boost a roster needs on any given week, they just aren’t as consistent as the top four.

Kicker

Drafting a kicker is like playing bingo. Some days you’ll hit, others not as well. If you have a chance to draft one from a high scoring team (Gotskowski, Patriots; Kaeding, Chargers, etc.) go for it. But don’t ignore depth at other positions in favor of a kicker. Many kickers – Kris Brown, Lawrence Tynes, Nick Folk, Robbie Gould, for example – are capable of producing a top 10 season at a very reasonable price (ie. the final two or three rounds of a draft).

Exceptions

Running backs win fantasy football games…unless your league is different. If you are in a touchdown only league, one that starts two quarterbacks or a PPR league for wide receivers only, you might want to rethink “the golden rule”. Exceptions exist, but more often than not going with a running back early and often in your draft is the way to go.

Conclusion

As mentioned above, exceptions exist. The bottom line, however, is that there are fewer top-end running backs than wide receivers. Additionally, there are not as many mid-tier running backs, putting a premium on that position versus wide receivers. While the point differential at quarterback in the top 10 is greater, in most leagues you start two or three running backs versus one quarterback. Get em’early, get em’ often and always remember that running backs win fantasy football games.

*-Unless noted standard yahoo league scoring was used to calculate points in a 10 team league.
*- ADP is according to the most recent mock draft calculations from Fantasy Football Calculator.

~ Email us with comments